cleveland ohio RC notes (page 2)

I would have thought that 38 baptized is very, very small given the peak attendance of 7,100. That's about 5 baptisms for every 1,000, which works out to be 0.005 - that doesn't even cover a natural death rate of about 1% to 2% a year.

sir82

There are 3 occasions for baptism per year, so 0.5% X 3 = 1.5% ratio of baptisms / attendance / year.

US growth rate for JWs is around 1% per year per the Yearbooks - so the count of baptisms is about what I would expect.

Of course the usual caveats - JWs measure their growth by "publishers", not "baptisms", but well over 90% of unbaptized "publishers" eventually get baptized at some point, so measuring "baptism ratio" is still a fairly meaningful proxy for anticipating what the "publisher growth" will be.

I.e., the number of "new baptisms" probably closely correlates to the number of "new publishers" each year.

UnshackleTheChains

Saw no brothers with beards

Wow. It looks like Scotland is leading the way. Everywhere you looked around at our convention, there was someone wearing a beard (men of course 😂)

RubaDub

It looks like Scotland is leading the way. Everywhere you looked around at our convention, there was someone wearing a beard (men of course)

Unshackle ...

That is the same with the Italian assemblies. Many men (and women) with beards.

Rub a Dub

steve2

There are 3 occasions for baptism per year, so 0.5% X 3 = 1.5% ratio of baptisms / attendance / year.

Sir 82, there are some serious misuses - and likely misunerstadings - of percentages here. The sentence betrays numerous statistical missteps.

You do not multiply percentages of baptisms across three conventions - it inflates the actual percentage. If the number of baptisms across 3 conventions is roughly the same, then the percentage does not increase - it stays the same. The only time a percentage would increase in relation to attendance is if the numbers baptized vary substantially across the conventions with similar numbers attending.

Also, you have managed to apply a percentage and a ratio to the very same number. Are you sure you know how a percentage differs from a ratio? Please consult an introductory text on percentages and how to use them.

UnshackleTheChains

That is the same with the Italian assemblies. Many men (and women) with beards

Wow rubadub. The women there letting it go. There wasn't even one sister sporting a Tom Berenger/Burt Reynolds tache this year

stillin

Math is not my strongest subject, but I keep hearing about older brothers and sisters in neighboring congregations who are passing away. And kids who leave. And adults who leave.

What do those numbers do to the assumed growth statistic based on baptisms? Flatline growth, maybe?

konceptual99

There is also no real indication of how many people have serious doubts and are essentially going through the motions. I know of at least 4 brothers who are not what I would call mentally out but have serious questions about things and are drifting in terms of reaching out because they can't face pushing things they are not sure about themselves. I suspect the true number of those in a similar position is much higher.

Sandino

@ Rubadub. I've see pics of brothers in California with short beards. I know of many brothers in Oregon with beards. The look is also being seen much more in Washington state. I don't hear of any other parts of the US where it is being seen. Maybe it's a Wild West type mentality.

cleveland ohio RC notes

Share this