The Slippery Slope

by donkey 47 Replies latest social current

  • donkey
    donkey

    This is not an issue related directly to this board, but it is an issue related to every one of us here. It seems to me as if society is about to undergo a radical upheaval in the form of an new energy crisis. To put it simply we are running out of oil. I am not going to post all the details but if you want them you can message me and I will be more than happy to do so.


    The growth of capitalism has spurred the world into an increasing consumption of oil. On the supply side ? we don?t have enough to sustain ourselves over time even if demand remains stagnant. Frankly, we are toast and have no chance to escape this impending disaster. I predict that while everyone focuses on Social Security and the other entitlement programs facing the US we will suddenly find ourselves in the way of the perfect storm ? Oil at near $75 a barrel. I will go out on a limb here and say this will occur within the next 24 months ? if not have at me guys. Ridicule me like we ridicule the borg?but I have little reason to believe I am wrong on this.

    Richard Heinburg asks readers of his new book, ?The Party?s Over ? Oil and the fate of industrial societies? to:

    ?Try the following thought experiment. Go to the center of a city and find a comfortable place to sit. Look around and ask yourself: Where and how is energy being used? What forms of energy are being consumed, and what work is that energy doing? Notice the details of buildings, cars, buses, streetlights, and so on; notice also the activities of the people around you. What kinds of occupations do these people have, and how do they use energy in their work? Try to follow some of the strands of the web of relationships between energy, jobs, water, food, heating, construction, goods distribution, transportation, and maintenance that together keep the city thriving.?

    ?After you have spent at least 20 minutes appreciating energy's role in the life of this city, imagine what the scene you are viewing would look like if there were 10 percent less energy available. What substitutions would be necessary? What choices would people make? What work would not get done? Now imagine the scene with 25 percent less energy available; with 50 percent less; with 75 percent less.?

    I suggest people need to prepare for both the financial and the social consequences if I am correct on this issue. I have long railed for exploitation of alternate renewable energy sources but they have not emerged. The reason is simple: there has been no incentive in a capitalist society to find alternatives. Shortly, this will all change as our oil-driven energy systems become the societal pivots to the next revolution in the industrialized world.

    Anyway this is just another piece of my boring world. I have too much time to think and no one to talk to about this so I thought I would share it with the board. I have been preparing myself to profit financially from this inevitable event, but I fear that if the problem reaches the proportion it could I may not escape the consequences on society.

    Ever the cheerful,
    Ass

  • Simon
    Simon

    I think western capitalism is very dependant on Oil but society isn't totally dependant on it.

    Perhaps one of the first things to suffer would be globalisation and movement of goods (higher transportation costs). I don't think this would be a bad thing in itself.

    We could tighten our belts a lot too - there is a lot of wastage.

    BTW: We already pay substantially more for our fuel than the US does so perhaps we would not notice it as much.

  • talesin
    talesin

    My post disappeared! Simon, it's all yr fault *bump* (simultaneous posting)

    donkey

    applause from the balcony

    You're right, a change is coming, it could be catastrophic. Keep on writing stuff like this, informing people; do what you can, network with like minds so you don't get too down about the whole thing. Creating positive energy for change. That's my way of looking at it.

    talesin

  • donkey
    donkey
    I think western capitalism is very dependant on Oil but society isn't totally dependant on it

    I would have to disagree. We are totally dependent on oil. If we oil prices rocket everyone is toast. The cost of all goods and services would rise dramatically. Oil is used in so many other things apart from petrol/gasoline too - I have one word for you - "plastic".

    Perhaps one of the first things to suffer would be globalisation and movement of goods (higher transportation costs). I don't think this would be a bad thing in itself.

    We could tighten our belts a lot too - there is a lot of wastage.

    I agree with you on this point.

    BTW: We already pay substantially more for our fuel than the US does so perhaps we would not notice it as much.

    You would just pay more in the same proportion - IMHO. When the oil embargo (an artifical crisis as opposed to a global shortage) occurred in the early 70's everyone was affected. In the short term some may be affected more than others but over time we are all facing this issue together. The only chance we have of solving it is by rallying together vs warring over it. Unfortunately, IMO greed will revail and I forsee the latter being the course of choice. i am not going to count on governments (in whom I have little to no faith for problem solving) to help me out. Jack

  • Simon
    Simon

    Yes, costs go up and the economic viability of some things changes. But this doesn't end society - it just changes it.

    People just have to change their lifestyles. If they have extravagant lifestyles that are very/more dependant on oil then they are going to hurt more than those who don't.

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan

    Lotsa Hummers gonna be sitting in garages when gas prices reach $5 a gallon.

    Dumbasses.

  • talesin
    talesin

    DanTheMan

    Every time I see one of those things ....... sheesh WTH? *penis extensions* lol

    t

  • got my forty homey?
    got my forty homey?

    Does this mean that I have EVEN more reasing to kill myslef before ARMAGEDDON?

  • jgnat
    jgnat

    Donkey, my junior high debate topic was on the oil crisis. I read some pretty convincing stuff - produced by the oil companies - that proved, without a shadow of a doubt, that we would be out of oil by 1990. Convinced, I did not bother to get my driver's license.

    Boy, am I embarrassed now.

    What happened between '73 and now? Market forces brought new innovations. Technology has found ways to release oil out of massive oil sands in our own province. Our cars don't guzzle like they used to, and if prices go up, those lovely hybrid and hydrogen vehicles are gonna rise in popularity. As an organism adapts to it's new environment, I am now confident that our society will adjust to whatever comes along.

    Personally, I think we abandoned nuclear energy far too early.

  • DanTheMan
    DanTheMan

    I think the ideas of the great, nay, SUPER genius of alternative, Acme rocket-based transportation, Wile E. Coyote, have been ignored for far too long.

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