Euph,
I think you're right. I didn't realize the mutation rate is so low. I found this explanation (which sounds a lot like what you probably read) by Alec MacAndrew:
The normally accepted rate is one mutation every 300 to 600 generations (6000 to 12000 years) and this is calibrated, as Wieland correctly says, by counting mutations in great ape and human mitochondria and regressing back to the age of their divergence as determined by fossils dated by radiometric dating.
Source: http://www.evolutionpages.com/Mitochondrial%20Eve.htm
Since mutations occur at this low rate, it is not possible to directly observe a rate of observation. As you point out, this would make this evidence secondary (at least as far as determining a date for most recent common matrilineal ancestor). To state the problem in another way for anyone who is having trouble following along:
- We know from direct observation that mitochondrial DNA is passed down from a mother to her children.
- We predict from the above observation that a) closely related groups of humans will have similar or identical mtDNA, and b) disperate groups of humans will have divergent mtDNA, and c) the greater the geneological distance, the greater the divergence in mtDNA will be.
- We know from direct observation that those predictions are true.
- Since logic tells us that at some point in time we had a common matrilineal ancestor (for logical proof see: http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/homs/mitoeve.html), we know that the differences in mtDNA that we see in the human population have occurred since our most recent common ancestor by matrilineal descent.
- The question is, how often do mutations occur? Only by coming up with a rate of mutations can we get an actual date for the most recent common ancestor.
- Since the mutation rate is too slow to be observed, it was extrapolated by the means given above.
Actually, even disregarding the question of the convergence date, mtDNA provides us with a lot of geneological data, very similar in application to the retroviral sequences and cytochrome c sequences I posted about earlier.
One interesting implication is shown by comparing mtDNA from humans on the different continents. In comparing a key sequence of about 900 base pairs, only 1% Europeans differed by more than 12 base pairs. The same was true in Asia. In Africa, however, 37% of people differed by more than 12 base pairs. This indicates strongly that humans have lived in Africa for the longest time, supporting the "Out Of Africa" model of human evolution.
Actually, my main point in all of this was not to establish a date for the most recent common matrilineal ancestor, but to lay down the fundamentals of mtDNA in preparation for the next installment.
Thanks for your astute observations!
SNG