WT inflating their numbers?

by Fatfreek 44 Replies latest watchtower scandals

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  Fatfreek

  There have been posts here that indicate the KH building work may be slowing in the U.S., and that there is consolidation of the congos going on. If that is true why don't we see the Society's published numbers on the decline?

  My next question is, heaven forbid, you don't suppose they're inflating the membership numbers do you? I mean, other corporations have been caught doing that sort of thing with their balance sheets. Plus the GB has been found to lie once or twice. Who would really know the difference other than a few inside headquarters?
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  the_classicist

  high turnover?
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  EvilForce

  They used to count only regular pubs it is an easy change to count those who have turned in at least 1 time sheet in the past year.
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  carla

  Nobody will ever know how they fudge the numbers as they are not held accountable to anybody. Would they agree to an independent audit? when hell freezes over! carla
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  Fatfreek

  ...they are not held accountable to anybody. Would they agree to an independent audit? when hell freezes over!

  I love the way ya put it, Carla.

  I wonder, since, they have certain tax advantages, what kinds of reports they must issue to some governmental bureaucracy. Way beyond the scope of this forum perhaps.

  Is there a former Bethelite in the house?
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  ozziepost

  There are.

  The Borgmeisters set about raising their numbers without doing anything when they instructed the elders to start counting publishers who could report just a fraction of an hour in the month.

  As the English would say, that was a nice little earner!
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  Miss_MG

  They were instructed to go to nursing homes and count the elderly wittnesses who have preached for fifteen minutes in other words they are desprate for numbers
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  Rod P

  I suspect Classicist may have put his finger on something here.

  I am an accountant, and a number of years ago I did was working on a business plan for a "direct marketing" organization. They wanted to know statistics about turnover for sales organizations. So I began a search into organizations like Amway and Shaklee, etc. What blew me away, was that they all basically experienced 100% annual turnovers. In other words, suppose one had a sales organization of 1,000,000 strong worldwide, and they still had 1,000,000 after one year. Then you look at the number of new recruits they took in during the one year period. Let's say it was 1,000,000. That would give you the impression they would have 2,000,000 after one year. Yet the statistics would show they only had 1,000,000 after one year. What this means or implies is that they would have lost 100% of their sales force, but would have had to recruit a new batch of 1,000,000 to replace the ones they lost over the past year, just to keep a level population.This is called "attrition" or "turnover".

  I have not studied the JW statistics in many years, but I would bet there has been a high turnover rate in their numbers over the years. People who are recent converts to the JW faith would tend to be more active in the publishing work than those who have been doing it for a while, for the simple fact of their fresh conviction and enthusiasm. After a while, some of that gung ho wears off. Meanwhile others leave, or are disfellowshipped. But they are replaced with the latest crop of converts.

  Now in the context of a year, those who reported field service at the beginning of the year would be counted. Then, throughout the year,some would quit, some would die, some would become inactive, while others got disfellowshipped. But to replace them would be the new converts. The question I would have, therefore, is if their time is counted, and each one is statistically counted as 1 person, but the other ones who were there before also reported time and are counted as 1 person (but later in the year quit, etc.), would that not inflate their numbers in terms of the number of publishers? I don't know the methodology they actually use these days, but I do have my suspicions.

  (Actually, I was under the impression they counted their "members" in terms of the number of baptisms, but cannot confirm this for sure.)

  Rod P.
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  ozziepost

  Rod,

  Have you read Ray Franz's books? He describes this as a 'revolving door' where they come in the front door (baptisms) and an almost equal number are leaving out the back door.

  Ozzie
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  FairMind

  The false idea of tremendous growth is fostered in the Public Talks as well. This past Sunday our visiting speaker stated that 5,000 people are baptized each week and cited this as support for growth in the organization. He mentioned how this means 50 new congregations each week (average of 100 publishers per congregation). Of course we know he is ignoring the other side of the equation, declines through death, disassociations, disfellowshipping and those who have faded into inactivity.