are a great many historians who discuss the world from 1848 (time of the european revolutions) and 1871 (time of eurpoean nation building) and how those events to occur. It was anything but a surprise
I totally agree..it was inevitable after the Franco/prussian War of 1870/1that France was always looking for revenge.
http://www.infoplease.com/ce6/history/A0858225.html
That and the Anglo French entente cordiale of 1905 established the blue print for German militaristic aims.
I always think that Russell was incredibly lucky in choosing 1914 as a pivotal Date ,but it was inevitable for 30 Years before then (or more)that a huge War was going to break out in Europe at any time and the signing of that treaty confirmed this...
So the upshot would be that the war was no surprise at all...and the constant pushing and diplomatic pressure of European nations made sure that the pre (Great)war Years were anything but peaceful.....