All of this shows that the actual length of time from the date of the exile or from Cyrus was not accurately known in the late Hellenistic and Roman periods, at least by these three writers.
Very interesting references Leolaia! These references clearly contradict themselves as you say, which I have to accept.
The only thing I would add to are the other "contradicting" references, that of Ant. 11.1.1 where Jospehus claims 70 years from the last deportation to the first of Cyrus. That's the only reference I'm matching up with Josephus as far as the Biblical timeline is concerned.
But whether these historians actually "knew" or not is up for grabs. I found a rather interesting comparison of a Rabbinical timeline that reduced the Persian Period drastrically on the surface, but consistently matches the 529BCE fall of Jerusalem and other dates with simple conversion. Thus under an oppressive rule, where say Josephus was required to harmonize his history with all others, some historians might compromise in this regard or make deductions, on the surface of things. But if they actually had more authority for a more accurate chronology, they would sometimes insinuate this in some cryptic manner in the same work. So one would have to check for those secret references. The Jews in particular, who always had "gentiles" (goyim) snooping around in their records might have created a superifical reference for the gentiles to understand but which had a hidden meaning for the learned Jewish insider. Of course, it's possible with all the revisions and confusions the true chronology was lost.
But havign noted that, I would simply place the Bible's chronology in this list as a "secular" historical source from the Jews as well and compare that chronology to these historians. So what it will boil down to, looking at all the histories, is who agrees with the Bible and who doesn't and when. Case in point, Josephus contradicts the Bible's own chronology several times, that's obvious. But other times his references seem to be right on point. So in the case of Josephus and the 70 years, I'd just say that he again contradicts himself if he assigns only 70 years from the last deportation to the first of Cyrus in Antiquities 11.1.1.
Does that mean we can dismiss Josephus as a reliable historian? You can. Certainly. Does that mean everything he reports is unreliable? Not necessarily.
Even so, with all his unreliable contradictions, which allows us not to take him so seriously or for face value, that doesn't mean we can misquote him. Claiming that he changed his mind about assigning 70 years of desolation post the fall of Jeruaslem to fifty years is not accurate. He consistently asserted that position. The "fifty years" reference can be explained if you end it when Cyrus becomes king of Persia, since there was a 20-year difference between when he became king in Persia and king in Babylon. Of course, we can claim he got confused between paragraph 19 and 21 and actually did contradict himself without correction, I suppose, but you still have to consider other scenarios in this case.
If Josephus followed Jewish tradition, which disdained the "unclean" outsiders, then besides altering his works so as to get published by not being obviously contradicting when possible, he might have delighted in including references that totally tripped up some readers while hiding secrets in his works for those that knew better. It's having one set of rules for dealing with Jews and another set of rules not binding on them for dealing with gentiles. If they misread what is written, that's their problem!
JC
