Regardless of the semantics about publishers and baptisms, the numbers (especially over a 10yr period) are sufficient to show a trend. Either there's a ton getting DF'd (there are, but not that many) or there's a ton of baptized folks that went inactive.
OneEyedJoe
JoinedPosts by OneEyedJoe
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Poignant Statistics Summary for Comment at This Sunday WT Study! (Aug. 3, 2014)
by SAHS inthe watchtower study to be considered this sunday, august 3, 2014 (using the magazine dated may 15, 2014), titled are you moving ahead with jehovahs organization?, in paragraph seven (on pages 27-28), talks about the number of people baptized in recent years:.
7 where do those making up the great crowd come from?
they are being brought together because of what jesus foretold as part of the sign of his presence.
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What Would It Take To Prove......
by metatron ina hypothetical question.. at a minimum, what evidence would it take to prove that the society is trying to quietly shed publishers?.
now, i don't think we have evidence of this yet but that doesn't mean it could never happen.
we must consider where the trends of magazine/literature cuts, branch office sales, coerced contributions, bethel/do layoffs, and emphasis on jw.org lead us.. otoh, you might argue that there would never be a deliberate move to get rid of them, just moves that discreetly abandon them.
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OneEyedJoe
Yeah, when it comes down to it, leadership by comittee is an odd beast and that may just be the only thing that's in play here. It may just be that the combination of wishful thinking and the human brain's aptitude for finding patterns (even if they don't exist) might be the driving force behind the idea of an intentional shedding of fence-sitters.
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What Would It Take To Prove......
by metatron ina hypothetical question.. at a minimum, what evidence would it take to prove that the society is trying to quietly shed publishers?.
now, i don't think we have evidence of this yet but that doesn't mean it could never happen.
we must consider where the trends of magazine/literature cuts, branch office sales, coerced contributions, bethel/do layoffs, and emphasis on jw.org lead us.. otoh, you might argue that there would never be a deliberate move to get rid of them, just moves that discreetly abandon them.
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OneEyedJoe
At the risk of turning this into something of a circle jerk, you have a good point that I hadn't considered, Vidiot. If they shed everyone all at once, the chance of a splinter group capturing a large portion of those shed goes up substantially. They don't want competition with another group that's similar, since it would fly in the face of their claims to be special and unique. It's definitely better to loose people slowly and just let them disperse amongst the existing religions or become atheist, since they would then pose no great threat of attracting away loyalists. If there's a splinter group of sufficient size, the loyalists might get curious.
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What Would It Take To Prove......
by metatron ina hypothetical question.. at a minimum, what evidence would it take to prove that the society is trying to quietly shed publishers?.
now, i don't think we have evidence of this yet but that doesn't mean it could never happen.
we must consider where the trends of magazine/literature cuts, branch office sales, coerced contributions, bethel/do layoffs, and emphasis on jw.org lead us.. otoh, you might argue that there would never be a deliberate move to get rid of them, just moves that discreetly abandon them.
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OneEyedJoe
There's also a lot of added liability of having a bunch of folks who are only 50% in. The fence-sitters are the ones who end up filing lawsuits when their kids get molested, the faithful "wait on jehovah." The fence-sitters file lawsuits when the org steals their congregation (menlo park) but the faithful will just go along with it. The fence-sitters don't donate much and demoralize the faithful who do. The fence-sitters show the faithful that maybe they can be happy without throwing themselves fully into the cult.
There is definitely a case that could be made for shedding the fence-sitters and getting down to a fiercly loyal base. It might be that they'd actually have more money if they drop the fence-sitters and push the loyalists to donate more, once you consider that they'd likely be able to avoid a lot of lawsuits if they've only got the super-loyal in the ranks. Even if that's not the case, it's seems pretty certain that they'd have a better percentage margin than they do now without the fence-sitters.
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Questions From Readers (w67, 6/15, p383) :How old was Abel when he died?
by raymond frantz inthe watchtgower has decided to drop most of it's old publications up to 1990 and it looks like the library cd will be a thing of the past soon .i have decided to save some of the old content especially the questions from readers like wordpress posts and add photos ,let me know what you think.here is one from the 1967 watchtower.
how old was abel when he died ?.
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OneEyedJoe
So they've only got rudimentary clothing made of animal skins, but they've clearly got one hell of a sharp razor to be that clean shaven. Those two had some weird priorities. Looks like they also came across a supply of dapper dan pomade.
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What Would It Take To Prove......
by metatron ina hypothetical question.. at a minimum, what evidence would it take to prove that the society is trying to quietly shed publishers?.
now, i don't think we have evidence of this yet but that doesn't mean it could never happen.
we must consider where the trends of magazine/literature cuts, branch office sales, coerced contributions, bethel/do layoffs, and emphasis on jw.org lead us.. otoh, you might argue that there would never be a deliberate move to get rid of them, just moves that discreetly abandon them.
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OneEyedJoe
stuckin-
Who publishes the numbers? The stats don't come from some external auditing company, they come from inside...if they want to fudge the numbers who'd know? Witnesses are purposely kept leary of talking to other witnesses online (they could be apostates!) so they'd have to physically visit a number of different regions in order to confirm that a drop in numbers is more than just a local phenomenon. Even then, the org could print different numbers by region so that the increase is always happening in foreign lands.
Even if they're honest with it, they could spin it as a positive, just like they do with the shedding of 75% of the IBSA following from 1914 through the 1920s. They say that jesus was refining the congregation. It'd be the same thing today: "How joyful we must be to see that Jesus is seperating out those that are disloyal to him. Satan is really stepping up his attacks, knowing that the time left is reduced!"
There's certainly circumstantial evidence that they're intentionally trying to get rid of the critical thinkers. They changed the generation teaching in 2008, then again only 2 years later? Not to mention, the 2008 change was purely academic and made no real difference in when the end would be expected. You'd think the GB would be able to plan unneccesary doctrine changes more than 2 years out. Not to mention that they changed something that seemed somewhat reasonable (the 2008 version) to something thats absolutely rediculous (2 generations = 1 generation). What's the phrase that people often use when they know they're being lied to? "Don't tell me 2+2 doesn't equal 4." Well, now the GB is LITERALLY telling us that 1+1=1.
Then you have the new donation arrangement, and the changes that took place to the deeds while all the unneccessary renos where going on that basically gives the GB the power to disolve a congregation and take their KH. Once the congregations start sending in less money than they owe on the latest reno or new construction, they'll disolve the congregation and sell off the hall. It's easier to do this without people noticing if people are already leaving, and there's a valid reason to consolodate congregations.
As far as what it would take to conclusively prove that they're trying to reduce the number of adherents, you'd have to get multiple independant reports from high-ups at bethel, or some internal memo or GB agenda item or something that confirms it. All of which are unlikely, so only time will tell.
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What Happens if...
by bafh inwhat happens if someone returns to the congregation but stays inactive?
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what happens if someone returns to the congregation and does not meet with the elders to "confess" their sins while away?.
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OneEyedJoe
If you're like me, you'll never be comfortable in the org no matter how hard you try. You don't believe in most of it, but you'll have to smile and say the right things and pretend like you believe every word that the GB says (until they change it yet again, then you have to believe that). I know it's difficult to learn to socialize outside the org, but jumping back into a cult is never a healthy solution to social challenges. If you go in pretending that you believe, you'll just wind up with more invested into the cult when you finally can't take it anymore. Then, at best, you'll wind up back where you are now. At worst, you'll get yourself DFed, and you'll be worse of than you are now. The org can't tolerate members that don't tow the line. You will eventually get spat out.
I wish nothing but the best for you, I hope you're able to avoid any more wasted years spent in a publishing/realestate company cult. The best thing to do is to wait until you're absolutely sure of what you want before you make a choice.
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What Happens if...
by bafh inwhat happens if someone returns to the congregation but stays inactive?
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what happens if someone returns to the congregation and does not meet with the elders to "confess" their sins while away?.
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OneEyedJoe
3rd gen born-in here. I think I can relate to what you're going through somewhat, but most of the doctrine questioning for me stopped in my late teens when I started thinking to myself "If I hadn't been raised a JW, I'm sure I'd have ended up an atheist." At that point, I entered a long period where I felt like something was wrong, but couldn't come to terms with the possibility that they'd been distorting the truth, changing the bible to fit doctrine and essentially making it up as they go along for a bit over a century. jwfacts.com was what finally got me over that hurdle.
You might take a look at the article on paradise earth on jwfacts (http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/earth-forever.php) as it seems like it's applicable to where you currently are in your journey.
Also, another article that you might find eye opening is this one:http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/salvation-only-for-jehovahs-witnesses.php
From what you said, the only thing that seperates you from just about any mainstream christian religion is the belief in paradise earth. You might do some research on that doctrine and see if you might be better suited going to some other church that doesn't have so much doctrine that you disagree with (shunning, time prophecies, child baptism, jesus as mediator for 144,000 only, etc).
It's a journey to be sure, but I'd suggest that if you're already inactive and out, you might be better of being sure that you want to go back before you start the process. I'd LOVE to be where you are right now as far as that goes, and it would be a shame for you to pop up on their radar only to regret it later and get yourself DFd and fully shunned by family (if they're not already shunning you).
Edit:
You might also find this article on jwfacts interesting:
http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/wrong-with-being-jehovahs-witness.php
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What Happens if...
by bafh inwhat happens if someone returns to the congregation but stays inactive?
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what happens if someone returns to the congregation and does not meet with the elders to "confess" their sins while away?.
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OneEyedJoe
So what exactly is the doctrine you do believe in? That there'll be a paradise earth for people to live on? Do you think only JWs will make it through armageddon? That's another key doctrine. Since you don't agree on 1914, do you also disagree that JC chose the JWs in 1919? If so, doesn't that make them just like any other high-control christian group following the every whim of it's leader(s)? I.e. doesn't that make it a dangerous cult?
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WTS one step closer to "1984" - JW literature rewritten in online versions
by sir82 inlikely everyone here is familar with the novel "1984" - "he who controls the past, controls the future.
he who controls the present, controls the past".. take a look at wol.jw.org, insight book, topic "faithful and discreet slave".. current online wording: http://wol.jw.org/en/wol/d/r1/lp-e/1200001485.
jesus trained the apostles for the role they would have after pentecost 33 c.e.
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OneEyedJoe
Faithful JWs just think - "What a blessing from Jehovah! It's becoming easier than ever to keep up-to-date with all the New Light coming from the loving Governing Body"
When they announced that we should all use the online version of the "god's love" book for the first chapter of BS a while back, I remember adding that to the long list of things in my head that resembled what one might expect from a cult, but was done for a good reason.