Posts by _Morpheus

25

How big a deal is the royal commission..? It seems to be not much...

by _Morpheus in

my understanding (very limited and maybe flawed) is that this commission has no teeth.

if thats true why would the org care?

send a few lawyers, go through the motions but in the end.... its a dog parking on a porch.

_Morpheus

My understanding (very limited and maybe flawed) is that this commission has no teeth. If thats true why would the org care? Send a few lawyers, go through the motions but in the end.... Its a dog parking On a porch. Keep walking. Your in no danger.

i hope anyone who reads this understands my position. Im not a wt apologist by any stretch and i would love to see them nailed but im also a realist. This royal commission seems to be the equivalent to a congressional committee in the USA. There can be some ramifications from but very rarely and nothing overly severe. They tend to be political tools and more for show. They are often used to hurt people in the public eye to whom that matters.

Is my understanding correct? Does this thing have teeth or is it simply a lot of smoke but no fire?

44

Question for those still attending...is anyone talking?

by ToesUp in

jw
friends

we haven't been to a meeting or jw event in several years.

we have been following the rc closely.

it is fascinating!

_Morpheus

Here in washington DC i have heard ziltch. Nada. Nothing. I asked a brother who has friends in the big house, who is always fairly well up to date on org rumors and rumblings... He had heard nothing. I just dont think this is as big as some on this board would like it to be.

My understanding (very limited and maybe flawed) is that this commission has no teeth. If thats true why would the org care? Send a few lawyers, go through the motions but in the end.... Its a dog parking On a porch. Keep walking. Your in no danger. Im going to start a topic about this and see if i can get some insight....

30

We can now estimate the absolute minimum number of child abuse cases

by Viviane in

vincent tool said that he is exclusively working the phones for child abuse cases, but never said he is not the only one.

for now, let's assume the rate of abuse cases averages over time to the three or four cases he gets per month.

let's further assume that, since he isn't the only person working the phones and is on vacation at some point, the number is 4-5 per month, or 4.5 per month.

_Morpheus

First, let me say i agree 100% that access to any documentation from any branch would be a wind fall and welcome but very difficult to obtain.

As to the societal norms, im not so sure jw's differ as much as some think. Look at divorce rates: 50% in or out of the org. Look at rates of unwed mothers. Slightly lower than population as whole but the same as other deeply religious groups. Jws are a cross section and tend to reflect that.. Also by their very nature stats tend to balance across a given group being analyzed. Jws tend to reflect the population they are comprised of

(2 min isnt a record but its a nice run ;).... And besides thats all it really takes anyway)

30

We can now estimate the absolute minimum number of child abuse cases

by Viviane in

vincent tool said that he is exclusively working the phones for child abuse cases, but never said he is not the only one.

for now, let's assume the rate of abuse cases averages over time to the three or four cases he gets per month.

let's further assume that, since he isn't the only person working the phones and is on vacation at some point, the number is 4-5 per month, or 4.5 per month.

_Morpheus

Darling, im impressive without false accolades. I identified the flaw in your numbers, formulated the fix, did the research and posted the results in about 2 min. That seems pretty impressive ;)

as for the elders hearing these things and being affected.. I served 10 years and never heard a case of child molestation. There were never any REPORTED in my congregation, not to suggest they didnt occur.

The only reasonable way to extrapolate would to be do it by country stats. Number of cases per 1000 of child sexual abuse in a given country then reduced it out to the same ratio per 1000 of jw in the same country. That allows for normalization of given societal norms in the statistical compilations.

30

We can now estimate the absolute minimum number of child abuse cases

by Viviane in

vincent tool said that he is exclusively working the phones for child abuse cases, but never said he is not the only one.

for now, let's assume the rate of abuse cases averages over time to the three or four cases he gets per month.

let's further assume that, since he isn't the only person working the phones and is on vacation at some point, the number is 4-5 per month, or 4.5 per month.

_Morpheus

"In other word, you did lot of work and took me 2 minutes.... (you know I am just funning with ya!)

I was doing this after a lot of no sleep and got excited and ahead of myself."

lol i wouldnt call a google search "a lot of work" but i admit im slightly irritate that we both got statistically the same number

30

We can now estimate the absolute minimum number of child abuse cases

by Viviane in

vincent tool said that he is exclusively working the phones for child abuse cases, but never said he is not the only one.

for now, let's assume the rate of abuse cases averages over time to the three or four cases he gets per month.

let's further assume that, since he isn't the only person working the phones and is on vacation at some point, the number is 4-5 per month, or 4.5 per month.

_Morpheus

Jws, obviously i agree that vivs method was flawed and required far to many assumptions but in the end the umber was near identical.

as for taking the repeat rate of sexual predators into acount, the 19 per 1000 includes that by default. Its a flat rate of total reports no matter who the offender was.

I agree its plausible to extrapolate that world wide but im nowhere near as confident. There may well be different rates of offense based on social norms, reporting law may skew data sets etc...

12

Australian branch co-ordinator Terrence O'Brien gets called out for lying to the Royal Commission

by Mickey mouse in

watch from 1:47:00 as angus stewart of the royal commission investigation into child abuse calls out the australian branch co-ordinator for lying about geoffrey jackson's role on the governing body.

.

_Morpheus

Its such legalize bullshit. Every witness everwhere in the world KNOWS the GB is soley responsible for policies and that what they say goes without question.

Even by the GB's own standards this is a question, not of organizational policy alone but of policy based on theological constructs. The two witness rule and rules regarding the conducting of judicial cases are based on theology, that is witness understanding of the binle. That understanding comes directly from the GB by their own admission. Game. Set. Match.

30

We can now estimate the absolute minimum number of child abuse cases

by Viviane in

vincent tool said that he is exclusively working the phones for child abuse cases, but never said he is not the only one.

for now, let's assume the rate of abuse cases averages over time to the three or four cases he gets per month.

let's further assume that, since he isn't the only person working the phones and is on vacation at some point, the number is 4-5 per month, or 4.5 per month.

_Morpheus

Bravehearts reports about 19 per 1000 reports of abuse in the general population

There are about 66,000 publishers in Australia. That works out to about 3,473 potential abuse cases.

Interestingly close to viv's number of 3240. But my methodology was much better and is therefore valid.

81

Did you hear that!? His Honour is insisting that Jackson attend the Royal Commission

by umbertoecho in

i actually started clapping at that point, as his honour explained to the wt type creep sycophantic slithery lawyer that........" i understand that we all have issues to face in life and .....that is a part of life...........however it has become obvious that this man ....is in such a position to assist with this investigation.....".

it boils down to the fact that stewart outright accused the latest witness of misleading the royal commission and this lead to some document searches which led his honour to conclude that they had been protecting mr jackson.

this was a warm and fluffy moment folks.................brilliant stuff!!!!!

_Morpheus

The head of a multinational coporation dosent deserve special pity over an admittedly sad family situation. People with that level of responsibility understand they have large obligations. In witness speak, "those to whom much is given, much is demanded". If he were the head of microsoft or coke a cola or or anyother such coporation he wouldnt get sympathy based on the level of responsibility either.

30

We can now estimate the absolute minimum number of child abuse cases

by Viviane in

vincent tool said that he is exclusively working the phones for child abuse cases, but never said he is not the only one.

for now, let's assume the rate of abuse cases averages over time to the three or four cases he gets per month.

let's further assume that, since he isn't the only person working the phones and is on vacation at some point, the number is 4-5 per month, or 4.5 per month.

_Morpheus

Im not sure that assumption is valid. You included far too many variables that are unproven (number of calls, people taking calls) as indicated by your frequent use of the word "assume".

A more reasonable extrapolation would be to compare the number reported per 1000 in the Aussie population as a whole and extrapolate that per 1000 of jw in Australia. Those numbers should be fairly easy to find. I will hit google and see how it compares out