Ok so a 50% reduction in membership over 10 years is your basic benchmark for a collapse. Fair enough. I would strongly argue against that being a disintegration, but a collapse is fair.
That said, did you note that the benchmark in your own definition moved, in just a few hours, from two years to ten? I still disagree that it will happen in either time frame but it highlights my basic core flaw with these predictions, no matter who may be making them: its all very mutable given which way the wind seems to be blowing in the eyes of the predictor. In some posts its months (yes slim you said months ... well... months ago) some posts its years some posts its decades.
Just admit it to yourself, if no else, slim... these predictions (earlier today 2 years now 10) arnt really based on what you percieve as facts. They are your hopes and dreams. Deep down you know the real truth about the truth... the org isnt going away in your or my lifetimes.