Years back I was told the same thing when this lady committed suicide after she was disfellowshipped. The elder tried to convinced me that the lady would have committed suicide anyway because she committed porneia..
Well, she obviously wasn't very sorry for what she had done, right? Not that suicide would always be due to sorrow over what one had done, but it certainly rings true in some cases. I can definitely see people being so destroyed over what they had done, and maybe that they weren't really heard by the committee, that they take such a tragic step. Jw's are such callous people. That elder should never have tried to convince anyone as to her motives. It just shows the attitude that they think they know everything, things spoken and unspoken, in their infinite judgement. I wonder if maybe he felt guilty and was really trying to convince himself.
Anyway, back to the OP, I really love the comparison. These men have limited opportunity, and limited ability, to carry out what they're tasked with. And as far as Holy Spirit being behind it all, that's just dumb. I once asked why I was appointed a ministerial servant and was told basically that it was my hours and other participation. THAT is how they can see holy spirit active in a life. All they can do is make outward judgements based on whatever is presented externally. Many men have zero emotional intelligence, and those are who are making these judgement calls?! Men are often more interested in facts than feelings, and unfortunately repentance gets to feelings. It has taken me years as a man of study and reading to figure out how emotions work myself. When talking to other men they often get weirded out and can't go there. I'd hate to be in front of many of them trying to determine if I was genuinely sorry about anything in life.