it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
slimboyfat:
On the other hand, the strictness of the membership measure makes no difference to the growth rate. The consistency of the measure rather than its strictness is what matters when performing a diachronic analysis of membership of any group, JWs included.
Ah... you're just bad at math.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
slimboyfat:
Jeffro why can't you understand that whatever measure JWs use for membership, as long as they are consistent in the measure that they use over the years, it doesn't make a difference to the growth rate.
Apparently you don't understand that what you are saying is not consistent with comparison of JW growth with that of other groups.
Earlier you said:
However you measure active Witnesses, I reckon the way they count members is stricter than most other religions.
Please go away until you've decided what you're actually comparing.
Blue text indicates actions that increase reported membership.
Red text indicates actions that decrease reported membership.
Shown above, even when the net result is only a gain of 1 member, the JW-reported growth rate is higher than the XYZ growth rate. For exactly the same number of actual people.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
steve2:
Actually, you could be questioned on this as well Jeffro: In countries in which there are census-based questions about religious affiliation, the census gathered numbers of JWs are almost always well-above the Watchtower-gathered numbers of JWs - sometimes by close to a third higher.
Duh. I directly stated that their method is aimed toward inflating growth rate rather than membership:
Fact is, not counting (non-'publisher') children or 'inactive' people as 'members' gives JWs a 'buffer' for citing 'growth' without an actual increase in membership.
Having small membership goes toward their persecution complex, whereas purported growth is intended to support their claims that 'god is blessing their work'.
If the Watch Tower Society went for maximising membership in JW statistics, their growth (as already clearly stated) would be minimal, and negative in many places.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
slimboyfat:
Members reactivating happens every year.
slimboyfat, does have a valid point here. But not really the one he wants to make.
Long-term 'inactive' JWs who remain 'inactive' don't affect JW statistics.
JWs who are 'inactive' or 'irregular' for part of a 'service year' also don't impact negatively on annual growth. (In fact a JW who fails to report in one month and submits a late report with their report for the next month is counted twice for the number of 'peak publishers'.)
A JW who is 'inactive' at the start of the 'service year' but then does any preaching in that year impacts positively on growth.
But a JW must be previously 'active', and then become 'inactive' for an entire service year to impact negatively on growth.
Fact is, not counting (non-'publisher') children or 'inactive' people as 'members' gives JWs a 'buffer' for citing 'growth' without an actual increase in membership.
You can bet that if the way they count their statistics wasn't giving the most favourable impression of growth, they'd change the rules.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
Members reactivating happens every year. You can't assume it is a one off phenomenon
The example indicated hypothetical changes within a single year. Though something that happens yearly is indeed a "one off phenomenom" for that year, I did not suggest that similar changes don't happen each year.
Again, feel free to provide different figures for comparison with XYZ.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
At best, all you will establish is that comparison of JW 'growth' rates is not directly comparable with growth of other groups.
Argh... I can't go back and edit that badly worded sentence. Stupid editing time limit.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
slimboyfat:
Members reactivating happens every year. You can't assume it is a one off phenomenon and calculate ridiculous growth like 26%. Not to mention ones that die or become inactive in the same period.
The example was simplified, but the comparison to other groups counting all as members is completely legitimate.
But okay... I'll change the example for you...
For example, let's say a JW congregation has 50 'active' members, 20 non-publishers (usually children) and 10 inactive. During the year, 5 of the children become publishers, and they also make 3 converts. 2 publishers die, 3 babies are born, and 5 of the inactive publishers reactivate. 2 publishers becomes inactive, 1 is disfellowshipped, and another disassociates. At the end of the year, there are 82 associated with the congregation, but the initial number of publishers is 50 and the final number is 57. Growth rate is 14%.
In a congregation of XYZ church, there are 50 regular adult members, 20 children and 10 lapsed members. During the year, they make 3 converts. 2 members die, 3 babies are born, 5 of the lapsed members return, 2 of the members lapse, 1 is excommunicated*, and another formally resigns from the church. At the end of the year, there are 83 associated with the congregation. The initial count is 80, and the final count is 83. Growth rate is 3.75%.
*Excommunicated members do not receive communion but are not shunned and are still members. If the excommunicated member is not considered an adherent, growth is 2.5%.
Feel free to stipulate other values for the variables of the fictional JW and XYZ congregations. At best, all you will establish is that comparison of JW 'growth' rates is not directly comparable with growth of other groups.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
slimboyfat:
Nonsense as long as they compare like with like how strict the measure is has no effect on the growth rate.
Wrong. Most JW growth comes from children of JWs (also a source of inflated Bible Study stats). If they were counted as members, actual growth by conversion would be extremely reduced.
For example, let's say a JW congregation has 50 'active' members, 20 non-publishers (usually children) and 10 inactive. During the year, 5 of the children become publishers, and they also make 3 converts. There are 83 people in total, but the initial number of publishers is 50 and the final number is 58. Growth rate is 16%. And if 5 of the inactive people get roped into a 'special campaign' (e.g. Kingdom News), the growth rate goes up to 26%.
In a congregation of XYZ church, there are 50 regular adult members, 20 children and 10 lapsed members. During the year, they make 3 converts. There are 83 people in total. The initial members count is 80, and the final count is 83. Growth rate is 3.75%.
But both groups have the same number and distribution of adherents.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
slimboyfat:
However you measure active Witnesses, I reckon the way they count members is stricter than most other religions.
Their more 'conservative' method of counting membership artificially inflates their growth rate.
If JW 'membership' were counted in a similar manner to other churches, JW growth would be pitiful. It would likely be negative in most countries, and it's already below the population growth in many countries as it is.
it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
slimboyfat:
How would you define an active a Witness if not by participation in preaching?
That might seem like a fair question, but it's based on ambiguous semantics.
JW 'activity' is based on largely ineffectual self-reported 'preaching', much of which is spent trudging door to door or driving in car groups, or and in some cases entirely made up (and there is significant pressure to do so), rather than actually 'preaching' per se.
'Activity' of a religious person could be based on attendance at religious services. Or it could be based on charitable acts. There is no scriptural basis for defining 'activity' as 'door-to-door preaching'.
