Posts by Jeffro

89

"Snakes will eat dirt in the new order."

by Comatose in

12 years ago

i was talking with a jw i've known a long time and the topic of da new order came up.

she mentioned how nice it will be when all animals are at peace.

i asked why they had camouflage and defensive and offensive weapons if they were to always get along?

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

mP:

I think the Moses or the authors who created him did believe in magical snakes. lets not forget the copper snake Nehushatan.

Of course. The writer (around the sixth century BCE) borrowed themes from other myths.

Idolatry (magical snakes).

Divination (Umim & Thummim).

Human sacrifice (Jephthah's daughter).

The so-called 'pure' worship of the Israelites was formulated from 'pagan' beliefs they picked up along the way and adopted into their own culture.

As was the 'law code' that they also borrowed and adapted from the Babylonians.

The story is not about fairness, its about authority.

Exactly. The main point is to scare the common people (the 'worshippers') into respecting the authority of their 'God', and more importantly, their priests.

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83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

You have shown no such thing. You are not comparing like for like across the tables. An increase of 1 strict member would be equivalent to an increase of 1.06 (or thereabouts) of a weak member precisely because they measure different things. You only produce a statistical anomaly by forgetting the difference between the two during the calculation.

Your conclusion that 'a JW who reports field service at least once a year' is necessarily a 'strict member' is rubbish.

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83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

slimboyfat:

Your table only makes apparent sense because adding 1 member to each church looks superficially equivalent. But what you are doing is adding 1 strict member on one side and one non-strict member on the other side and acting as if they are the same thing.

Sigh. I'll give you one hint. 'XYZ Church' isn't a real church. It is an analogue for how JWs might alternatively count their own members. If JWs were to count their own members in such a way, their own reported growth rates would be lower. This demonstrates that the way they do count them inflates their growth rates, and that fact demonstrates why they calculate membership differently. I really hope this doesn't need explaining any further.

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83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

I've already explained the motivation for inflating growth rates at the expense of membership figures. If you don't get it, that's your problem.

Link

83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

slimboyfat:

You don't even seem to understand that is what you would need to demonstrate.

You don't understand my point, therefore you imagine that's my problem.

Your examples may be complicated, but they are needlessly so.

That's a complete non sequitur. I didn't claim the examples I gave were 'complicated'.

I said I gave simple examples, and that you should be able to extrapolate more complicated scenarios on your own. Apparently I was wrong.

Link

83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

slimboyfat:

But you did not present a consistent growth rate, you simply added 1 member to each congregation. And then made the rather obvious observation that 1 added to a smaller number represents a larger percentage increase than 1 added to a larger number. Why you were adding 1 to each group or what you think it shows was not explained. I think you are very confused about what you are doing.

In other examples given previously, I didn't just add one. I was demonstrating a different aspect of the larger point each time. If you can't extrapolate more complicated scenarios from the simpler examples I've given, or grasp the fact that the JW reckoning is skewed in favour of inflated growth rates, I couldn't be bothered explaining it to you any further.

Link

83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

Laika:

If XYZ church and JW church each have 3 births only XYZ would count them as members which would inflate their growth above JWs. And memorial attendance is growing at about the same percentage rate so if they counted growth in another way it seems to me it would still work out about the same.

True. And when a JW child becomes a publisher, they get an increase that XYZ doesn't get.

But it's not a one-to-one comparison, because the result is still skewed. JW growth rates are based on publishers, so the addition of a single member represents a greater growth rate.

In the chart below, one JW child becomes a 'publisher', analogous to a child becoming an adult for XYZ (which has no bearing on XYZ's growth rate). And one child is born in each, which only affects the growth rate for XYZ.

But by the JW reckoning, their growth rate is higher.

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83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

slimboyfat:

No using a single congregation and adding 1 member obscures the analysis for a number of reasons. Not least the fact that you can't add 0.94 of a member, or whatever precise figure would make the two actually comparable rather than apparently comparable using small ordinal numbers. Add a single member to each religious group numbering millions and your difference in percentages all but disappears, to the seventh decimal point or something.

That might be a valid claim if only one congregation had an increase in members. A growth rate doesn't represent individual fractions of a person. And we're not talking about ordinal numbers.

Plus you are not taking into consideration the fact that the additional member added to the strict church is not the same as the nominal member added to a more liberal church. You are taking a strict measure on one column and comparing it with a weaker measure on the other column and imagining that the difference accumulates over time within each group rather than being a stable discrepancy between the groups.

Yeah, because all JWs who report field service once every couple of months are doing it because they love it.

Link

83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

steve2:

I have a double major in Sociology and Psychology in addition to post-graduate papers in statistics so if your argument eludes me, it probably eludes a lot of other reasonably educated others who are reading your posts.

If that's the case, surely you should be able to understand that the number of converts already associated with a JW congregation (i.e. born in) are not accounted for in the same way as in membership statistics of other groups. As a result, the starting figure (i.e. only 'publishers') for determining reported growth is lower, so the result is higher when dividing by that amount. I don't think I can simplify it any further - see chart already provided above. It is not merely a matter of 'more restrictive reporting' because the same pool of people (i.e. children already associated with JWs) are actually the source of most of the members, which are inherently counted by other groups.

Link

83

There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world

by cedars in

jw
friends

12 years ago

it would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.

based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".

portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .

12 years ago

Jeffro 12 years ago

slimboyfat:

If you are simply making the rather obvious point that the smaller the initial figure then the greater is the percentage increase produced by any ordinal addition then fair enough. The converse would of course be true for any decrease, which would be "overstated" if you want to press the point. But in fact we are not talking about single congregations, and the addition of single members to that congregation, but worldwide memberships involving movements of hundreds of thousands annually. Percentage movements are what matter at that level, and consistency rather than strictness in counting is what matters when making comparisons over time.

Apparently you still don't understand how the difference compounds over time, or that the significance compounds with the number of congregations. Additionally, I have also previously indicated in this thread that is more likely for an inactive member to become counted as an active member than it is for an active member to become counted as inactive, because inactivity is necessary for an entire year before it is reflected in peak publishers, but any activity by a previously inactive member immediately includes them in peak publishers (sometimes twice).

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