Where did storm troopers find a horse?? Or baseball bats for that matter?
Posts by Jeffro
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28607 BC vs 587 BC: Archaeoastronomy for Everyone
by Londo111 inhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amobor6pdbo.
even though this is an appendix to the main series, i thought id share this.
likely, it is not the most riveting video, but im hoping it can empower those interested in starting research into astronomical diaries like vat 4956. some might think its too complicated, but i believe such research is within everyones reach.
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28
607 BC vs 587 BC: Archaeoastronomy for Everyone
by Londo111 inhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amobor6pdbo.
even though this is an appendix to the main series, i thought id share this.
likely, it is not the most riveting video, but im hoping it can empower those interested in starting research into astronomical diaries like vat 4956. some might think its too complicated, but i believe such research is within everyones reach.
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Jeffro
Obviously they expect most JWs to accept whatever they say, and not to actually verify anything. Their article claims:
While normally the year of this eclipse would have begun on April 3/4, VAT 4956 states on line 6 that an extra month (intercalary) was added after the twelfth (last) month (Addaru) of the preceding year.
There was indeed an Adar II the previous year, but it doesn't push the start of the new year into May. Nisan never starts in May. It's only about a third of the time that Nisan starts in early April, otherwise it begins in March.
The last day of Adar I in 588 BCE was March 6. The last day of Adar II was April 4.
The entire purpose of intercalary months is to get the calendar back in sync, because it would otherwise be a month behind the solar year.
The fact is that "the year of this eclipse" began on April 4, because "an extra month (intercalary) was added after the twelfth (last) month (Addaru) of the preceding year."
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153
Shocking talk from 2013 District Convention urges parents to shun disfellowshipped children
by cedars inhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yldwe_6jsu.
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cedars.
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Jeffro
JWs (and other religious types) often like to play the "what would Jesus do?" card.
The Watchtower, 1 January 2005, page 12:
Rather, when making a decision or handling a problem, we ask: ‘What would Jesus do in this situation? What would he want me to do?’
So... would Jesus shun anyone? If we're to believe the Bible, he associated with or had conversations with:
- general 'sinners'
- tax collectors
- harlots
- Samaritans
- 'gentiles' (though he was a bit of a prick when talking to the Phoenician woman)
- 'apostate' religious leaders
- demons
- Satan
Is there any suggestion in the Bible that Jesus would shun anyone?
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There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world
by cedars init would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
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Jeffro
The following graph uses a power trendline instead of exponentially based on natural logarithm. The curves are a slightly better fit for anomalies in the data such as those caused by the 1975 fiasco. However, it suggests poorer future growth based on growth in recent years, with 10 million 'active' JWs by about 2027.
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There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world
by cedars init would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
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Jeffro
steve2:
In answer to your question, yes - but you also need to provide numerical context by showing the absolute numbers next to the percentages.
The graphs would be quite cluttered if the publisher numbers were also provided. Much of the audience of the forum has a general idea of numbers anyway.
otherwise readers have no way of knowing whether the 50% increase say in 1956 (to conjure up an imaginary example) represents a relatively small increase (given the small total number for the previous year) or a significantly large numerical increase compared with the previous year.
That's the case when there is only a very small sample size, but when percentages vary over a long period of time, there is a clear trend indicating a distinct decline in growth regardless of the specific numbers.
Statistics for this kind of population are generally expected to have exponential growth, however JW growth rates are considerably below what they should be if growth had continued at a consistent exponential rate. For example, if JW growth from 1950 to 1965 had continued at the same exponential rate, by now there would be about 60 million JWs. But based on their growth rate from 1998 to the present, it may take them as long as 2025 to get to 10 million. (I have selected 1998 here because there is a notable change in the trend from that year onwards compared to the previous period.)
The graph below compares actual (reported) growth with hypothetical growth based on trends from various periods, as indicated in the legend:
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83
There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world
by cedars init would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
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Jeffro
EdenOne:
The only viable way to determine accurately how many active members there are is:
Some of that data you suggest would be cumbersome to locate, and much (e.g. distinction between baptized and unbaptized 'publishers' per month) isn't made available at all.
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83
There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world
by cedars init would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
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Jeffro
steve2:
As any 101 statistics student would tell you Jeffro percentages are very misleading indicators of comparative growth over time. For example in a group of 2 it takes just another 2 to achieve 100% growth. But in a group of 2,000 it requires 2,000 more to achieve that. This is one of the reasons why additional measures are used such as ratios of witnesses to a country's population.
Sigh. We're not talking about very small numbers. And you already know, or should reasonably know, that ratios to population are also increasing in most developed countries.
That said, year-by-year percentages can be sound indicators of growth
You mean, like the ones I provided?
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153
Shocking talk from 2013 District Convention urges parents to shun disfellowshipped children
by cedars inhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yldwe_6jsu.
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cedars.
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Jeffro
He claims the shunning is the result of the decision by the disfellowshipped person. And then just after that, he says to respect the decision of the judicial committee. Morons.
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83
There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world
by cedars init would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
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83
There are more Jehovah's Witnesses in Portugal than there are Scientologists in the whole world
by cedars init would be nice if this little nougat of information could be more widely known - especially by journalists.. the quoted figures for scientology are taken from tony ortega's 2011 article in the village voice, which quotes former scientology pr executive jeff hawkins as saying.... "i know that event attendance internationally was somewhere in the region of 25,000 to 35,000. the international 'bodies in the shop' (people actually in the orgs that week for service) was 16,000 to 18,000. ias was struggling to get 40,000 members.
based on this and a lot of other information i was privy to, i estimate the actual number of scientologists at a maximum of 40,000. that's on the high side.".
portugal is one of 33 countries with more than 40,000 active jehovah's witnesses - demonstrating the gulf in size between the two faiths.. the following list shows all countries with more than 40,000 jws according to their reported peak publishers for 2013.. .
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