Anony Mous:
The John Hopkins covid risk calculator says I have a 0.8 in a million chance of dying from the virus. The vaccine adverse effects database currently says 10,000 have died from the vaccine. If 2/3 of the country has the shots, and there are 330 million people in the country, then that works out to 45 deaths per million. So I would be an idiot to get the shot.
As far as statistical comparisons goes, this is gibberish. First, an assessment of individual risk factors can’t validly be compared with a simple proportion across the entire vaccinated population. Second, VAERS indicates deaths that occurred after vaccination, not ‘caused by the vaccine’ (post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy). Third, about 162 million people in the US have been fully vaccinated giving a mortality rate of about 0.0062% (if we grant the false claim that 10,000 deaths after the vaccine are all caused by the vaccine), so it’s not clear where you’re getting ‘2/3 of 330 million’ or ‘45 deaths per million’ from, and the proportion doesn’t change as the number of people vaccinated increases (absent other demographic changes). Fourth, the majority of the 0.0062% are those in high-risk groups, which you have indicated that you are not in. Fifth, the people in the high-risk groups for the vaccine (excluding allergies to the medium) are at even higher risk of dying from the virus. Sixth, only the most at-risk people getting vaccinated would not establish ‘herd immunity’.