Posts by Jeffro

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

It doesn’t alter the fact that JWs are growing while most other groups are declining. That’s all I claimed and that’s what you originally objected to.

No. It's not. I originally objected to your incorrect assessment about the way JWs count membership.

To the extent that it is true that mainstream denominations are in decline, this is fairly mundane and some of the reasons have already been provided.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that Christadelphians and Brethren also disfellowship and yet they are declining. So disfellowshipping alone doesn’t seem to be a magic bullet for growth.

Christadelphian 'disfellowshipping' does not require social shunning. I don't know much about the Brethren, but according to what I've checked, shunning those who simply leave (as opposed to committing other specific ‘serious sins’) has not been mandatory since 2002, at least among the Exclusive Brethren.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

Have you got any explanation why the New Zealand census confirms that JWs are growing compared with other Christian groups?

There is no reason I would need to 'explain' it.

The most recent census in New Zealand was in 2018, and the one prior was in 2013. The census for this year has not yet begun.

According to the New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018 Jehovah's Witnesses went from being 0.46% of the population to 0.43%. So they too are not keeping up with population growth.

I have also already shown that JW growth in Australia was significantly below population growth.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

It’s this point you contradicted me on on page 3
The JW numbers look “bad” … until you compare them with most other Christian groups which are in severe decline in the west. Compared with other Christian groups the growth of JWs bucks the trend of decline.
To which you replied
No. Not a valid representation of my position at all. I have explained the reasons previously and you either don’t understand, or you ignore the reasons why JW rates of growth seem higher than for other denominations because it goes against your narrative.

Egregiously dishonest. Your statement that I described as "not a valid representation of my position" was explicitly your assertion that:

Your only argument boils down to the claim that the definition of “publisher” this year may be a bit more liberal than the definition of “publisher” last year

https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/5183083536449536/statistics-out-yet?page=4#5232185313853440

And at no point in this discussion did I even bring up the changed publisher requirements.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

If the growth rate was consistently overstated for many years you would end up with JWs claiming a lot more members than other measures produce.

It's that kind of statement that makes me think you either do not understand, or are otherwise deliberately misrepresenting, the way they self-report their membership. Because they only count 'publishers', it is not at all the case that the higher growth rate of that measure would "end up with JWs claiming a lot more members than other measures produce".

(It was also just after that that slimboyfat jumped from talking about JW-reported statistics to secular reporting of JW statistics.)

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

1.2 million people left Netflix in the first half of 2022 but only 19 people defected from North Korea in the same period. So by slimboyfat reasoning, North Korea must be more popular than Netflix. Or perhaps there are other reasons for the distinction.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

My point is that JWs are growing while most other groups are declining. You’ve given me the opportunity to prove that from census data itself, which demonstrates it even better than I impinged.

2.3% ‘growth’ in a period that the population went up 6.4% isn’t even keeping up with population growth. There are clear reasons already stated that people continue to remain JWs whereas others are more free to leave other denominations. Despite that significant pressure their actual ‘growth’ is paltry (and managed largely by popping out babies at a rate that can’t keep up with people leaving). Additionally, much larger denominations generally have a higher proportion of uninvested members whereas smaller denominations tend to mainly comprise a proportionally larger core of hardline members. Your simplistic comparisons with other denominations ignore the reasons behind the differences as well as the actual decline compared to population growth.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

Jeffro you are the one who said other churches count attendees as members. This is not the case.

This is a misrepresentation of what I actually said. I didn’t say that other denominations only or specifically count attendees as members. I indicated that they don’t only count a subset of attendees in the manner that JWs do. I also showed that counting either all adherents or all attendees both give lower growth rates than the way JWs count ‘publishers’.

You now seem to be arguing that other churches have more adherents than members.

No, I didn’t say anything like that at all. I did suggest there are people who self-identify as a particular denomination but don’t attend services, but that isn’t in any way a remarkable assertion.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

(Lots of duplicate posting)
Jeffro, according to the census numbers, do you think JWs are doing better or worse than other Christian groups?

Well, that was somewhat tedious. I haven’t argued that JWs haven’t had any growth nor that other denominations haven’t had poor growth. You are pushing your own separate narrative here (and you’ve done so in previous years), though JW growth isn’t what I would call ‘good’ particularly given the significant pressure that exists in the denomination to remain affiliated. In many secular countries, people have been leaving other denominations where there is much less pressure to remain members, which isn’t particularly surprising. But they aren’t running off to become JWs, and most JW growth is coming from inside their own ranks (i. e., having children), though Australia’s population grew 6.4% during this 2.3% ‘increase’ in JW numbers.

What I have consistently stated, and demonstrated, is that the JW membership as reported by themselves is skewed in favour of growth rate. If other denominations counted some subset within their ranks as the ‘members’ (though JW literature now avoids that term for legal reasons 😂 ) they too would yield higher growth rates.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

I don’t know any religious group that defines membership as attendance.

I don’t know why you imagine this supports your position. 🤦‍♂️ The fact that many denominations actually count adherents rather than only regular attendees only further demonstrates why their reported growth rates are lower than those reported by JWs.

If xyz church has 100 adherents comprising 20 lapsed members and 80 regular attendees of whom 10 are young children, attendance would be reported as 80%. If 10 new people then join, their reported growth rate would be 12.5% if they count only attendees as members, but only 10% if they count all adherents as members.

If a JW congregation has 100 adherents comprising 20 'faders' and 80 regular attendees of whom 70 are regular publishers, attendance would be reported as 114%. If 10 new people then join, their reported growth rate would be 14.3%.

It is obvious that the JW method of counting ‘publishers’ inflates their reported growth rate.

I haven’t verified your assertion about census reported membership in New Zealand though this is an anomaly, not a trend. For example, in Australia from 2011 to 2016, JWs ‘rose’ from 0.4% to… 0.4% of the population, and then fell to 0.3% in 2021 according to official census data. But according to JW data they went from 0.266% of the population to 0.295% to 0.272% for the same years. The percentages for 2011 to 2021 well demonstrate that the JW-reported figures (increased) cannot reliably be directly compared to self-reported affiliation data (decreased).

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

As I recall your argument (feel free to provide a link) it leans heavily on the fact that the publisher number includes unbaptised publishers as well as baptised JWs.

No.

Your comparisons of growth rates between JWs and other denominations are invalid because most denominations count all attendees as members, which results in higher membership stats but lower growth rates. This is also the reason that secular surveys of JWs report higher membership numbers. And despite some cherry-picked relatively high secular growth rates for JWs for selected countries (though apparently, just New Zealand), that is not the norm.

I have previously provided examples of routine scenarios where the JW method of counting members demonstrably inflates their reported growth rate compared to analogous scenarios for denominations counting typical membership.