Posts by Jeffro

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

All I have claimed on this thread is that JWs are still growing while most churches are declining. The data bear this out. I didn’t say that was good, bad or I different. It’s just a fact.

To the extent that it is true, it is mundane and unimpressive when the reasons are considered. (Though in the two examples considered, they are not even keeping up with population growth.)

About 476,000 people left South Korea in 2021 but only 19 people left North Korea in the first half of 2022. So impressive that North Korea is doing better than South Korea. 😂

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

JW Yearbooks were discontinued in 2017. But the ‘service report’ will likely not be too far off. It is somewhat interesting that in 2021 they boasted about memorial ‘attendance’ (even though people didn’t even have to leave home to ‘attend’) at the annual meeting around October of the same year as well as at the end of that year, and again in the January 2023 Watchtower. Yet apparently not so much to boast about for the 2022 stats. But as I said in my earlier post, the predicted inflated growth since the Covid-related declines will be milked for all it can.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

I predict a stated increase between 2% and 3% in the JW-reported figures for the 2022 report, which will be touted as ‘impressive’, but will actually constitute poor net growth since 2019. See also the footnote under 2nd paragraph of the Letter section here.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

It doesn’t alter the fact that JWs are growing while most other groups are declining. That’s all I claimed and that’s what you originally objected to.

No. It's not. I originally objected to your incorrect assessment about the way JWs count membership.

To the extent that it is true that mainstream denominations are in decline, this is fairly mundane and some of the reasons have already been provided.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that Christadelphians and Brethren also disfellowship and yet they are declining. So disfellowshipping alone doesn’t seem to be a magic bullet for growth.

Christadelphian 'disfellowshipping' does not require social shunning. I don't know much about the Brethren, but according to what I've checked, shunning those who simply leave (as opposed to committing other specific ‘serious sins’) has not been mandatory since 2002, at least among the Exclusive Brethren.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

Have you got any explanation why the New Zealand census confirms that JWs are growing compared with other Christian groups?

There is no reason I would need to 'explain' it.

The most recent census in New Zealand was in 2018, and the one prior was in 2013. The census for this year has not yet begun.

According to the New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018 Jehovah's Witnesses went from being 0.46% of the population to 0.43%. So they too are not keeping up with population growth.

I have also already shown that JW growth in Australia was significantly below population growth.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

It’s this point you contradicted me on on page 3
The JW numbers look “bad” … until you compare them with most other Christian groups which are in severe decline in the west. Compared with other Christian groups the growth of JWs bucks the trend of decline.
To which you replied
No. Not a valid representation of my position at all. I have explained the reasons previously and you either don’t understand, or you ignore the reasons why JW rates of growth seem higher than for other denominations because it goes against your narrative.

Egregiously dishonest. Your statement that I described as "not a valid representation of my position" was explicitly your assertion that:

Your only argument boils down to the claim that the definition of “publisher” this year may be a bit more liberal than the definition of “publisher” last year

https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/5183083536449536/statistics-out-yet?page=4#5232185313853440

And at no point in this discussion did I even bring up the changed publisher requirements.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

If the growth rate was consistently overstated for many years you would end up with JWs claiming a lot more members than other measures produce.

It's that kind of statement that makes me think you either do not understand, or are otherwise deliberately misrepresenting, the way they self-report their membership. Because they only count 'publishers', it is not at all the case that the higher growth rate of that measure would "end up with JWs claiming a lot more members than other measures produce".

(It was also just after that that slimboyfat jumped from talking about JW-reported statistics to secular reporting of JW statistics.)

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

1.2 million people left Netflix in the first half of 2022 but only 19 people defected from North Korea in the same period. So by slimboyfat reasoning, North Korea must be more popular than Netflix. Or perhaps there are other reasons for the distinction.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

My point is that JWs are growing while most other groups are declining. You’ve given me the opportunity to prove that from census data itself, which demonstrates it even better than I impinged.

2.3% ‘growth’ in a period that the population went up 6.4% isn’t even keeping up with population growth. There are clear reasons already stated that people continue to remain JWs whereas others are more free to leave other denominations. Despite that significant pressure their actual ‘growth’ is paltry (and managed largely by popping out babies at a rate that can’t keep up with people leaving). Additionally, much larger denominations generally have a higher proportion of uninvested members whereas smaller denominations tend to mainly comprise a proportionally larger core of hardline members. Your simplistic comparisons with other denominations ignore the reasons behind the differences as well as the actual decline compared to population growth.

169

Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat in

isn’t it about time they released the report for the service year?

or have they stopped publishing it?

did they released selected figures at the annual meeting as they usually do, such as the memorial attendance or record number of pioneers?

Jeffro

slimboyfat:

Jeffro you are the one who said other churches count attendees as members. This is not the case.

This is a misrepresentation of what I actually said. I didn’t say that other denominations only or specifically count attendees as members. I indicated that they don’t only count a subset of attendees in the manner that JWs do. I also showed that counting either all adherents or all attendees both give lower growth rates than the way JWs count ‘publishers’.

You now seem to be arguing that other churches have more adherents than members.

No, I didn’t say anything like that at all. I did suggest there are people who self-identify as a particular denomination but don’t attend services, but that isn’t in any way a remarkable assertion.