Posts by JanH

7

To: JanH (edited to add data)

by Amazing in

jw
friends

in my response to janh below, where i show i have added material, you will find that the numbers are very interesting.

hi janh: i broke this into a new thread because i want to make sure you see my response to your comment on my other post about the numbers of victims of pedophiles.

also, while you make some good points, i think that some misconceptions needs to be highlighted.. you said, "sorry, these numbers seems totally absurd.

JanH

Amazing,

Thanks again for your comment.

As for sources, I will have to pull up the web site that cited one average of 117 that I recall.

Yes, I have seen this statistic. It seems to me this is the number of average victims claimed for an (alleged) abuser by the US prosecutor. It may be the number of alleged victims of a convicted abuser, or the actual number a convicted abuser has been convicted for abusing. All these are very different things. Without knowing which, it is pretty useless.

At any rate, even the number of victims of known offenders does not tell us anything about how many victims the average abuser has. Alas, very few abusers are caught and brought to justice. And, naturally, there is a clear relationship between the number of victims and the chance of both being caught and found guilty. So, the statistic is seriously skewed by nature, and cannot be used to argue how many victims the average abuser has.

This is the kind of pitfalls in statistics that social scientists work with all the time, and quite a few of them very badly, I have to say.

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

7

To: JanH (edited to add data)

by Amazing in

jw
friends

in my response to janh below, where i show i have added material, you will find that the numbers are very interesting.

hi janh: i broke this into a new thread because i want to make sure you see my response to your comment on my other post about the numbers of victims of pedophiles.

also, while you make some good points, i think that some misconceptions needs to be highlighted.. you said, "sorry, these numbers seems totally absurd.

JanH

Amazing,

Read it again. According to this source, only "some" had as many as 70 victims, as opposed to the majority being "not strangers" to victim. This clearly will take the average way below 70, but without more detailed facts, any guess is as good as any other. Also, longer relationships were the norm, not casual attacks as you seem to claim. Children only have so many relatives and close contacts. Most children only have a handful of adult regular contacts, including relatives.

I still ask you to provide serious references. Hardly any topic is more prone to hysteria and exaggarations, and that even includes scholars who should have known better. Keep it sober, Amazing, even thought it is a very emotional field.

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

7

To: JanH (edited to add data)

by Amazing in

jw
friends

in my response to janh below, where i show i have added material, you will find that the numbers are very interesting.

hi janh: i broke this into a new thread because i want to make sure you see my response to your comment on my other post about the numbers of victims of pedophiles.

also, while you make some good points, i think that some misconceptions needs to be highlighted.. you said, "sorry, these numbers seems totally absurd.

JanH

Ok, a quick Net search was all I had time to do now. See Canadian health service "fact sheet" on http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/hppb/familyviolence/html/csaeng.html

Most offenders are not strangers to their victims. In most cases, they are well known to their victims. Approximately 25 percent of offenders are adolescents.
...
Some offenders have abused more than 70 children before any of the victims disclosed the abuse. In cases in which one offender has abused a large number of victims, the abused children are more likely to be male.
...
Most sexual abuse takes place in the context of an ongoing relationship between the abuser and the child.

This clearly runs counter to your assertions, even if this short summary is not detailed. If you have sources saying the opposite, I would appreciate seeing them.

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

7

To: JanH (edited to add data)

by Amazing in

jw
friends

in my response to janh below, where i show i have added material, you will find that the numbers are very interesting.

hi janh: i broke this into a new thread because i want to make sure you see my response to your comment on my other post about the numbers of victims of pedophiles.

also, while you make some good points, i think that some misconceptions needs to be highlighted.. you said, "sorry, these numbers seems totally absurd.

JanH

Thanks, Amazing.

But I'd like to see actual references to credible sources supporting your figures, also some supporting your assertion that the close family abuse is not typical. This runs counter to everything I've heard before.

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

16

Average Numbers of Victims per Molester (rev)

by Amazing in

i added a post below to janh, number 15, to address some realistic numbers.

some have had difficulty in accepting the number of victims per pedophile i have used, i.e.

i based this on what an attorney who prosecutes such cases against molesters told me.

JanH

Sorry, these numbers seems totally absurd. They fail even the most basic sanity check. Surely, there are a large number of "occasional molesters" who do it once or twice and never again, and even more who do it over a longer time with one or some very few victims. The classic predator who seeks out strangers to abuse is not the typical molestor. The fact that most victims were criminalized by a relative (or, not unausually, a step-parent) is evidence for this. People only have so many relatives.

PS to Amazing: Your "satanic pedophile ring" story is similar to a dangerous urban legend, connected to various media scares in the 70s and 80s, that later proved to be unfounded. See e.g. http://www.religioustolerance.org/urbanft.htm

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

3

ALMOST a good story

by JanH in

jw
friends

it's always that little fact ruining a good story.... anyway, jws in western norway have their district convention right now in stavanger.

some jws had planned to go up to "prekestolen" ("the pulpit") and drink wine this evening (or yd, not entirely certain).

as you will surely agree, the view would be fabolous:.

JanH

Hi Marilyn,

WOW!! No guard rails (fences)? What a great view.

It's a shocking fact I've never been there. Yeah, it's a magnificent view. Not a good place for thunderstorms, though.

Yeah, around here we believe it's a perfectly acceptable thing to kill yourself in nature. I was amazed at how many beautiful spots in the US were ruined by "keep out" signs and guard rails. If people are so dumb they don't understand that falling 597 meters (2,010 feet) into the sea is dangerous, I doubt a "danger" sign would help them. Besides, there already are enough American and British tourists here who like getting lost in the mountains.

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

3

ALMOST a good story

by JanH in

jw
friends

it's always that little fact ruining a good story.... anyway, jws in western norway have their district convention right now in stavanger.

some jws had planned to go up to "prekestolen" ("the pulpit") and drink wine this evening (or yd, not entirely certain).

as you will surely agree, the view would be fabolous:.

JanH

It's always that little fact ruining a good story...

Anyway, JWs in western Norway have their District Convention right now in Stavanger. Some JWs had planned to go up to "prekestolen" ("the pulpit") and drink wine this evening (or yd, not entirely certain). As you will surely agree, the view would be fabolous:

Anyway, some "apostate" friends of mine, who aren't DFd, had wanted to go along to say hi Be as it may, they didn't have time to go, and I haven't even seen confirmed that the JWs really went (or should go).

News just in: Four people on Prekestolen was hit by lightning this afternoon! Apparently, none too badly wounded.

The timing was a bit off, since the afternoon programme is just over for today, a few hours after the lightning hit, so it's unlikely to be the JWs.

But Jehovah was always a bit late anyway, and his aim sucks.

One news source (Norwegian): http://www.vg.no/pub/vgart.hbs?artid=4217372

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

13

VeniceIT

by Yerusalyim in

jw
friends

what would ya be doing right now if you hadn't opened this post?.

wooohooooooooooooo.

note: the direction this post took was not intended to in any way reflect upon veniceit.

JanH

Simon,

I didn't know you could graduate as a wanker. Impressive!

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

3

An open letter from a drunken Norwig

by Rex B13 in

jw
friends

hi fellow apostraphes.....oops, apostates,.

i jest got outta dis local bar and thoiught i would psot some more of my meaningless drivel and hatred of god, who does nto exist.

i luv to castigate..no copulate with jw wimmin because i hate all that they spre... hiccup stand...for.. aheeeemmmmmm, oops, got some drool on me keyboard.. i also like to wear pink and purple tights that display my well rounded whiskey gut.

JanH

At first I thought you had faked it, DubDub, but then I realized your ortography was never that good.

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]

14

women and body issues

by peaceloveharmony in

jw
friends

a friend of mine sent me this article and i wanted to share it with you all.

any comments will be appreciated and i will comment later, when i have more time to organize my thoughts .

mirror, mirror .

JanH

so what, we should blame you?

Mony,

No problem. We just blame our hormones! Pass the buck...

- Jan
--
Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel. [Ambrose Bierce, The Devil´s Dictionary, 1911]