Well, interesting debate! We finally get past the 70 years of desolation an to the 40 years of Egypt. I doubt if anyone will follow this but here's the ACTUAL chronology critical points.
1. the VAT4956 "errors" in lines 3 and 14 are not smiple "scribal errors". They specifically belong tot he same lunar cycle and can be matched to 511BCE. That is, Line 3 that says the Moon was 1 cubit in front of the Rear Foot of the Lion on the 9th of Nisan can be astronomically matched to 511BCE. Use an astroprogram to look it up. And the other ntoed error in Line 14 (by Neugebaurer) of the moon 1 cubit above/below the bright star behind the Lion's Foot, which matches beta-Virginis per Line 18, on the 5th of Sivan, the third month, is in the same lunar cycle and precise match to 511BCE. It is not likely that two "scribal errors" from those guesing about this information would be included in such an important text rather than be simply left out versus an intentional reference to an original chronology that had been revised in which case 511BCE would be alternatively dated by the VAT4956 as year 37 of Nebuchadnezzar.
2. The SK400. Same goes for this text. More "errors", but the interval between the two eclipses that don't match perfectly to 523BCE for "year 7" of Kambyses is the precise eclipse interval in 541BCE. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. It's too specific not to presume an intentional reference. But if so, dating year 7 in 541BCE to Nebuchadnezzar is the same chronology as the VAT4956 dating year 37 by "errors" to 511BCE. Coincidence? No way! These are cryptic references to an original chronology changed for political reasons. Once you get to this point, then you can deal with the reality of the 40 years of Egypt.
THE 40 YEARS FOR EGYPT, WHEN? The Bible dates the 1st of Cyrus in 455BCE by the 70 weeks prophecy since the "word going forth to rebuild Jerusalem is 483 years from the baptism of Christ. If 455BCE is the 1st of Cyrus then 70 years earlier in 525BCE dates the last deportation in year 23 of Nebuchadnezzar which now matches #1 and #2. That is, dating the 1st of Cyrus in 455BCE and adding 70 years gives you year 23 in 525BCE, which matches year 7 in 541BCE per the SK400 and year 37 in 511BCE per the VAT4956, based upon the cryptic "errors" in the latter texts.
Having noted that, we include the reference by Josephus in Antiquities 11.1.1 where he notes that the 70 years of "servitude" to fulfill Jeremiah's prophecy was fulfilled by the "poor people" who were last deported in year 23 of Nebuchandezzar.
This contradicts the Babylonian chronology of course, making the Babylonian Period 26 years longer than the surviving Babylonian general records show, but not the cryptic double-references in the VAT4956 and the SK400 if it is presumed these reference the original chronology. Having noted that, ther eis no problem with Egypt being desolated for 40 years as the Bible prophesied which would begin around the 37th year of Nebuchadnezzar in 511BCE and end 40 years later in 471BCE. This is 9 years before the fall of Babylon in 462BCE per this chronology which fits other historical references that Egypt was repopulated by the time Cyrus conquers Babylon. This 40 years of desolation of Egypt is not possible with the revised and reduced Neo-Babylonian Period, however.
Those discussing this topic at the other newsgroup don't have the up-to-date information that the "errors" in the VAT4956 and the SK400 can be manipulated to match the 455BCE chronology for the 1st of Cyrus. That is, the double-dating in each text dismisses their validity for the promoted dates of year 7 for Kambyses in 523BCE and year 568BCE for year 37 of Nebuchadnezzar. But when you use the cryptic dating in both texts, which is in complete (coincidental? hardly!) agreement with the Biblical chronology for the 1st of Cyrus in 455BCE, the 40 years of Egypt being desolated has no problems.
Of note, though, about the time the 40 years of desolation was to end, an Egyptian dyansty ends. It would interesting to look at precisely which kingships we are looking at and what supports their reigns for this period. It shouldn't be that difficult since Pharoah Necho is well-established in the Babylonian chronology during the reign of Nebuchadnezzar and the king ruling in his 37th year is the king that would have been deposed. I havent' lookd recently (perhaps I should now) but a dynasy ends around this time per Egyptian chronology. But Egyptian chronology is a BIG MESS with little able to be confirmed sometmies, so that's another story.
HERE'S THE BASICS FOR WHAT THE BIBLE LAYS OUT FROM THE FALL OF JERUSALEM TO THE RETURN, NO DATES:
19th of Nebuchadnezzar, Fall of Jerusalem, 74 years to the 1st of Cyrus. Jerusalem to drink the bitter cup before the nations including Tyre.
23rd year of Nebuchadnezzar, the 70 years for Tyre and other nations and complete desolation of the land including deportation of the last Jews. Archaeology confirms a 70-80 year period of desolation for some excvations such as Ashkelon to confirm this period of destruction by the Babylonians followed by the Persian Period.
24-25th years of Nebuchadnezzar: After Nebuchadnezzar had conquered all and desolated the entire land of Israel and Judah, though Egypt was spared, he felt pride and bragged about his greatness. A year after this bragging God smote him and he became a beast in the field for 7 years. Thus sometime from his 31st to 32nd years, where we have no records from Babylon. But his throne was preserved.
Year 37: We have Babylonian records plus the Biblical record that Nebuchadnezzar invaded Egypt this year. From here we can count 40 years. From year 23 to yar 37 is 14 years which leaves 56 out of the 70. After 40 years you have 16 years left. Babylon falls 6 years before the 70 years is over, so Egypt has 10 years to redevelop after the 40 years is over allowing plenty of time for them to assist the Babylonians in opposing Cyrus and Darius the Mede when the Medo-Persians began to attack Babylon during the reign of Nabonidus.
FINAL COMMENT: Those believing in 537BCE and 607BCE and even 539BCE are in error for not initially trusting the Bible and dating the 1st of Cyrus in 455BCE instead of relying upon revised Babylonian and Persian records. Those who originally accepted the Biblical chronology which dates the 1st of Cyrus in 455BCE now have both the VAT4956 and the SK400 as extra-Biblical evidence of this chronology and every reason to dismiss the two texts as manipulated and conspiratorial. In the end, the Bible is vindicated totally!
BUT DON'T STOP HERE!!! Use RELATIVE CHRONOLOGY to figure out which pharoah/s were ruling after the 37th year of Nebuchadnezzar to see what is said about them and if their rulerships are truly substantiated or just filled in! There should be some scanty evidence for this period of pharoahs if the Bible is true and Egypt was desolated for these 40 years.
I suppose I'll have to look into this now further, but if the Bible is true, there sould be some inconsistencies in the Egyptian record 37 years or so after the fall of Necho by Nebuchadnezzar, and event you can coordinate with Babylonian, Biblical and Egyptian records. Do the research. Who knows? Something interesting might just pop up.
JC