cofty

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Posts by cofty

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  18

  Put the Blame Where it Belongs

  by cofty in

  1. social
  2. current

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  cofty

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  656

  Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread

  by Simon in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  this topic is to focus on status updates & advice (no opinion or politics please).. status.

  latest status is that it's serious, probably isn't going to be contained and most large companies are making contingency plans, cancelling large events etc... which i don't think would happen if it was just people being alarmist.

  the incubation period means it may have already spread further and infected many more people than are currently known, so expect jumps in the numbers over the coming days and weeks.. tracking.

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  cofty

  SBF - Cases are massively under reported everywhere apart from S Korea where there will still be some under reporting. Death rate in S Korea will not be less than in other western countries. Death rate will not exceed 0.6% of the 30-50% who will be infected. Stop fear-mongering.
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  656

  Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Status Update Thread

  by Simon in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  this topic is to focus on status updates & advice (no opinion or politics please).. status.

  latest status is that it's serious, probably isn't going to be contained and most large companies are making contingency plans, cancelling large events etc... which i don't think would happen if it was just people being alarmist.

  the incubation period means it may have already spread further and infected many more people than are currently known, so expect jumps in the numbers over the coming days and weeks.. tracking.

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  cofty

  Highly recommend Sam Harris' podcast 'Making Sense' with Amesh Adalja released on 11 March.

  Lots of good information. Take away thoughts include, death rate will be 0.6% at most (based on data from South Korea that had a massive testing program). Many people will have no more than a bad cold or flu and make full recovery with no long term lung damage.

  A small percentage of younger healthy people will develop secondary lung infections and require hospital care.

  Some hope of effective antivirus within months but vaccine probably a year away.

  Reasonable social distancing makes sense to flatten the curve and relieve pressure on health provisions.

  Very interesting conversation with an expert who has a common sense approach.

  On the down side he genuinely fears an actual viral apocalypse such as an airborne bird flu with a mortality rate nearer 60% which is a real future possibility.
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  17

  School project on evolution

  by Leonie1234 in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  hey!.

  first of all i want to mention that i'm not a member of the jehovahs witnesses.

  however i'm open and non-judgemental towards any kind of religion.

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  cofty

  I've made that prediction about 20 times now on this forum and been right every single time,
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  17

  School project on evolution

  by Leonie1234 in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  hey!.

  first of all i want to mention that i'm not a member of the jehovahs witnesses.

  however i'm open and non-judgemental towards any kind of religion.

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  cofty

  SB you aren't parroting lots of facile objections that have been answered repeatedly.

  Have you ever invested the time to actually read some science books that present the evidence for evolution?

  I'm predicting the answer is no and that you won't answer the question.
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  17

  School project on evolution

  by Leonie1234 in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  hey!.

  first of all i want to mention that i'm not a member of the jehovahs witnesses.

  however i'm open and non-judgemental towards any kind of religion.

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  cofty

  Here is some perspective on the list of so-called scientists who dissent from Darwinism. By the way many of the signatories were deceived and have asked to have their names removed.

  Here is a list of scientists called Steve who assent to the following statement. - "Evolution is a vital, well-supported, unifying principle of the biological sciences, and the scientific evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of the idea that all living things share a common ancestry. Although there are legitimate debates about the patterns and processes of evolution, there is no serious scientific doubt that evolution occurred or that natural selection is a major mechanism in its occurrence. It is scientifically inappropriate and pedagogically irresponsible for creationist pseudoscience, including but not limited to 'intelligent design,' to be introduced into the science curricula of our nation's public schools."

  ...
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  17

  School project on evolution

  by Leonie1234 in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  hey!.

  first of all i want to mention that i'm not a member of the jehovahs witnesses.

  however i'm open and non-judgemental towards any kind of religion.

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  cofty

  Leonie - I apologise for Sea Breeze. As you can see some of us never got over our cult indoctrination and never learned to critique sources.

  He/she is in a minority and we are working on helping him/her but progress is slow.

  Evolution is a Fact...
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  17

  School project on evolution

  by Leonie1234 in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  hey!.

  first of all i want to mention that i'm not a member of the jehovahs witnesses.

  however i'm open and non-judgemental towards any kind of religion.

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  cofty

  Hi Leonie, welcome.

  It really is dishonest of your teacher to present evolution as if it was a matter for serious debate. It is a fact as certain as anything that has been discovered by the scientific method. There is great debate within the science community regarding some of the details - punctuated equilibrium v gradualism; how many branches are there at the root of the taxonomic tree - but the fact that every living thing including the more than 99% of extinct species all evolved from a common ancestor by a process of unguided evolution over millions of years is an indisputable fact.

  If I were you I would make that abundantly clear in my answer.

  The only people who reject the fact of evolution are motivated by religious ideology. Most religious people have no problem with it but Muslims, evangelical christians and JWs are exceptions.

  As a JW your teacher will have got his information from two or three absolutely dreadful and intellectually dishonest books published by the Watchtower Society. There are a number of sources on the internet that take these books apart line by line.

  Outside the JW religion opposition to evolution is led mostly by the Discovery Institute and their spokesmen such as Michael Behe, Stephen Myer and Wm Dembsky. They promote a form of creationism called Intelligent design which uses objections such as 'irreducible complexity' and 'specified complexity'. This approach, that was invented purely to get around the law that forbade creationism being taught in American schools was exposed in a legal trial Kitzmiller v Dover School Board. You will find info on YouTube and coverage here at the ncse website.

  If I can offer any more help let me know. I would personally use your assignment to attack all forms of creationism for the superstitious ideology that it is, but I don't have to worry about grades.

  Here is a series of threads you might find helpful. Evolution is a Fact Parts 1 - 40...
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  43

  “I’m young and healthy so coronavirus won’t affect me” (why we need to stop this disease at ALL costs!)

  by slimboyfat in

  1. social
  2. current

  even if you are young and heathy there are very good reasons to fear this disease and take drastic actions to avoid it individually, and halt it together as communities.

  not only would it be traumatic as a society to lose so many old and unwell family members and friends, but survivors of the disease may suffer significant health problems in the future.

  survivors of the first sars virus in 2003 have suffered significant lung problems.

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  cofty

  Of course the number who have the virus is much higher than the number of positive tests. The NHS is no longer testing people who report symptoms unless they are vulnerable. What is known for certain is the number of deaths. It follows that the mortality rate is lower than expected.
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  43

  “I’m young and healthy so coronavirus won’t affect me” (why we need to stop this disease at ALL costs!)

  by slimboyfat in

  1. social
  2. current

  even if you are young and heathy there are very good reasons to fear this disease and take drastic actions to avoid it individually, and halt it together as communities.

  not only would it be traumatic as a society to lose so many old and unwell family members and friends, but survivors of the disease may suffer significant health problems in the future.

  survivors of the first sars virus in 2003 have suffered significant lung problems.

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  cofty

  Where is the evidence that it causes permanent lung damage in people with no underlying health issues?

  Anecdotes and internet rumours don't equal evidence.