Posts by Chaserious

48

Long Term Effect of Conti & Similar Cases?

by Chaserious in

i was commenting in another thread this morning and saw speculation that the conti verdict will hasten the wts' decline, beyond just the money they may have to pay in that case itself.

i have seen this mentioned a number of times and it got me thinking and doing a bit of research.

i think the speculation and hope is that it will give rise to similar lawsuits which will meet with similar success.

Chaserious

My take on the replacement letter is that it's designed to shield them from liability. If they find out about child abuse, they call legal "immediately" according to the directions, and legal tells them whether they have to report it or not. If they do have to report, they will do so and thus be shielded from liability, and if they don't have to report based on state law, they can't be held liable for failure to do so in that state. As long as legal gives them accurate advice, it should make them legally bulletproof on the reporting front, except maybe in the unlikely scenario that someone is molested in the interim while they are getting legal advice. Regarding the warrant/subpoena issue, anyone is entitled to call their lawyer before complying with a subpoena. Same thing with a search warrant. They are advised not to physically stop officers with a search warrant, but to otherwise object to a search and call legal. Similarly, anyone in the U.S. has a right to refuse to consent to a warrantless search and to seek legal advice. No court can allow liability to be imposed for exercising one's legal rights.

48

Long Term Effect of Conti & Similar Cases?

by Chaserious in

i was commenting in another thread this morning and saw speculation that the conti verdict will hasten the wts' decline, beyond just the money they may have to pay in that case itself.

i have seen this mentioned a number of times and it got me thinking and doing a bit of research.

i think the speculation and hope is that it will give rise to similar lawsuits which will meet with similar success.

Chaserious

jgnat - I think it's possible they might see some decreased attendance. But I think the average JW is going to dismiss it and say that there are always going to be a few bad JWs here and there, and this is just the attempt of some money-hungry lawyer who is trying to make the poor WTS pay for what some regular publisher did. The average JW doesn't know anything about what is lacking in their child abuse policies. This is where their lack of transparency actually benefits the WTS. Unlike Catholics, most JWs don't go to outside media sources to get news about the WTS, so they go blissfully forward thinking there is no problem.

Also, you are right about no transparency and no apology, but unfortunately you can't be forced to pay money on that account. I think on the part of the Catholic Church they did those for PR reasons. WTS doesn't need to use PR since they give out PR to their own members internally and forbid reading of outside negative coverage about JWs. As far as changes, haven't they made some? I thought the smoking gun in the Conti case was the 1989 letter to elders about keeping abuse hush-hush, which has since been replaced/retracted?

Edit: wha happened beat me to it about the typical JW response.

57

Watchtower softens position on Jehovah' Witnesses and blood transfusions? Canadian National Post Story.

by Balaamsass in

without fanfare, jehovahs witnesses quietly soften position on blood transfusionstom blackwell, national post staff | dec 20, 2012 9:59 pm et.

Chaserious

I don't think they're dropping the blood ban, they are just signing forms that basically say "We don't want you do give my kid blood, but if it was serious enough where you would otherwise go to court, just do the blood instead of taking us to court; we know we would lose in court anyway." It's a loophole. Also, I think this is only for minors. Competent adults still have to die instead of taking blood if it comes down to it.

Also - if they did change the blood policy they would face no legal liability in the U.S. Moral outrage, I would have to think, is another story.

24

Will the Watchtowers growth in the third world keep them around for decades to come?

by tootired2care in

i suspect the wt is going to continue to see slowing growth in all western lands as time goes on.

it seems to me though that there is so many potential suckers out there in the third world that will keep coming into the wt because of lack of internet, education or falling victim to love bombing as many of us did here at one time.

i think it's going to get really tough for them as the western land money dries up though.

Chaserious

Cedars - Very interesting observations. I hope "the retreat" happens to completion in our lifetime as well.

I have a couple of observations - Somehow I don't think they will let Africa (or anywhere else) be a drain on them. They know how to run a business and no business lets one subsidiary be a constant albatross on the neck the parent company. I suspect if they see continued growth and not a corresponding increase in $$$ on the horizon, they will address it. They could do it by more localized printing, where I imagine the cost is less than shipping in literature. They could also take steps to restrict growth there, like discontinuing missionaries in very poor areas, etc. I know they love their publisher increases, but I think they would sacrifice some of it in favor of profitability.

The other thing is that I really don't see the Conti case hurting them much beyond that case itself. I don't see a host of additional victims waiting in the woodwork to come out if this verdict is upheld. Also, I don't think that every cases is going to go nearly as well for the plaintiffs. As I started to look into this, I had some other thoughts, so I decided to start a new topic since it's not really on topic here:

http://jehovahs-witness.net/watchtower/beliefs/243850/1/Long-Term-Effect-of-Conti-Similar-Cases#4596040

48

Long Term Effect of Conti & Similar Cases?

by Chaserious in

i was commenting in another thread this morning and saw speculation that the conti verdict will hasten the wts' decline, beyond just the money they may have to pay in that case itself.

i have seen this mentioned a number of times and it got me thinking and doing a bit of research.

i think the speculation and hope is that it will give rise to similar lawsuits which will meet with similar success.

Chaserious

I was commenting in another thread this morning and saw speculation that the Conti verdict will hasten the WTS' decline, beyond just the money they may have to pay in that case itself. I have seen this mentioned a number of times and it got me thinking and doing a bit of research. I think the speculation and hope is that it will give rise to similar lawsuits which will meet with similar success. However, I feel this may be overly optimistic, and wanted to see what you all think. My speculation is dealing with the US only.

First of all, just for the sake of comparison, the total cost to the Catholic Church for sexual abuse cases has been about $2 Billion according to the NY Times. (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/r/roman_catholic_church_sex_abuse_cases/index.html). I think this is just referring to the United States. Another study claims it's about $3.2 Billion. http://www.bishop-accountability.org/settlements/#largest_settlements. Granted, whatever number is accurate, it could still increase. Lets say that the number eventually reaches $4B. Now, the WTS in the United States is a little under 2% of the size of the R.C.C. Statistically speaking, if the ratio of abuse and lawsuits is eqivalent, that would mean about $80 Million in settlements for the WTS. Even if they ended up paying 5% of what the Catholic Church has, which would mean it did proportionally worse, that would be $200M all told. Not cheap, but merely the cost of a couple of buildings from the Brooklyn portfolio. Or put another way, interest on one year's donations in a average year in the hedge fund game.

Aside from statistics, why is there reason to think sexual abuse will not seriously injure the WTS in light of possibly paying $11M in the Conti case? Well, I don't see a host of additional victims waiting in the woodwork to come out if this verdict is upheld. People and lawyers alike have known for years that you can sue churches for sexual abuse, and I imagine that those inclined to do so have already filed their suits. Of course, there will be additional cases, even from years ago as victims first come to grips with their abuse and bring the molestation into the light of day. Also a victim leaving the WTS might prompt him to file suit, since of course one is not free to do so while in good standing in the congregation. However, I don't see all such plaintiffs meeting with similar success. First, the cases would probably have to involve abuse from 10-15+ years ago. Even if the WTS's policy is not morally improved, I think it's legally improved in order to shield the WTS from liability in more recent years, just as the Catholic Church has changed their procedures for legal reasons.

Further, everything about the Conti case made her a perfect plaintiff. She is young, likeable and well-spoken. This is the kind of person juries like to give a lot of money to. She was abused by someone who had abused before, is an admitted abuser, and the elders knew about it. Every other case is not going to be so perfect. Some might be he said/she said cases where the abuser denies it and there is really no other evidence. Some might be cases where the elders didn't know anything until after the fact. Some might be cases where the elders didn't follow the WTS protocol, which would probably insulate the WTS from liability. And of course, some plaintiffs won't be as likeable as Candace. If you look at Catholic Church verdicts/settlements, the average per victim is in the hundreds of thousands, not millions. (http://www.bishop-accountability.org/settlements/#largest_settlements). We really have to admit that not all juries are going to be as favorable as the one in Oakland. Not to mention the fact that some juries might agree there is abuse, but not want to blame the national organization for a rank-and-file member's abuse. In every case, in order to recover from the WTS the plaintiff has to prove, not only that there was abuse, but that if not for the WTS' policy or specific action in that case, the abuse would not have happened to the victim. This is a problem that the Catholic plaintiffs don't have to deal with, since usually the molester is a paid employee of the Church, which makes it a lot easier to trace blame up the ladder. My bottom line is that I expect the total price tag of Conti and similar cases to be at worst, $80-200 Million. Money they'd rather keep their paws on, but relatively speaking, not a huge deal.

17

The NFL game to watch this week

by Glander in

san francisco 49'ers vs the red hot seattle seahawks.... i am torn as a 49'er fan and a current 'hawks fan.. vegas is giving sf a 53-47% edge.

that's pretty close..

Chaserious

Gutsy move to stick with Kaepernick mid-season after Smith got healthy, but it's really paid off so far. I don't think anyone considered the Niners a superbowl favorite with Smith, but with Kaepernick, who knows. Although for game of the week, Vikings v. Texans should be good, too. Two best RBs in football, going head to head.

24

Will the Watchtowers growth in the third world keep them around for decades to come?

by tootired2care in

i suspect the wt is going to continue to see slowing growth in all western lands as time goes on.

it seems to me though that there is so many potential suckers out there in the third world that will keep coming into the wt because of lack of internet, education or falling victim to love bombing as many of us did here at one time.

i think it's going to get really tough for them as the western land money dries up though.

Chaserious

I don't think they will be "closing their doors or going down in flames" in our lifetime. Even in developed countries, they won't just vanish, although I think we will soon see numbers declining. There is still a contingent of diehard young people in the U.S., as well as some old folks who have their houses, bank accounts, etc bequeathed to the WTBTS. I'm sure they have lots of $$$ earning a good return in sophisticated investment vehicles at HQ, and they are still land rich. Worst case, they can downsize bethel to a few hundred and rule from their compound in Orange County.

83

Final prayer after fieldservice today.

by El_Guapo in

hi guys,.

i was asked to give final prayer today after the field service meeting.

i asked for jah to bless and comfort the families of the newtown, ct massacre.

Chaserious

Not surprised. I remember going to the meeting on Sept 11, 2001. It was a Tuesday, and we had our TMS & Service meeting on Tuesdays in my hall. I was a 19 year old MS, and I remember it not only because it was 9/11, but because I has just been appointed and had my first "big boy" part that was a part in the meeting reserved for Ministerial Servants or Elders. I wondered if anything would be said about 9/11, and it seemed to me like something should. My part had nothing to do with any topic that could be tied to the subject and I basically just gave it straight, afraid to deviate with it being my first part and all. Nothing was said about the attacks except in the prayer, and it had something to do with preaching to the people affected. I thought that was terrible to have a "Christian Meeting" and say nothing about the people affected by the events that very day. But I felt badly about it for a while after, because I really was as much to blame as everyone else.

21

Are you at the point of your life where you speak out boldly with JWs?

by jam in

jw
friends

what a wonderful feeling.

they think i am nuts.

lol.

Chaserious

I hardly ever see JWs I knew out and about since I live a half hour away from the KH I used to attend. But I couldn't help it once at a family wedding where there were only 4 JWs there, including my father and mother in law. I went right up to him in front of some people who knew he was my father in law and say hi with a big smile and stuck my hand out for a handshake. He didn't shake my hand and walked away. Made my night. Made for good conversation with my table too. Moshe, you are so right about how it only works when you play by their rules.

44

the dumbest thing a CO ever said

by nowwhat? in

"if it was'nt for the preaching work there would be millions more witnesses" - he was saying jehovah wants quality not quantity.. si i'm thinking, what's the difference as long as he has a people that live by bible standards and are moral.

maybe sharing their hope and faith with friends and relatives on a casual basis?

how backwards is that?.

Chaserious

Actually, he is probably right. I don't know about millions though. Door to door work brings practically nobody in, and it's a turn off to some who are unbelieving-relative sympathizer types who don't want to join because of the embarrassment that is peddling magazines door to door.