Posts by traveb

It's amazing how the WTS glosses over David's numerous sins, and love how Blondie hammers this point over and over. I actually never thought about David's ignoring his daughter's rape before in that context.

57

The new kids DVD - was it deliberate? What are we missing?

by cedars in

jw
friends

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normally i don't go in for these conspiracy theory ideas, but a comment by kurtbethel on another thread got me to thinking.

might this latest dvd actually be proof that there are operatives inside watchtower hq who are deliberately sabotaging the society's material?

traveb

Being around sincere JWs most of the time, they'll eat this up no questions asked. It's ingrained in their culture.

As far as producing such a short DVD, it's purely for profit. It costs the WTS pennies per DVD to produce. Remember, most conventions (at least in the Western word) are money makers. The average JW on their way out will total it up in their head, "Let's see, I got two brochures and two DVDs, I better donate X amount of dollars".

188

World map showing net reduction in publisher numbers

by cedars in

jw
friends

mp has asked which country has lost the most publishers, and i decided to investigate.

one thing led to another, and i decided to produce another world map, this time showing the net reduction in publishers for each country.. this has been calculated by means of the following equation for each country:.

2011 total no.

traveb

As far as I'm concerned, it's settled. As I've tried to explain, I use the term "net decrease" in its broadest possible sense, i.e.

Net = after deductions

decrease = a reduction in figures

In this case, the 'deduction' is the baptism figure, or my "growth indicator". In most countries, once this is taken from the gross increase (difference in publishers from one year to the next) you have a "net" (after deductions) "decrease" (the number goes down).

I think the above methodology is what confused most people, including myself. I visualize it like this:

Let's say you have a congregation of 100 publishers at the beginning of the service year. For simplicity's sake let's say no one dies or moves. During the year little Johnny and Susie become publishers. However, Bro. Fader becomes inactive and stops turning in time so he is no longer counted as a publisher. At the end of the service year the congregation now has 101 publishers, which is a 1% increase. It is a net increase of 1 in the number of publishers.

Now during this same service year 5 people in this congregation decide to get baptized. They are teenagers and progressive Bible studies who had become publishers in previous years. At the end of the service year the congregation still has 101 publishers, a net increase of 1, or a 1% growth rate.

However, using your methodology and terminology above you would take the 5 baptisms in the congregation and deduct it from 1, the "gross" increase in publishers, resulting in a "net" decrease of 4 for the service year. That makes no sense. How can a congregation which grew in publishers (from 100 to 101) have a net decrease in publishers?

188

World map showing net reduction in publisher numbers

by cedars in

jw
friends

mp has asked which country has lost the most publishers, and i decided to investigate.

one thing led to another, and i decided to produce another world map, this time showing the net reduction in publishers for each country.. this has been calculated by means of the following equation for each country:.

2011 total no.

traveb

I was confused by Cedars' chart too, but couldn't explain it in words until I thought about my own local congregation.

There are older teens that have been publishers for 10+ years, yet have never been baptized. It's fairly common around here for kids to become publishers at a young age, like around 5-7 years old. What this means is that a congregation's publisher count can grow year over year, even with zero baptisms. As long as people keep turning in time, they are counted as publishers. Baptism has nothing to do with it. Theoretically, a person can remain a publisher indefinitely without ever being baptized.

Even when one of these kids gets baptized, the publisher count stays exactly the same. The only time a congregation experiences a publisher decrease is if someone becomes inactive (stops turning in time), is disfellowshipped, dies, or moves. So, thinking about it on a local level, the number of baptisms in a congregation has nothing to do with the increase or decrease in the number of publishers.

49

The Predictions Thread

by cedars in

jw
friends

i thought it might be interesting and fun to have a "predictions thread", where we set out our predictions for events to unfold concerning the watch tower society (or jehovah's witnesses in general) over the coming years/decades.. it strikes me that so much has happened in the last ten years, most of which has defied expectations.

here's just a few of the developments that i can think of:.

the abolishment of group book studies in favor of a "family worship evening"the creation of a "study edition" watchtowerthe halving of monthly magazine printing commitmentsthe unprecedented closure/merging of branches (16% reduction in branches last year)the menlo park scandal, a body of elders removed for resisting a refurb of their kingdom hallthe lawsuits in victoria, australia - the society taken to court concerning child protection lawscourtroom admissions about the faithful & discreet slave and similarities with the catholic churchincreased hate speech against "mentally diseased" apostatesastonishing lapses of judgment, such as the "selma and steve" study articlethe ditching of gilead as a school for missionariesambitious construction plans for a new world hq (with or without jehovah's blessing!

traveb

In my opinion, I think the WTS will ease up on it's dogma rather than clamp down harder as other posters have guessed. I realize they talk tough in the magazines, but most of the actions they have taken in the last few years have made things much easier and less time-consuming for the average publisher.

The WTS has to recognize the declining growth rates. If the decline in baptisms like we saw last year continues they'll make changes to encourage people to convert and stick around. Basically, "mainstream" the religion so it's not so weird. This could include:

Phase out blood transfusion restriction (they're already doing this silently)
Ease up restrictions on talking to DFed family members ("Shunning Lite"?)
Stop bashing higher education in every other article
Make field service somewhat voluntary by not requiring time slips be turned in every month

This is just off the top of my head. In typical WTS fashion they actually don't have to come out and actually say they're changing a policy, they just stop talking about it. People will get the hint and elders will be relieved because they don't have to enforce it anymore.

I think in general most JW's love the social/family aspect of the religion, but absolutely dread or despise going out in field service. How many more would stay with the religion or be encouraged to get baptized if they didn't have to do field service? Perhaps hand out a tract every couple months and let the hardcores pioneer.

Doctrinally, the only change I think the WTS WILL have to make is changing the idea of 144,000 to being a figurative, not literal, number. Just like they were forced to change the generation doctrine in 1995, time will force their hand in changing the 144,000 doctrine.

47

2012 DC Program

by blondie in

jw
friends

digital publications.

books and brochures.

http://www.jw.org/index.html?option=qryqcsvrglbbx.

traveb

"Guilt trip yo-yo", I like that phrase! Describes my friend exactly. I feel sorry for people like that, but unfortunately there's not much you can do for them unless they decide on their own to get off the guilt trip express the WTS puts people on.

I copied and pasted a few of the talk titles that sound particularly guilt trip inducing:

Do You Have a Balanced View of Yourself?
Symposium: Beware of Dangerous Heart Conditions!
“Cunning of Heart” (Proverbs 7:10)
“Double Heart” (Psalm12:2)
“Halfhearted” (Psalm 119:113)
“In Want of Heart” (Proverbs 7:7; 10:21)
Avoid Testing God in Your Heart

No obvious references to Facebook, porn, or vampire movies in any of the talk titles but I'm sure they will slip them in somewhere.

47

2012 DC Program

by blondie in

jw
friends

digital publications.

books and brochures.

http://www.jw.org/index.html?option=qryqcsvrglbbx.

traveb

Oh man, this is going to be a painful one to sit through this year just by reading the titles of those talks. For sincere JWs this is going to be one gigantic guilt-trip. It isn't enough that you aren't doing anything bad, but now you have to question your "heart". Ugh

This reminds me, I have a friend who always gets wound up by these assemblies. Without fail, he'll call me up after the convention and tell me how he threw out a DVD or video game or whatever the talks told him to do. That will last for a couple months then he'll go right back to doing whatever he was doing before. I wonder how long the effect from this new convention program will last?

322

My son was murdered today

by truman in

i have been on this site daily, almost from its beginning, since i left the jws in 2001, but i have been more of a reader than a poster, as you can see from my post count.

i know few here know me, although i know many of you through reading your posts.

maybe it is not right to ask for support, when i generally stay quietly in the background of this forum, but i want only to speak a human misery of the deepest kind.

traveb

Wow, that is absolutely shocking. I read about this tragedy in the local paper and had no idea it was a JW who was murdered.

I'm not sure how to best express my thoughts about this, but I'm so sorry for your loss.

72

Menlo Park KH - Elder Tells All - and more

by Juan Viejo2 in

i've published part one of a three part series about the menlo park kh scandal.

http://ex-jw.com/menlo-park-elder-tells-all-1.

this has been a tough one for me.. the original federal case was dismissed in january.

traveb

Reading through the transcripts posted in Part 2 should leave no doubt in anyone's mind that the WTS is now for all intents and purposes a real estate holding company on a vast scale. If a JW who perhaps isn't completely enamored with the Society's direction but still likes to donate to the "local" fund to help out with congregation expenses, they are unknowningly still funding the WTS indirectly due to the bylaws that have been added to most local corporations.

The way the Menlo Park elders were treated by the CO and the WTS should really give people pause. It turns my stomach just thinking about it.