World map showing net reduction in publisher numbers

by cedars 188 Replies latest jw friends

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  cedars

  Hi everyone

  mP has asked which country has lost the most publishers, and I decided to investigate. One thing led to another, and I decided to produce another world map, this time showing the net reduction in publishers for each country.

  This has been calculated by means of the following equation for each country:

  2011 total no. baptized - (2011 average publishers - 2010 average publishers) = net reduction in publishers during 2011

  Obviously, the net reduction figure also includes deaths and publishers emigrating, however a large portion of these stats will be down to people leaving the organization either through disfellowshipping or disassociation. At the very least, the figures show that in significant swathes of the earth there is a high turnover in publisher numbers.

  Here is the map:

  

  Here is the data on which the map was based:

  

  I'm no maths genius, so if any of you mathematicians/statisticians out there spot a fatal flaw in my calculations, please tell me!

  The following graph, which appears on www.jwfacts.com demonstrates the trend for baptisms, which reduced significantly last year, from 294,368 (in 2010) to 263,131 (in 2011).

  

  If the baptism rates continue to fall (bearing in mind the number of hours required per baptism is going up), then the baptisms will no longer be able to keep pace with the number of those leaving/dying, and this would result in negative publisher growth (or an overall decrease).

  I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on this.

  (As always, don't forget to take part in the 2012 JW survey if you haven't already done so!)

  Cedars
• 

  jookbeard

  brilliant Ceders
• 

  Soldier77

  I did a similar chart/spreadsheet for my folks about 2 years ago. The numbers don't lie do they? A lot can be extrapolated from them and when I did hours per baptism which was (at that time) over 5500, to the decreasing growth, my mom was floored. I talked about my findings to others I somewhat trusted to give me their opinion, one elder said he was aware of the decrease or stagnation in growth on a global scale, but was happy (happified?) that our area was showing an increase.

  Boggles my mind constantly on the ignorance or blind faith rather, that people still "in" believe. I'm so glad to be rid of that bs!
• 

  cofty

  Nothing like facts to cut through the BS.

  Well done Cedars.
• 

  sir82

  The baptisms chart is telling. You can see how events have affected the WTS.

  Slow & steady growth through the mid-90's.

  Mid-90's: 1st "generation" change, appears to push Armageddon into the distant future. Baptism rate drops preciptously.

  2001: 9/11 attacks: Baptism rate stops declining & levels off

  2006: Introduction of "Bible Teach" book, an even more dumbed-down study guide. Led by 3rd world, baptisms tick up again

  2008 - 2010: Worldwide economic crisis, baptisms hold steady

  2011: Economy gradually improves, novelty of "Bible Teach" book has worn off; baptisms drop again

  So what comes now? An even dumber "1st study" book? (I can't imagine how that is possible) A major doctrinal change to make the JWs appear more mainstream, to attract more followers? Hinting at a new date for Armageddon?

  If the baptism rates continues to drop over the next 2-3 years, look for something big as their desperation grows.
• 

  Phizzy

  "look for something big as their desperation grows",

  I agree, they never have seem troubled about retention, because they have always had new ones coming in, but now that number is falling drastically, especially in the places they actually get revenue from, they will indeed become desperate.

  They will need before long to raise the contribution level by some means.
• 

  Gayle

  Baptism numbers decreasing is significent. They can only get them so young, without getting into 'infant' baptisms.

  Hours, RVs, B.S. publishers, memorial attenders is so subjective to just "lowering the bar."

  To pickup baptism numbers, maybe they will lower the bar about requiring answering so many questions prior. Maybe the WTS will go back to just a question, 'if they love Jehovah?' DUNK!
• 

  I quit!

  They can only get them so young, without getting into 'infant' baptisms.

  Well there you go. A new way to show growth. Problem is they'd be df'ing 5 year olds for conduct unbecomig a Christian if they were caught watching the wrong cartoon shows on TV.

  Good job Cedars. I think the Watchtower will continue to die. It's too easy to research them nowadays.
• 

  00DAD

  Cedars, great job as always.

  You should be able to adjust for deaths by getting published statistics on Death Rates/population.

  It would also be interesting to see how those raw numbers relate to percentage of population. Obviously bigger, more populated countries will tend to have larger numbers, but which countries are having the highest percentage of JWs leave?
• 

  BluesBrother

  Well done, Cedars !

  Of course none of this compares to the heady days of the 1974 Service Year when around 2 million publishers baptized 297,872 new ones. They recorded a whopping 13.5% increase that year...

  "Those were the days" they would sigh...