However, they are still experiencing modest growth.
Without anything to back my assertion up, I would still venture a guess and say that over 80-85% of that growth is internally related. In other words, minors of jw parents. I mean, c'mon, how many actually get baptized from being pulled in through field service? Whenever people on this board report back from assemblies, most mention that the majority of those getting baptized are young people. Yeah, right. Young people who have no ties to the jws are coming into the org on their own.
This is the growth we are seeing right now. And as time goes on and the more families become reliant on the internet for everyday activities, these pre-baptized jw youth will start researching things on their own. Family and peer pressure to get baptized will not phase them as much. Because once they see they can still keep their friends and family withoutgetting dunked, why bother? Why commit? The wts has to see this. If I were them, I would come up with a new doctrine explicitly tying baptism with salvation - even if you die before armageddon. Forget this wishy-washy "jehovah is the judge" crap. Because the way most are starting to see it, if they feel armageddon won't come within their lifetime, what is the incentive to commit themselves to the wts? THERE IS NO INCENTIVE. Hence, they need to change this doctrine pronto to keep the numbers up and to keep the flock scared of losing their salvation even if their sins get washed away at death.