ABibleStudent - Putin is playing a waiting game, which is why I chose the "Go" analogy, until news organizations redirect their reporters to more sensationalistic news. Putin can do whatever he wants without the international news media present.
I wanted to go Salsa dancing tonight, but I still don't feel comfortable about sweating until my contact dermatitis heals more. My dog is banned from roaming in the shady brush (i.e., poison oak) near my home indefinately. So, I started thinking about what might significantly influence equity markets in the coming weeks and months. News events can affect markets, but don't ask me in what direction, because I don't know.
The Ukrainian situation has been on my mind for the last 1-1/2 months, because it does have potential to move markets. As an options trader, I just want prices to move in the short-term and mitigate my longer-term risks by hedging my positions. Because the Ukrainian situation has been out of the lime-light compared to locating flight MH370, I started thinking what would I do if I was Putin.
I would:
- Change Russian military/political tactics to keep foriegn governments off-balance through lying and deception.
- Keep the newly formed Ukrainian government off-balanced by fermenting unrest by supporting dis-infranchised Russian-speaking Ukrainians, maintaining troops near the Ukrainian borders, and making unrealistic demands for natural gas payments,
- Control information to Russians and show Russians how strong and important they were under the former Soviet Union,
- Allow Western politicians to make inflammatory political rhetoric to use as sound bites for Russian propaganda reports and to follow out-of-date contingency plans, and
- Wait for a perfect combination of weather, timing, and circumstances to mobilize Russian troops.
If I am right about Putin's and his administrations ambitions, the Russian military will invade first eastern and/or southern Ukraine during a weekend or upcoming long holiday with cool temperatures, dizzle to light rain, and overcast skies for a week or so before scheduled elections on May 25, 2014. The aforementioned factors would hide Russian troop movements from satellites as well as limit the number of people, who would want to block military movements and minimize casualties.
April 12 through April 19, 2014 could be very interesting for Ukrainians and equity markets, because the aforementioned conditions will be met according to Easern Ukraine accuweather.com satellite images and weather forecasts, and when Ukrainains celebrate Easter on 20-April-2014 according to http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/ukraine/easter-sunday.
Of course, everything I am writing about is hypothetical. I wonder how different people will react to the same news stories. Run and hide, or overcome their fears and take advantage of opportunities.
In the end I hope that if Russians do invade Ukraine that casualties will be minimal and everyone, including Americans, Ukrainians and Russians learn to critically think for themselves. Skepticism can be a good thing.
Peace be with you and everyone, who you love,
Robert