No, even the first living thing would not be totally random. The molecules that were present have chemical affinities for one another and only bond in specific ways, so it's not like throwing parts together and making a car. If "random chance" means "without purpose or intention" than you have a philosophical, not a scientific question. You can always walk back one step and ask, "Well, was THAT random?" It doesn't really go anywhere. The only way forward is to propose a way of detecting purpose or intention in a way that is not a false analogy or logically flawed in some other way.
eric356
JoinedPosts by eric356
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14
Random chance or design?
by goddidit ini don't read too much jw material because it's pretty much all the same old rubbish and the constant lies and propaganda drives me nuts.. however, i've noticed a common theme with the 'argument from design' articles.
you know, look at the eye, isn't it complex, evolution is wrong, blah blah.
all the ones i've seen end in a question like "what do you think, is this a product of random chance or design?".
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14
Random chance or design?
by goddidit ini don't read too much jw material because it's pretty much all the same old rubbish and the constant lies and propaganda drives me nuts.. however, i've noticed a common theme with the 'argument from design' articles.
you know, look at the eye, isn't it complex, evolution is wrong, blah blah.
all the ones i've seen end in a question like "what do you think, is this a product of random chance or design?".
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eric356
All "analogy"-type arguments from design (like the WT uses) are flawed in this way. David Hume pretty well refuted this line of argument hundreds of years ago. Whenever you hear someone say "Doesn't a painting need a painter?" they are making the same mistake.
There is another, Bayesian formulation of the design argument, but the WT and (nearly all of) its readers are not sophisticated enough to understand it. You can read this (slightly technical) explanation of design arguments by Prof. Neil Manson here: http://home.olemiss.edu/~namanson/DA%20for%20Delight%20in%20Thinking.doc
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Has Anyone Seen the Cover of Weezers New CD?????
by daringhart13 inis it me..........or ............uh........wth?????.
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eric356
The cover is pretty good satire. I also wish to know why the band decided to make this the cover. I don't think most people will get the reference.
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Challenges Facing the Watchtower Org
by eric356 inive been thinking about the future of the watchtower organization and the challenges it faces in coming decades.
its difficult to address the issue without allowing personal feelings affect the analysis.
many people seem to think that the society will collapse fairly soon, based mostly on the fact that the person dislikes the leadership or cant understand how others can believe the doctrine.
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eric356
I’ve been thinking about the future of the Watchtower Organization and the challenges it faces in coming decades. It’s difficult to address the issue without allowing personal feelings affect the analysis. Many people seem to think that the Society will collapse fairly soon, based mostly on the fact that the person dislikes the leadership or can’t understand how others can believe the doctrine. Others treat the organization like a cunning, supremely effective collection of cynical liars that will remain in power forever because friends and family seem permanently drawn to the religion. I don’t agree with either of these assessments.
I think that there are several factors that will radically effect the nature of the organization in the future: (1) Tectonic shifts in the publishing business and how people are exposed to information, (2) Demographic shifts and growth in the Third World, (3) Further evolution of societal norms, and (4) brain drain within the ranks of the Organization itself.
(1)
Magazines are a doomed form of mainstream information dissemination. Electronic distribution will replace all but the cheapest and most expensive forms of printed material. (e.g. receipts and art / collectible books will likely still be around). The commercial magazine and newspaper companies are dealing (or not) with this change right now. Small tracts may still be cost effective in the future, but the Watchtower and Awake! will not. Not only will the equipment used to print large numbers of the publications become less common and more expensive, but the general population will grow less and less accustomed to getting information in that format.
The Watchtower has made some moves to accommodate these changes by offering audio podcast and PDF versions of their magazines and books online. However, one has to go to their specific website to download these materials. The Watchtower will not likely offer its materials through the mainstream commercial electronic stores that will sell other electronic documents. This will limit the exposure of their publications unless they adopt a new marketing and distribution model. Why would you physically send a person door-to-door to give people an intangible electronic document? How would you even “give” it to them? What is the relative “value” of 100 electronic copies of the Watchtower versus 100 paper copies?
The organization may prove to be more creative and adaptive then I anticipate. Even so, the shift from physical to electronic information distribution will have a fundamental impact on the personal conception of the Watchtower held by the average JW. The Watchtower has always been primarily a printing company. The door-to-door work is based on the idea of handing out physical copies of the magazines to people. The branch offices and headquarters buildings are largely devoted to the manufacture and distribution of printed material. JWs hold places like Brooklyn Bethel in high esteem. They nearly fetishize the efficiency and sheer magnitude of millions of (paper) magazines and books being printed and packed for shipment. When digital documents are the norm, and all of the equipment and personnel required to make paper ones are no longer needed, the Watchtower will not pay to keep them around. How will JWs view the Society without its fancy printing presses and throngs of well-groomed Bethelites moving to-and-fro? When all Bethel needs to be is a group of writers, graphic designers, and a web server to publish, where is all the physical prestige that the Organization has glorified for so long? It seems to me that the Watchtower has made the actual production and distribution of paper documents so integral to its image and ethos that to change these core elements will weaken their “brand” in the minds of outsiders and reduce pride among members.
(2)
The largest amount of growth in membership for Jehovah’s Witnesses is in South America and Africa. These Third World nations offer much greater promise than the Western developed nations of North America and Europe. Because of this shift, the Watchtower will cater its materials even more to relatively uneducated, economically desperate, and superstitious populations. Some evidence to support this includes Watchtower articles about spiritistic or local customary practices that are not common in developed countries, and a more conspicuous emphasis on pre- or non-scientific doctrines.
Talking more candidly about the danger of demons, the risks of spiritism, and extreme Biblical literalism are not great marketing themes in the developed world, but are very popular in developing nations. The Watchtower appears to be comfortable with adjusting its methods to suit these exotic new markets and is willing to sacrifice relevance to people living in technologically advanced countries. Over the years, these changes may make the Organization hardly recognizable and less palatable to members in advanced Western lands. This will be the required trade off to maintain growth in the fastest growing markets.
(3)
Shifts in public opinion in Western countries have shown growing support or acceptance of issues like gay rights, less restrictive definitions of “family”, and religious pluralism. All of these changes are anathema to the conservative Watchtower “morality” based on certain traditional conceptions of how life should be lived. New scientific discoveries, especially in the area of biology and bioengineering, will likely affect how people view life and living things and their relation to any possible creator god. The internet will continue to allow information and rumor to flow freely among people of all types.
All of these trends threaten the hierarchical knowledge control system employed by the Watchtower and will marginalize members living in modern Western societies. In contrast, they may make the religion more appealing to those in politically and economically chaotic developing countries where people are seeking structure and rule of law.
(4)
It seems apparent that the Watchtower Organization is suffering from a self-inflicted brain drain among the local and international leadership. By limiting exposure to outside opinions, the Society severely inhibits Witnesses from developing the critical thinking skills required to run a successful organization. The constant discouraging of higher education and the growing popularity of home schooling among the children of Witnesses further erodes the educational standards of the Organization.
Earlier generations of Witnesses included larger numbers of adult converts of various socioeconomic statuses, and the governing Elders were more likely to have developed secular skills that helped them effectively manage and grow the organization. With generations of Witnesses being born into the religion and knowing nothing else, the diversity of knowledge and experience is greatly reduced. Those who become future Elders or climb the ladder at Bethel have been taught from birth to avoid secular education and focus exclusively on theocratical training. Without these skills, the Watchtower Organization will likely suffer from incompetent management and poor strategic decision-making.
In future decades the Watchtower Society is going to be forced to change and adapt to survive. I doubt the ability of the bureaucratic leadership of the Organization to make these changes with the required speed and competence and remain relevant in the Western world. Corporations fail all the time due to poor management and planning, and the Watchtower is no different. It has a specialized product, market, and consumer, but it still follows the broad patterns of behavior of any business. I think the success of the religion in the past century was due to fairly competent leaders. I don’t think that leaders of similar skill and creativity will continue to be found in the future.
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Can anyone come up with a morally acceptable reason for waiting thousands of years to end wickedness?
by gubberningbody ini can't.. some bar-bet between jehovah and satan balanced against all the evil allowed just doesn't wash..
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eric356
I love how makers of a theodicy will spend so much time denigrating humans as "corrupt", "carnal", and "like moths" that could not possibly understand the purposes of a great God-being. That may be true, but if it is, why is this great God so worried about receiving our worship or soothing our suffering? If were are to God as insects are to us, God must be massively petty and insecure. I couldn't give a damn if every moth in the world was worshipping me, they're moths!
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January 1 WT - Garden of Eden - Most inane article in a while
by eric356 inthe wt has really managed to outdo itself in regards to stupid, poorly researched articles attempting to defend ancient myths as literal history.
the latest effort is the cover article "the garden of eden - myth or fact?".
no moderately educated adult should have to ponder that question for long before answering "myth".
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eric356
Sab - I sometimes wonder whether the Writing Dept. is just stupid or really smart but malevolent. I try to give people the benefit of the doubt and just assume they are stupid. Though in this case, it might be impossible to tell the difference.
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January 1 WT - Garden of Eden - Most inane article in a while
by eric356 inthe wt has really managed to outdo itself in regards to stupid, poorly researched articles attempting to defend ancient myths as literal history.
the latest effort is the cover article "the garden of eden - myth or fact?".
no moderately educated adult should have to ponder that question for long before answering "myth".
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eric356
zid - the link to the magazine is straight from the Watchtower website, which you can verify by hovering over it and reading the text at the bottom of your browser window. The WT is pretty evil, but I don't think they're embedding any malicious code in their PDFs.
I wouldn't want to take their stuff "out of context."
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January 1 WT - Garden of Eden - Most inane article in a while
by eric356 inthe wt has really managed to outdo itself in regards to stupid, poorly researched articles attempting to defend ancient myths as literal history.
the latest effort is the cover article "the garden of eden - myth or fact?".
no moderately educated adult should have to ponder that question for long before answering "myth".
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eric356
The WT has really managed to outdo itself in regards to stupid, poorly researched articles attempting to defend ancient myths as literal history. The latest effort is the cover article "The Garden of Eden - Myth or Fact?". No moderately educated adult should have to ponder that question for long before answering "myth". Would any organization NOT be laughed at and ridiculed if they wrote an article titled "Prometheus and Fire - Myth or Fact?"? The WT has always had crazy beliefs, like all animals being vegetarians before the Flood, but they don't usually put them on the cover, preferring to talk about non-controversial topics like Jehovah loving you or how bad lying is to potential recruits. In many third-World countries, and poorly educated Fundamentalist areas of developed countries, the cover won't raise an eyebrow, but everywhere else, it's going to invite ridicule.
The article totally misrepresents or misunderstands basic science in an effort to lend some secular credence to its wild, mythical fantasies. Obviously, some idiot at the Watchtower half-heard something about Mitochondrial Eve and Y-chromosomal Adam and didn't understand what these words actually mean. They don't understand what a Most Recent Common Ancestor is. They also don't "acknowledge" that these two humans were separated by tens of thousands of years. They also mislead by strongly implying that there was "only one" human male and female at some point.
I think that these types of articles show the Watchtower's ongoing contempt for educated people, knowledge in general, and intellectual honesty. Their publications exclusively target the vulnerable, the uneducated, and the superstitious.
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How Long Can WT Stonewall The Mounting Evidence For Evolution/Age of Man?
by Room 215 inthe evidence for some form of evolution -- and the age of earth and life upon it -- is mounting almost daily.
how long can the wts insulate its followers from the incontrovertible evidence without lapsing into total irrelevance?
what do you think?.
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eric356
The evolution of modern humans from ancestor primate species about 100-200,000 years ago is a well established scientific fact. The Watchtower and other creationist groups will continue to ignore this evidence and smear science and scientists as long as they see it as a threat to their theology. It does not matter what new discoveries are made. They will only change when their faith-based convictions change. Most mainstream forms of Christianity have accepted some type of evolution so as to avoid being made irrelevant in modern secular areas of society. The Watchtower doesn't seem to care that much about how educated or scientifically-minded people view them, so I doubt they will alter their views.
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The Basis for Some of Your Beliefs. Great video by ex-JW (CircuitOverseer)
by whereami inpart 1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zut4jvfjxfg.
part 2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lgxntcbjei.
part 3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dkdmgtxq6o.
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eric356
Pretty good videos. The 'arguments' the society uses in its creationist brochures have some intuitive appeal. A random person on the street may find them convincing on their face, but only a little critical reflection will show how bad they are. Kudos to the maker of the videos for bringing these Societies offences to logic and evidence to light.