Posts by TheStumbler

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

Thanks for the qoutes, I would like to strengthen my argument that the belief that the next generation is degenerate from the last has always been around.

I got the plato quote from Carl Sagan's Demon Haunted World. I just happened to have read that book recently so it stuck in my mind. pretty interesting book - although even Sagan himself falls pray to the belief (in later chapters) that today's youth are not as disciplined/educated as his generation. He believed there's been a dumming down of culture and education.

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

I once saw a quote on here on a thread about a similar subject. It was basically some 15th century (bishop or monk, I think) complaining that the current generation was more evil and wicked than the last and that this was a sure sign that the end was 'just round the corner'.

anyone know what this qoute was?

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

Here was my latest response. I wasn't sure how to play it, I didnt really want to get into a debate about the 'spiritual' condition of the world because it's such a slippery topic and so subjective. With that in mind, here's my latest reply:

So now you are claiming that when you refer to ‘world conditions’ you are ‘mainly’ referring to the ‘spirituality of the masses’. However, it took until your fourth email to even mention ‘spirituality’ and the quotes you sent in your original email were clearly not referring to a ‘spiritual’ decline in the world. Have you honestly been referring to spiritual matters all along or are you now just moving the goal posts because you can’t provide any evidence that the world is declining in any kind of real sense.

What evidence is there for this spirituality? How exactly does one define, or measure a decline in, the ‘spirituality of the masses’, it is such a nebulous concept. You say that people today are more selfish and that this is evidence of a decline in ‘spirituality’ but what evidence is there for an increase in ‘selfishness’?

For the sake of argument, let’s assume you are right and that ‘selfishness’ has increased. If it is the case that an increase of selfishness is evidence of a decline in ‘spirituality’ why is not also the case that an increase in compassion (such as the abolition of torture and slavery, increase in equality etc) is evidence of an improvement in ‘spirituality’. If you permit that changes in spirituality can affect the physical world shouldn’t we expect to see a deterioration of world conditions parallel to a decline in spirituality? Yet when we look at the evidence we find that the opposite is actually happening. You are cherry picking the facts and arbitrarily restricting the permissible evidence for ‘spirituality’ to only include evidence supportive of your preconceived world view.

In doing this, you are (unwittingly, I think) committing the logical fallacy of ‘special pleading’. Special pleading is an argument whereby someone defends a position by alleging that the argument should be exempt from contrary evidence without justifying the exemption. Special pleading allows pretty much any contrary evidence to be ignored or explained away. Here is a famous example of special pleading:

‘What do you mean, you don’t believe there is a pink elephant in my garage! Oh, well, it’s invisible so you can’t see it and it exists spiritually so it has no corporeal body that you can feel, and it exists ‘spiritually’ so is beyond your comprehension, but I assure you, the elephant exists’

Your argument is the equivalent of arguing for the existence of an invisible, undetectable pink elephant – it is both untestable and unprovable.

And you are right to be sceptical of crime statistics but you are however committing the logical fallacy of ‘guilty by association’. It is not enough to argue that some crime statistics are untrustworthy therefore all crime statisticcs are untrustworthy. You have to show specifically why the crime statistics I presented are methodologically flawed.

Even if you could do this it would hardly help your argument because if crime statistics are not to be trusted then on what basis could you argue that crime has increased since 1914? From what you see out of your window? Should we only be sceptical of crime statistics that disagree with your apocalyptic world view?

And you still haven’t answered my questions. Would you rather live in 1900 or today? If you believed the world was better in 1900 then should be an easy question to answer. Surely you’d prefer to live in what you believe is a better world, so why are you reluctant to answer? I’ll put it another way, if you could pick any era when you most like to have lived? What point in history did people enjoy better health, longer lives, high living standards and more rights that today? Your reluctance suggests a lack of conviction in your belief that the world was better in 1900.

And secondly, do you believe liberal society is a worse moral crime than slavery, torture, subjugation of women, religious oppression, and the exploitation of children combined? Because if not, how can you argue that the world has experienced a decline in moral values?

I wonder what reply I get...

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

I got a reply to my latest email and it was basically just moving the goal posts and special pleading.

He accepted the world has got better 'physically' in some ways however argued that the world has gotten worse 'spiritually'. This spiritual decline is obvious (although he accused me of not understanding 'spirituality' despite its obviousness) just by 'looking out of the window'.

This 'spiritual' decline just happens to exhibit itself in ways that are totally unmeasurable such as increased 'selfishness'. He offered no evidence to support the theory that selfishness has increased, it's just self evident apparantly.

He cherry picked the evidence again by citing an increase in sexually transmitted disease (symptom of spiritual decline) while totally ignoring overall improvements in health and diseases prevention and treatment.

And he failed to answer my questions (would he prefer to live in 1900, is liberal society a worse moral crime than slavery etc) again. The fact he is avoiding answering these questions directly suggests he is experiencing at least some cognitive dissonence (I hope) because if he genuinely believed the world was better before 1914 then my questions should be easy to answer.

I take it as a victory of sorts, he clearly can't defend his position that the world is getting worse so has resorted to special pleading. I wonder if he is aware of this (at some level at least) or if he is totally self deluded (years of Watchtower reinforcement that the world is in decline).

In my response I will ask the same questions again and explain some rules of logic and what special pleading is. Maybe he will recognise recognise the falliciousness in his own arguments. Maybe.

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

Thanks for the comments everyone. I'm glad some people found the information useful and I'm glad I could return the favour since JWN has provided me with so much valuable information in the past.

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

It is futile but here is a copy of my response (but I don't know why I bother):

You seem to be confusing facts and opinions. These are facts; the world is healthier than it was 200 years ago, people are living longer, living standards are higher, people are wealthier, fewer children are dying, and the last 60 years have been amongst the most peaceful years in recorded history. The populations of Brazil, India and China account for 40% of global population and their economies are booming and their living standards are improving (to give just one example).

If these facts are incorrect then please explain why but don’t try to dismiss them as mere ‘opinion’ equal in value to your own. You are entitled to your own opinions and beliefs but you are not entitled to you own facts.

You say we see the world from different perspectives and I agree but surely we both agree that the facts mentioned above are improvements - or would you prefer people to have shorter lives and more children to die before reaching adulthood?. And if we agree that these are improvements (and I am assuming that you do agree) and yet you still maintain that the world is still getting worse overall then the world must be getting worse in ways that I have not considered. And I am open to this possibility. But in what ways is the world getting worse (and so badly worse that the negatives outweigh all of the improvements combined)?

You have not given any examples apart from the fact that there are more divorces, more children are born outside of marriage and homosexuals can openly live together.. Let’s define this ‘immorality’ broadly as the liberalisation of society; ‘liberal society’.

Unlike global health and living conditions etc which can be measured objectively, the liberalisation of society is a moral issue and therefore is subjective and a matter of opinion. (I happen to think the liberalisation of society is a massive improvement but that is because I am a libertarian)

If your argument is that ‘liberal society’ is more immoral than slavery, apartheid, judicial torture, capital punishment of children, persecution of minorities, subjugation of women, and lack of human rights combined then yes, you are right, based on that premise, moral values are indeed declining. And you are entitled to that opinion. But is that really a premise you are willing to argue from? Do you honestly believe that ‘liberal society’ is worse than the list of crimes against humanity that I have listed above – all of which were more prevalent before the 20 th century? Or are moral values declining in other ways that you have not yet mentioned?

And I will ask you again. Would you rather have lived in 1900 when average life expectancy and standards, health and living conditions were lower, when your children would have had less chance of reaching adulthood, when homosexuals were imprisoned, where women were not treated as equals etc. In what way was 1900 better than today?

On a side note - in your last emailed you said 'You may have considered the evidence as a whole but do you understand the evidence as a whole, perhaps not, because when you refer to my beliefs or morals your comments... are often untrue' - Please don't make general statements. Be specific - where I have misrepresented you on this subject? If I have I'll gladly retract anything I have said.

You may not think much of my education but it has instilled in me intellectual honesty (and the ability to formulate and evaluate arguments). This means that when I am shown to be wrong I will change my mind – so show me specifically where I am wrong. don't just assert that the world is worse and that all arguments have contrary arguments. Truth is not relative and not all arguments are equal.

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

Well, I got a reply. The reply totally failed to engage with any of the points I raised. Instead my JW relative went on about false religion, how religions are hypocritical, how there is a counter argument to everything (without actually offering a counter argument) and that the facts are just my 'opinion'. How it is unwise to comment on a subject without knowing all the facts etc.

Basically it was a string a platitudes and JW talking points, utterly absent of any cogent argument and totally failed to address any of the points I raised or answer any of my questions.

He also had a little dig at my 'education'. he said that some might consider his 'education' superior to mine. I have a degree in politics and history and I am failry widely read (I read a lot of philosophy, history, and science). He left school at 16 and only reads Watchtower publications.....

I find it so frustrating. Even when I totally destroy his arguments he can't cange his mind. He just reverts back to the comfort of his JW talking points (even if those talking points are the very same that I have just discredited). It annoys me that no matter well constructed my arguments and sound my evidence and logic - his mind cannot be changed....

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

@ prologos,

I think you are right, nuclear weapons have made open wars between superpowers but I don't think that is the only contributing factor to the relative peace since 1945.

globalisation and international trade mean that economies are much more integrated. So war between many countries now would be much like a business man murdering his customers - it doesn't make sense.

This was even one of the reasons behind the European Coal and steel Community in the 1950s - it was thought if European countries were trading parnets they would be less likely to go to war with each other. And it worked, Europe has never experienced such stability. The ECSC became the European Economic Community and is now the European Union. So I think increased global trade has had a stablising ieffect on the world.

Also, more recently modern communication technology is having an impact. It makes the propogandists job much harder. For example, It's hard for me to hate Iranians when I know many young Iranian men like SouthPark and videogames - just like me.

And of course the trend towards democracy in the Arab Spring has been facilitated by modern communication technology

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1914 - It was the end of the world as we knew it - things got much better!

by TheStumbler in

i was having a conversation with a jw relative recently i casually mentioned how much better the world is than a few centuries.

obviously the jw was incredulous.

the next day i found an email in my inbox listing a few qoutes from notable people saying how the world has gotten much worse since 1914 and that 1914 was a pivitol year.

TheStumbler

Thanks for the advice,

Here was my final reply:

You've just cherry picked a couple of moral issues that you think are getting worse and ignored all of the overall improvements that I mentioned. This is confirmation bias.

Even if we accept that some moral issues are worsening it doesnt necessarily mean that morality is declining overall. The positive development far outeigh the negatives.

If the most pressing moral issues facing the world today are homosexuals living together (something that causes no harm to anyone) and a high divorce rate then you've proven my point - the world has improved! Or do you really think homosexuals living together is a worse moral crime than slavery, torture, inhumane execution, religious oppression, no human rights, authoritarian governments, domestic violence against women and sexual inequality?

And you know, homosexuals still existed hundreds of years ago, they were just violently oppressed and improsened. Do you honestly think it was a good thing that societies were less tolerant? Would you rather society was less tolerant today?

And regarding marriage, there are more divorces today because getting divorced is easier. Whether or not this is a good thing is subject but personally I would rather divorce than be stuck in a loveless marraige. But again you are idealising the past. In history marriages were business arrangements more often than not, women had little say in who they married, women were expected to be subserviant to their husbands, and women could be legally beaten and raped by their husbands. Yes divorce rates are worse but this a very narrow baromoter by which to judge an entire civilisation.

Answer me this honestly, would you rather have lived in 1900? In 1900 at least one of your children would have probably died from what is today a preventable illness, you would have had poorer health and your life would have been much shorter (60 years), you would not have had free access to healthcare (what little there was), there was no welfare state, your wife would be more likely to die during child birth, your children would have only have a 75% of reaching childhood and would have a much lower life expectancy, your daughters could not divore their husbands even if they rape and beat them, your sons would have been at risk from military conscription and would be executed or improsoned if they refused, you would enjoy much less religious freedom, you would have a lower standard of living, less material wealth and fewer material comforts. Would you honestly rather live in 1900? Would all of this be a price worth paying to live in a world where h could not live with each other?

If you would then I guess this is something we cannot agree on.

Regarding less subjective measures of the world's progress, health, wealth, living standards and deaths due to war, the facts are clear - the world is improving.