Well, even if no one is 'converted' to the faith, there can still be growth, or enough to sustain the numbers, depending on how many have kids, and how many of those are indoctrinated or shy enough to go along with things and get baptised. Hell, I've never really bought the idea of a God, but got baptised because it was the done thing; home-schooled, etc., sheltered life back then.
For the organisation to shrink, more must leave (death, DFd, DAd, etc.) then are baptised.
The title of this thread suggests such.
It does seem that congregations are not growing in the Western world !!
There is veyr little increase in the numbers of congregations, and for each new one I rarely hear of, well, often two are merged somewhere. It seems that there isn't exactly shrinking of numbers, but just a maintaining of the current numbers.
This means no growth, but means the Watchtower isn't fading.
It's psychological control of people is strong - we all know! For some people, it's difficult to live without a God, etc.. they can't cope.
The fact remains though, that most growth takes place in the 3rd world, where education standards are generally lower, which means people are more vulnerable to manipulation/cults, etc.. Also, the foreign-language fields within first world countries do have some growth, but usually it's an increase for the country JWs move to, but a decrease for their last congregations in the country they came from.
Overall, for the small rise in 3rd world countries, which looks good in the overall growth figures of JWs (some pathetically small figure, but better than many churches!), 'the Truth' is very stagnant/static in the West.
It will avoid shrinking, if:
1) A JW kid get's baptised for each JW that dies/DF'd/DA'd/goes inactive. Most parents have two kids, so both kids have to get baptised to replace them, but about 60% of JW kids leave 'the Truth'. I suppose the one or two getting baptised helps. But when you go to an assembly of 10 congregations, and only see JW kids get baptised, well, it's obvious, few are getting converted, despite all that ministry that is supposedly happening (I wonder how many fake their hours/ministry - I have a number of times after the bubble burst) !!
2) DA'd and DF'd must not be too high. With JWs dying, doing inactive, or facing a JC quite often, I wonder how numbers stay as they are. Perhaps many DA'd and DF'd people return, but not that I have noticed.