By putting this up for discussion, I have learned things that I was initially unaware of. I've modified some of my underlying assumptions accordingly. At the end of the day the facts are few and far between, and speculation is all that's available. I wouldn't make the same opening statement as I did at the start of this thread now, because we've had some robust discussion about what little is known regarding this case.
Diogenesister, it was when you brought that up earlier that I realised that the whole Bottlegate thing was probably more heat than light. And then found out how long ago it was.