Posts by shepherdless

6

Australia 2021 Census: why did JW grow?

by shepherdless in

hi all, some may remember about 5 years ago, i did a few articles on what the australian census of 2016 said about jw and some other religions.

i have been meaning to add a bit on the 2021 census; the more detailed results have only been available in the last month or so.. an obvious question is why and how did jw numbers increase between 2016 and 2021. it is reasonable to assume the pandemic had a role.

the data doesn't fully answer that question, but it does show that a lot of over 35 y.o.

shepherdless

Thanks all for comments.

Smiddy: yes, that would be about right.

SBF:

I can't find any data for Unitarians. They don't seem to feature. Here is a quick self-explanatory table:

I included Bretheren because they concern me, because I come across them a bit.

Quick comments before I have to rush out the door:

Despite what the percentage growths suggest, I think SDA is doing better than JW, in that its demographics (ie no of young people) is far more in balance. JW was far better organised in dealing with the pandemic than most religions. There may also be an effect in recent numbers, that people are forgetting about what was revealed by an Aust Royal Commission of a few years ago. JW is doing better than most, for sure.

I will do a median age calc at some point when I get the time. I did a fertility calc for JW as a population, which gave a very low number, so I have to check it to see if I made a mistake.

6

Australia 2021 Census: why did JW grow?

by shepherdless in

hi all, some may remember about 5 years ago, i did a few articles on what the australian census of 2016 said about jw and some other religions.

i have been meaning to add a bit on the 2021 census; the more detailed results have only been available in the last month or so.. an obvious question is why and how did jw numbers increase between 2016 and 2021. it is reasonable to assume the pandemic had a role.

the data doesn't fully answer that question, but it does show that a lot of over 35 y.o.

shepherdless

Hi all, some may remember about 5 years ago, I did a few articles on what the Australian census of 2016 said about JW and some other religions. I have been meaning to add a bit on the 2021 census; the more detailed results have only been available in the last month or so.

An obvious question is why and how did JW numbers increase between 2016 and 2021. It is reasonable to assume the pandemic had a role. The data doesn't fully answer that question, but it does show that a lot of over 35 y.o.'s "returned to Jehovah". Data shows an increase in the 5 to 9, and 10 to 14 age groups (presumably dragged back by their parents), but generally younger age groups continued to decline.

Rather than go into detailed narrative, I will just repeat a few charts, similar to ones I did in the past. There is some narrative in my posts from 5 years ago, if it helps.

Firstly, the breakdown by age (in 5 year groups):

Looking across the chart horizontally is interesting, but looking diagonally can be more interesting, as, for example, those in the 15-19 age group in 2016 are in the 20-24 age group in 2021.

Another chart I did before was in relation to how old the members of the JW religion is becoming. The trend is continuing.

The population tree on the left represents the JW population in 2016. The population tree on the right is the equivalent in 2021.

Another chart I did before showed that JWs are becoming statistically so old that there are fewer female JW's under 40, which affects their ability to reproduce and indoctrinate young ones. Here is the update on the chart.

I think the chart speaks for itself.

When I get time, I hope to add some more details and data.

162

A new generation of anointed that will not pass away.

by Fisherman in

obviously, the older “ anointed ” from 1914 died.

and because they were anointed, they hopefully went to heaven.

in the first century though, a newer generation did not replace the old.

shepherdless

https://img.jehovahs-witness.com/image/f9cb4a50931ce51bfb892bbee972a589?s=580

9

Sir82

by Iamallcool in

jw
friends

i was wondering is sir82 still alive?

he has been po for many years.

he said that he would not leave the org unless his wife is pomo.

shepherdless

Similar to what Magnum stated. I would always read his posts because he seemed intelligent and thoughtful, and not just parroting something someone else said.

14

Results of Australia's 2021 Census- More Unbelievers than Believers

by fulltimestudent in

jw
friends

this abc (a national government owned media group) report states:.

"for the first time, fewer than half of australians identified as christian, though christianity remained the nation's most common religion (declared by 43.9 per cent of the population).. meanwhile, the number of australians who said they had no religion rose to 38.9 per cent (from 30.1 per cent in 2016).".

shepherdless

Just a brief update about extracting JW specific data from the census. In short, the relevant database does not appear to be available for interrogation, yet. The ABS does release data in stages. I will check every day or so. I am curious, myself.

14

Results of Australia's 2021 Census- More Unbelievers than Believers

by fulltimestudent in

jw
friends

this abc (a national government owned media group) report states:.

"for the first time, fewer than half of australians identified as christian, though christianity remained the nation's most common religion (declared by 43.9 per cent of the population).. meanwhile, the number of australians who said they had no religion rose to 38.9 per cent (from 30.1 per cent in 2016).".

shepherdless

When the 2016 Australian census came out, I did a few articles and charts on the JW specific data in the census. I will try to do that again over the next few days.

11

Jehovah’s witnesses and compulsory voting in Australia.

by Longlivetherenegades in

what do jehovah’s witnesses do during election period in australia?

i learnt voting is compulsory in australia and those who choose not to vote are fined.

do jehovah’s witnesses pay such fines?.

shepherdless

Ozziepost has answered the question, and I 100% agree. It seems this question comes up each time there is an election in Australia.

But, making voting mandatory is just as bad.

i disagree. Firstly, because it makes people at least think about how they are governed and who governs them. Secondly, because anyone who really doesn’t want to cast a ballot can just submit a blank ballot (and as someone who as both counted and scrutineered elections, I can confirm that a small % of votes at every election are blank). Thirdly, Australia is blessed with lots of relatively sensible middle of the road candidates at every election because compulsory voting means every politician has to try to appeal to a portion of the middle ground because under compulsory voting, a tactic of appealing to nut jobs and winding them up with fear/outrage etc, will never work.

33

Response to "The Flood is Real, Because ..."

by Simon in

i remember one of the flowchart responses to people questioning the biblical flood was something along the lines that "every culture has a flood story".. of course, nearly everywhere has flooded at one time or another and we know there are minor floods and then there are the 1-in-1000 year kind of weather event, that tend to get a mention (anyone from the uk will still talk about the summer of '76, and that's probably nothing in comparison to a decent flood).. but the inference is that the flood must be real, because every culture has a flood story.. the best response is "now do dragons".. because apparently, nearly every culture also has a dragon legend.. does it mean dragons exist?

some desperate jw may show their ignorance by suggesting that man lived at the same time as dinosaurs and they are what the stories were based on.

fun fact: stegosaurus was a fossil when t-rex was alive for longer than it's been since t-rex has been a fossil to us - we're talking old, and no overlap (ignore the map in the cover of the old green bible).. do jws still even bother trying to defend the cray-cray aesop-fable kind of ot beliefs?.

shepherdless

"every culture has a flood story"

I remember researching this point myself years ago. In a very loose general sense it is true, in that every culture experiences floods, so every culture has a word for “flood”, and many have a few stories about dealing with floods.

However, if you are looking for a culture that has a flood story that sounds anything remotely like the biblical flood story, there is only the one. That is the Sumerians, in Chapter Eleven of the Sumerian poem, Epic of Gilgamesh, where the god Enki tells Utnapishtim to build a boat to hold himself, his family, and “all the animals of the field”. What is then described is so similar that it is obvious one flood story if copied from the other. The Epic of Gilgamesh is much older than the Bible, and the flood story makes more sense in the context of that story than it does in the Bible, so it is pretty obvious that the Bible writers just picked up on an interesting snippet from the earlier literature and weaved it into the Bible.

So basically, no culture has a flood story remotely like the biblical flood myth, apart from the one Sumerian extract that the biblical writers plagiarised.

27

"Somebody" needs to do "Something!"

by Terry in

jw
friends

it's always unjustifiable for a country to attack another country without having first been attacked itself.. the nuremberg trials at the end of wwii made this clear.. more vividly too: following orders as a patriotic duty is never secondary to the pangs of your personal conscience.. .

worst of all, hypocrisy destroys credibility when you.

criticize other countries for doing what you have done.. .

shepherdless

I guess you are referring to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Probably not the Iraqi invasion of Iran in 1980 that was heavily supported by the US.

Hang on there, sbf. While I am in broad agreement with some of your points on the second Gulf War, I think you have gone a step too far in the above.

US didn’t support Saddam Hussein’s attempted invasion of Iran. USSR and a few others did, after it started. USA instead gave limited support to Iran; remember the “Iran Contra Affair”?

The Iraq Iran war (which has the dubious distinction of being the longest war of the 20th Century) was entirely the creation of an Arab mini-Putin. Not all wars are the fault of the USA. Let’s stick to blaming them for the ones that they should be blamed for.

27

"Somebody" needs to do "Something!"

by Terry in

jw
friends

it's always unjustifiable for a country to attack another country without having first been attacked itself.. the nuremberg trials at the end of wwii made this clear.. more vividly too: following orders as a patriotic duty is never secondary to the pangs of your personal conscience.. .

worst of all, hypocrisy destroys credibility when you.

criticize other countries for doing what you have done.. .

shepherdless

Putin has already said he'd nuke the West if the West gets involved - he's made that quite clear.

That is what he wants you to think.

Let’s look at things from the Russian perspective. Invasion has not turned into an “Anschluss” as hoped. Ukraine resistance is fierce. Plan A has failed. Plan B therefore is to defeat Ukraine military in battle. Numerically, Russia should win. Russia doing poorly so far in North and East but gaining ground in South.

From the Russian point of view, this is all still very winnable, particularly the most important goal of a land bridge to Crimea. The only thing that could rule that out at this stage is if the West clears the air of Russian support. That is why Russia is waiving the Nuclear war bogieman; to try to stop that happening.

There is still a lot of brinkmanship, and a lot of off-ramps around. Russia now has to win a ground war against a much smaller but more motivated opponent. If that is the way it stays, Russia probably rates its chances of success as reasonably good. If the West starts to get involved by, for example, enforcing a no fly zone or destroying theromobaric missiles or cluster weapons, then it becomes doubtful. This is probably why Russia has largely held back thus far, in deploying mass destruction weapons. In the meantime, USA is flying B52’s along Ukraine’s border, probably containing all the ordinance needed to wipe out that convoy north of Kyiv.

As a result, I think we will continue to see more of the status quo. Ukraine may or may not survive, but both Russia and the West will avoid stepping over certain red lines.

Given the above, if you were in Putin’s position, would you start nuclear war now, and almost certainly be incinerated? No, you would play it out, and see what happens.