RunningMan

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Posts by RunningMan

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  7

  Statistical projection for Canada/2002

  by RunningMan in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  well, we are nearing the half way point in the service year.

  although it is still early, we may be able to get an initial projection of this years service results for canada.. publishers for this year and last are as follows:.

  sep 106131 105056. oct 107971 108076. nov 107668 108499. dec 108331 106595. jan 108799 107097. avg 107780 107065 increase of +0.7%.

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  RunningMan

  I thought about calculating the number of 15 minute publishers by watching the change in average hours. However, their impact on hours is not statistically significant.

  I heard somewhere that tests of the 15 minute rule resulted in a 1.6% increase in publisher count (I can't remember the source). That's about 1 or 2 per congregation, which seems reasonable. A 1.6% increase in total publisher count, with virtually no corresponding increase in hours, results in lower hours per publisher of only 0.14 hours - a difference which is not even noticable, and cannot be distinguished from other fluctuations.

  On the point of the reports being collected by the BS conductor (I like that phrase), in my congregation, the secretary always used to collect them himself. At least once last year my bogus 4 hours got missed. That seems unlikely under the new regime. Even a tiny increase in reporting accuracy will impact these figures.

  The most accurate way to assess the impact of the changes is to wait until next year, and then compare equivalent year over year data.
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  7

  Statistical projection for Canada/2002

  by RunningMan in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  well, we are nearing the half way point in the service year.

  although it is still early, we may be able to get an initial projection of this years service results for canada.. publishers for this year and last are as follows:.

  sep 106131 105056. oct 107971 108076. nov 107668 108499. dec 108331 106595. jan 108799 107097. avg 107780 107065 increase of +0.7%.

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  RunningMan

  Well, we are nearing the half way point in the service year. Although it is still early, we may be able to get an initial projection of this year’s service results for Canada.

  Publishers for this year and last are as follows:

  Sep 106131 105056
  Oct 107971 108076
  Nov 107668 108499
  Dec 108331 106595
  Jan 108799 107097

  Avg 107780 107065 Increase of +0.7%

  At this early stage, it looks like a modest increase is in the works. However, if you realize that the counting threshold has dropped to 15 minutes per month, and the enforcement has improved by transferring this job to the book study conductor, then the results are not as good. It is entirely possible that this seeming increase (caused by counting technique changes) is actually masking a decrease. Consider the number of conversions:

  Baptisms (this year/last year):

  Sep 149 161
  Oct 103 157
  Nov 226 131
  Dec 81 132
  Jan 59 54

  Total 618 635 Decrease of 17

  Last year, baptisms hit a low of 2030. That was the lowest year since baptisms began being reported. Back in 1969, 3621 baptisms were reported, and that was based on a total publisher count of only 43265. Only a few short years ago, the baptism count was over 5000.

  In order to maintain their size, the organization needs to baptize at least 2500 per year (1400 for mortality, and 1100 for dissention).

  So, although the 2002 service year results may show a small increase, in reality, the indifference is continuing unchanged.
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  12

  "If Only Saul Would Die"

  by Farkel in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  poor little dubbies.

  theyre so optimistic.

  if only the current gb would just die off, everything will get better, they think.

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  RunningMan

  Good points. The problems affecting the Society go way beyond the ability of any current or potential leader.

  I believe that their only hope (and a slim one at that) is for control to be siezed by a single visionary, who would totally reform the organization. However, under the current system of governing by committee, control is held by company men who are so stupid that they actually believe their own nonsense. Their system does not groom persons with the right leadership qualities, and they are insulated from outside takeover.

  By the way, on the subject of the Biblical Saul's death, did you realize that Saul actually died three times? Consider:

  1 Samuel 31:4 - “Therefore, Saul took his own sword and fell upon it.” This is a pretty straight forward, definitive statement of how Saul died.

  In 2 Samuel 21:12, we find another definitive statement regarding Saul’s death: “David went and took the bones of Saul, and the bones of his son Jonathan from the men of Jabesh-Gilead, who had stolen them from the public square of Beth-Shan, where the Philistines had hanged them, on the day the Philistines killed Saul on Gilboa.”

  So,we now find that Saul did not commit suicide after all, but rather, was killed by the Philistines.

  But, we’re not done, yet. In 1 Chronicles, chapter 10, another person takes credit for Saul’s death, and we have to assume that this one isn’t lying. Verses 13 and 14: “So Saul died for his unfaithfulness... Therefore, the Lord slew him, and turned the kingdom over to David, the son of Jesse.”

  So, Saul committed suicide, was killed in war, and was executed by God. I guess the Bible writers wanted him dead so badly that they couldn't stop at one.
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  21

  Service Report UK Jan2002

  by dmouse in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  bad news for the uk, trend is up for publishers.

  looks like the death of the wbts has been exaggerated.

  shame..

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  RunningMan

  Expat: Do you happen to have the baptisms for January? I keep track, just to keep the society honest. And, I don't feel like going to a meeting this month.

  Oh, and the other "publisher-enhancer" is the change in the collection mechanism. The reports are now collected by the Book Study conductor. Since he has fewer people to look after, he can hound them for their time more effectively.

  The numbers will take a small jump this month, but unless the baptisms improve, the malaise will set in again next year.
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  13

  Did anyone see the Discovery Channel special last?

  by crownboy in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw it at my cousin's house last night, it was very interesting.

  it traced the lineage of man back to the "real eve", who lived somewhere in africa about 150,000 years ago.

  they were able to make this determination by reading the "mitocondrial dna" of humans; looking for mutations, etc.

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  RunningMan

  I checked the schedule last night. The show about the rivers of Eden was called "In Search of Eden", which topped off a three hour crap fest on the Learning Channel. Sorry about any confusion - similar subject, same time, one channel down.
• 
  13

  Did anyone see the Discovery Channel special last?

  by crownboy in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i saw it at my cousin's house last night, it was very interesting.

  it traced the lineage of man back to the "real eve", who lived somewhere in africa about 150,000 years ago.

  they were able to make this determination by reading the "mitocondrial dna" of humans; looking for mutations, etc.

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  RunningMan

  I saw part of the program - the part that dealt with the attempt to pinpoint the location of Eden based on the four rivers mentioned in Genesis. It seemed to have completely forgotten that, according to the Bible story, the pre-flood river system would have been completely different from today. In fact, with no rainfall, runoff, or glacial melting, why would there have been rivers at all?

  Prior to the show, there was a program that discussed (apparently seriously) the idea that perhaps Ezekiel had seen a UFO.

  To the extent that it highlighted our genetic similarities and the potential for descending from a single set of ancestors, it was probably somewhat accurate. Unfortunately, I find that this network (in Canada I believe it was on the Learning Channel) tends to court viewers through the use of game shows, home redecorating, and pseudo-scientific piffle. It is a great disappointment to me. It should be renamed The Unlearning Channel.
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  22

  What is the most unBiblical teaching of the JWs?

  by jerome in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  it has been said that the jws hold to many beliefs that are unnsupported scripturally and inforce many 'unwritten' rules which they refer to as 'principles'.. i would like to start off the thread with what i think is the most important unbiblical teaching that they need to promote inorder to exist.. the watchtower teaches that "a prophet is able to make mistakes while he is speaking for god and still be considered as true.

  mind you that these are not slips of the tounge but doctrines and predictions that have been promoted for years and have only been modified only after the watchtower had no choice but to change them.. this in my opinion is the most unscriptural teaching that the watchtower promotes.

  if it werent for this teaching then the watchtower would most definately have to be marked as a false prophet!

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  RunningMan

  There is no doubt that you guys have picked out the biggies: armageddon predictions, the 144000, the faithful and discreet slave, and others.

  I would like to add their entire chronological system. They use simple minded numerology to place our century into a warped system of time periods. This is pure distortion and foolery.

  They also apply bible events to themselves, even when there is no reason to think that a modern application was meant, and when the comparison works extremely poorly. Take for example, the application of the bowls of God's anger being applied to seven insignificant JW conventions in the 1920's.

  Truly this is a religion that looks good only to people who have never read a book.
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  16

  Public Talks

  by radar in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  public talks .

  here is a list of talks that was spoon fed to the congregation in 1998.. for some reason there was no talk number 100 back then.. but can you spot which talk that is missing from the list, the one that should have never been missing from the list for jws?

  it is still not on the list even today.. and do you know why?

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  RunningMan

  Oh, the memories. I gave #36: Is this life all there is?
  and #122: Global peace, from what source.

  I still have the outlines and my notes. I hope I didn't convert anyone, but there's not much chance of that. No members of the "public" ever showed up at our "public" talks.
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  39

  Was Eve really Adam's first woman?

  by Shimmer in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  i checked out this really cool book from the library called don't know much about the bible.

  it talks about a hebrew legend recorded in the medieval alphabet of ben sira regarding a lilith who was adam's first wife, who preceded eve.

  in this version, lilith is created from the earth, as adam was.

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  RunningMan

  'Lucky for him I'm a combination of both and lucky for me, he's a combination of "The guy you date and the guy you marry".'

  I hate to disappoint you, Shimmer, but that's what everyone tells their spouse.
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  25

  JW internet warnings

  by larc in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  folks,.

  don't they know how dumb their advice turns out to be?

  you tell a teenager not to go to the internet, and that is the first thing they will do.

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  RunningMan

  I, too, have heard Witnesses say that the internet is Satan's network, and that everything on it, without exception is evil, vile, and Satanic. (These were mostly older people who had never used it) I then informed them that the Society had an official web site. They were stunned.

  Banning the internet is the second stupidest thing they could do. They are making it irresistable to anyone with a mind. Besides, newly interested ones are not aware of the ban, and so they go to the internet and find nothing but negative sites, since the pro-JW sites have all been shut down.

  The stupidest thing they can do is ban the internet, and then put up their own site. The hypocrisy is obvious to everyone. It's like Hugh Heffner denouncing pornography.