Hi Orphancrow,
Now either mass conversions occurred or the coast was now clear for inactive witnesses to return to the fold. Which is more plausible?Both are plausible. I think both reasons account for the increase. I don't see why it has to be one or the other.
Let me clarify why I think the bulk of the increase is due to a return of previously inactive JW's.
I have to admit that there are reports of Nazi soldiers becoming JW's. However I will also state that because those conversions were viewed as significant victories for the Watchtower those instances have been well reported. Could a person argue that the JW conduct and philosophy was so compelling that thousands of soldiers converted after the war? I guess you could perhaps make a case for a few hundred but even that figure would be quite optimistic.
So why would I submit that something else is happening between 1947 and 48?
I think the 1933 number of 22 000 is reasonable (based on the memorial figures and the reported adherents). Erich Frost reports the 1936 numbers. He may even have been inflating the actual numbers but he only gets to 7600.
So between 1935-45 approximately 14 400 witnesses evaporate. These are witnesses who support Paul Balzereits conciliatory tone and use the 1933 letter from overseer Martin Harbeck as argument to follow the Nazi ban. They still accept the theology though. After 1936 those inactive witnesses either have to fall in with the Nazi state or go to jail. The concentration camp numbers support that they remain inactive.
In 1946 the first numbers to emerge state that there are over 11 000 Witnesses in Germany. This aligns with the concentration camp numbers as many cannot return to their lands of origin yet. In 1947 the Witnesses increase to over 15 000. This can be explained by radio broadcasts that the witnesses are allowed to make which may convert many and call many who are inactive.
In 1947 Germany starts to return to some measure of civil society. Before that military law is still prime. In 1947 the first commercial airlines begin to operate where before only military aircraft are allowed. Men like Hoss who ran Auschwitz are prosecuted and executed which is a major indicator that a new free society will be born. Also in 1947 Knorr and Covington visit Germany. Now if you adhered to the Watchtower dogma in the 1930's but became inactive, these new unfolding events would allow you to return in safety. There were even reports that some camp survivors did not want people to attend JW meetings who had not suffered in the camps. The Watchtower reported that the accounts were false and on the contrary they made special efforts to welcome people back (well that's according to the Watchtower).
So my argument rests on the ideas that although there were converts from the military that it would not account for the massive increase in 47 to 48. Most probably the political climate allowed the inactive to become active again.
Now I can argue your point of view as well. Lets assume that of the 14 400 witnesses that adhere to the Nazi ban a significant percentage are male and between 18 and 45 years old. They are conscripted and join the military. After the war they now return to civil society and their former religion. It would not look good for the Tower to report that former witnesses who had joined the military are now back in the fold. This would not make for good watchtower or awake! material. What does make good reading is former SS camp soldiers converting because of the sterling example they saw within witness conduct etc.
So I could see your point of view, but only sort of. I may be wrong about my conclusions because I was not physically there to see the events for myself, however I think they are reasonably based on the figures and facts as I see them. Perhaps you have some other evidence to change my mind?