Saintbertholdt

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Posts by Saintbertholdt

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  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi John,

  "The little one himself will become a thousand, and the small one a mighty nation. I myself, Jehovah,shall speed it up in its own time."

  Perhaps if they have a speed up of the acceleration :)
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  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

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  Saintbertholdt

  So what happens if the Watchtower has sterling growth over the next four decades?
  Some reasons why this could happen:

  1. The USA recedes into a long recession lasting on and off for many decades. This is because if the US keeps on borrowing money it will double its debt in the next decade from $17 Trillion to about $30 Trillion. I use the name 'Long Recession' in remembrance of the long depression in the US in the late 1800's. Also if the USA sneezes the World catches the cold.

  The Watchtower grows best in times of distress so a prolonged recession would certainly bolster their numbers.

  2. China's publisher numbers are currently an unknown quantity. If the Chinese became more legislatively open in the coming decades the Watchtower could conceivable become a legal entity which could bolster the organizations growth significantly, hence the New World Scenario title.

  Under this scenario I would project that the average PpPpD Ratio could double. This ratio is slightly better than the 1980 to 1990 ratio (which was the best) and is projected for four decades. The current PpPpD ratio is lower for 2010 to 2020 as the 2015 numbers are giving a good projection what the 2020 numbers will be and therefore is therefore fixed. Anyway so what happens then?

  2. The 'New World' scenario

  
  

  Notes: Peak publisher numbers in 2050 end up at 13.5 million. This is still quite bland. The spin of the Watchtower would want us to believe that growth is explosive. Even under double average growth acceleration the numbers are still sort of a fizzle. By 2050 human population numbers are seemingly going to decline, so that's the end of explosive growth anyway. What the Watchtower needs is another decade to give them the boost they needed. This is where the 2010-2020 decade comes in and also the next scenario.
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  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

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  2. 
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  Saintbertholdt

  What are those reasons?

  I'm doing the write-up now :)
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  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

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  2. 
  3. 
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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi Flash,

  The pessimist projection will be the one you're looking for then. The PpPpD Ratio keeps on declining at the current rate so this could also be a conceivable scenario as well.

  I first want to give the new world and lost world projections though because there's aserious opportunity that has seemingly been lost which will affect their future growth numbers negatively.
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  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi there all,

  I've been doing some Watchtower membership growth projections. The best, worst and most lightly future scenarios. I've used the worlds population as a barometer of future Watchtower growth. The reason is because it has always intrigued me that the during the 90's and 2000's the growth of the organization always seemed to mirror world population growth. I say 'it seemed' because preaching activity does have a positive impact on growth numbers, however that impact has been waning over the decades. This has been observed by many people and I thought that the time had come to quantify this and project these changes into the future to get an idea of whats going to happen to the Watchtower organization.

  Now there are many projections one can make of possible scenarios and I've done five. First let me explain how I did these projections. (After all, my prognostications should have some weak basis :))

  Some technical terms: People per Publisher (The amount of Humans beings per active Watchtower publisher)

  PpP examples:

  In 1950 there were 7779 people on earth for every publisher
  In 1960 there were 3570 people on earth for every publisher and
  In 1970 there were 2677 people on earth for every publisher

  So as one can see over the decades there has been a proportional increase publisher numbers outstripping human population growth. This looks mighty impressive, that is until you look at the rate of change of PpP over the decades.

  For example:

  PpP per Decade (PpPpD)

  1960 PpP - 1950 PpP = -4209
  1970 PpP - 1960 PpP = -893

  Over the decades the rate at which publisher growth numbers have been proportionally outstripping the world population growth numbers have been declining. Between 2000 and 2010 the number is down to -104. What this means it that it seems as if the Watchtower will eventually grow at the rate of human population growth. In this specific instance I hypothesize that the correlation is valid.

  To get even more technical one can look at the change of this change (PpPpD) as well. This is the deceleration of the proportional rate and can be expressed as a ratio: The PpPpD Ratio. I use this ratio for my projections.

  I also use world population projections as the second variable in the calculations. The US census Bureau does the same sort of thing I am doing and they can reasonably predict the future of the worlds population. The interesting thing is that World Population control seems to be working quite well and it would seem that after 2050 the World's population is actually going to decline from a peak of about 9.5 Billion individuals.

  Now I'm writing all this technical Gobbledygook to give my projections some credence :) After all its just best guess, but its still a lot of fun :)

  The first chart is the how things are chart. The Reality or Facts chart. It has one projection from 2010 until 2020. This is in line with the 2015 numbers and so this projection seems most probable.

  Footnote: In the charts below the 'Average number of publishers' statistic is used because Peak publisher numbers are just used by the Watchtower for the 'feel good' effect. The average number of publishers over the period of a year is more accurate and representative.

  
  THE FACTS CHART
  

  
  

  Note: In 2020 the monthly average publishers will be at about 8.48 million

  Next comes the best guess chart. The Most Probable growth chart. I use the average PpPpD Ratio calculated over the past 6 decades for the projections.

  
  

  1. The Most Probable and Reasonable Scenario

  
  

  Notes: By 2050 the average number of publishers is 11.06 million.

  Actually its not that great if you think about it. It means that the Watchtower will still remain somewhat of a fringe organization overall.

  I have four other projections:

  2. The New World Projection (What if the Watchtower had fantastic growth for the next four decades. There are some reasons why this could conceivably happen. The finding is rather surprising.)
  3. The Lost World Projection (The most startling finding is that the Watchtower has actually dropped the ball during this past decade.)
  4. The pessimist Projection (What if the PpPpD Ratio keeps on declining at the current rate. What happens then?)
  5. The Watchtower Armageddon Projection (What if the Watchtower gets hammered from all sides?)

  So wanna see the other projections?

  Also any comments or suggestions?
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  24

  BURNING AMBITION by Jehovah's Witness YOUTH: "I want to clean toilets in Bethel for the rest of my life."

  by TerryWalstrom in

  1. jw
  2. experiences

  as i have written previously, i crashed a discussion between a young j-dub and his baptist workmate who were having.

  a religious debate outside starbucks.

  this was months ago.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi TerryWalstrom,

  My young witness friend is, of course, torn by his delicate status of being under age in an all Jehovah's Witness family. He wants to go to college, but he's being hard-pressed to Pioneer. He's 'going-along-to-get-along' for now, however much it is disturbing him internally.

  Well if he's not too particular, he could study law. The Watchtower has never turned down a lawyer yet, and he could use that as the reason for his studies. He would not be lying either because he'd would be extremely valuable to the organization, even the HQ or a Bethel. And he would have a professional qualification to boot.
  
  
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  23

  Facing up to the reality of the world

  by purrpurr in

  1. jw
  2. friends

  since becoming atheist i have been paying more attention to world events and issues.

  this is giving me some worry's when i see what's going on.

  as a jw i could just dismiss stuff saying "armageddon is coming, jehovah will look after us" etc etc now of course i can't do that.

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  Saintbertholdt

  How do any of you fellow atheists cope with it?

  I don't consciously think about atheism that often any more. Its just automatically integrated into my thinking. I would say since becoming an atheist I consider things (news, science, evolution) much more. I also try to make my life worthwhile. Not hedonistically worthwhile, but that it in the end it may actually mean something to my fellow human beings. You know, legacy.

  
  
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  25

  So much "growth"! JW Land double sided coin

  by thedepressedsoul in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i'm finding it more and more funny how every wt article for the public or congregation, including jw broadcast talks about all this "growth" and how fast jehovha's organization is speeding up!

  yet everything behind closed doors, insider information, elder letters and sales paint a very different picture.

  i have news for you gb members!

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi there all,

  Here's a graph I did of the World Population growth versus the Average Jehovah's Witness publishers growth per decade. Since 1980 the population growth versus publishers is almost linear. There is still a slight acceleration but that rate itself it slowing. So based upon that general rate of acceleration slowdown I did some projections. This is also based upon the expected rate of growth for the earths population in the 21st century as estimated by the US census bureau.

  Greetings

  SB

  
  
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  3

  Another JW holocaust fund post

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  the expenditure accounted for 6% of the total funds available over the period of the program*..

  total funds available for recipients: $856 485.

  total recipients benefited: 1876.

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi there,

  Yesterday a thread was started about the fact that the Watchtower wanted funds allocated to the organization itself for remembrance work. Thus far I cannot determine that this ever happened but what is known is that funds were disbursed to JW holocaust survivors in Central, Eastern Europe as well as Russia.

  Here are some notes on the organization which the Watchtower started for this purpose.

  The information below comes from a project I am working on:

  
  

  Appendix D: Some notes on the JWHESF tax reporting from 2001-2005

  In 1995, fifty years after the end of World War II, the World Jewish Congress started a massive class action lawsuit against Swiss banks regarding bank accounts that had been indefinitely held since the end of the war. In November 2000 a settlement plan was announced under which 1.25 billion dollars would be distributed to surviving holocaust victims. The funds would be controlled and dispersed by the Jewish Banking Trust. Jehovah's Witnesses were identified as possible recipients and eventually 1876 witnesses were assisted through the Humanitarian Support Program (HSP) which was tasked with distributing the funds and needed services. The HSP preferred assisting the recipients with food aid, medical assistance, winter assistance and lastly emergency financial assistance. The Watchtower organization started a fund called the Jehovah's Witness Holocaust-Era Survivor Fund (JWHESF) to handle the final distribution to their recipients and the HSP subsequently identified the JWHESF as a distribution partner. Between 2001 and 2005 the funds were allocated and disbursed.
  

  The 2006 Humanitarian Support Program report indicated that “The JWHESF [Jehovah's Witness Holocaust-Era Survivor Fund] relied on its network of local bethels (church centres) and volunteers for the implementation of two consecutive projects over a three-year period...The programme benefited from substantial input by Jehovah’s Witness community members that was not charged to the programme. The efforts of these 'volunteers' helped keep administrative project costs among the lowest in [the] HSP. Nevertheless, the lack of administrative funds allocated by [the] IOM’s partner to its country teams also contributed to making the regularity of their work, reporting and follow-up with beneficiaries problematic.”

  So what the above paragraph means is that the ordinary witnesses in the recipient countries bore most of the expenses too keep costs as low as possible and to therefore maximize the benefits to the recipients. The volunteers gathered the names and details of the survivors in their area and then sent it to their countries branch office (Bethels) where the information would be compiled. These witness volunteers also did the in person and telephone follow ups with the recipients and thereafter the reporting. The Humanitarian Support Program (HSP) was very particular in this regard in that it would not release the next round of funds to any of its partners unless the reporting was in order.

  As quoted earlier the HSP pointed out one specific area that could have been improved upon and that was that the JWHESF denied any funds to the country teams. This meant telephone calls and travel expenditure was defrayed to the individual witness volunteers which made the follow-ups dependent upon each individuals personal budget. It therefore made reporting irregular. The organization itself did not have this problem and substantially charged general administrative expenditure for its own volunteers in the USA to maintain efficiency. The expenditure accounted for 6% of the total funds available over the period of the program*.

  * 990 forms for the Tax years 2001 to 2005 for Jehovah's Witness Holocaust-Era Survivors Fund, Inc. The JWHESF personnel did not receive any salaries for their work except for some professional fees that were charged. Charges were made for materials and equipment, internet usage, telephone, travel, postage etc. The volunteer witnesses did not have the opportunity to recoup their expenditures such as travel costs, phone bills and postage.

  The cost breakdown between 2001 and 2005 for the JWHESF is as follows:

  Total funds received: $911 356

  General Administrative costs: $54 871 (6% of total funds received)

  Total funds available for recipients: $856 485

  Total recipients benefited: 1876

  Average amount per recipient received: Approximately $456

  The only expenditure charged by the JWHESF program that seems out of the ordinary occurred in the last year of HSP fund distribution in 2005. The JWHESF indicated in its accomplishments that its functions were that recipients were identified and that "Funds were disbursed." The identification was done through the Branch offices and volunteers, compiled and forwarded to the JWHESF at no cost. The JWHESF then dispersed the funds in blocks to the Bethel Branch office accounts in the various recipient countries where the funds would have been allocated according to each individuals needs. As shown in the HSP report the Branch Offices and volunteers could not charge any costs to JWHESF for the final distribution to the recipients.

  So it comes as a surprise that in 2005 the JWHESF charges $16 141 for postage and shipping. Between 2001 and 2004 postage and shipping only accounted for $635. The bulk of the funds ($782 546) were received and disbursed during that period. In 2005 $128 810 was received and disbursed using the same previous methods but now $16 141 was spent on postage and shipping.

  It could not have been fund dispersal (the posting of cheques) directly to the recipients as there is no indication that any methodology changed in 2005. Also the HSP preferred assisting recipients directly through items such as food, winter and medical assistance and as previously stated any associated costs were left to the Branch offices and volunteers. Only 12.5% of recipients received direct emergency financial support.

  The $16 141 printing and shipping expenditure could not have been the costs involved in sending a final comprehensive report to each recipient via post seeing as there was no printing costs indicated in the 2005 tax return. In previous years printing costs had been indicated so it was not a cost the organization would defray. It is unclear why postage and packaging costs had increased so significantly in 2005.

  Another small matter of interest is that in the 2003 tax report the following question was asked: “80a Is the organization related (other than by association with a statewide or nationwide organization) through common membership, governing bodies, trustees, officers, etc. to any other exempt or nonexempt organization?”

  On the form the response was indicated as No. If it was answered Yes the organizations that these individuals were connected with had to be indicated. In the 2003 list of officers of the organization the following names appear: James Pelechia, Daniel Bland, Max Custer anc Jolene Chu. Daniel Bland is a director of the Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society of Pennsylvania. James Pelechia was the associate editor of Watch Tower publications and director of public affairs. Max Custer and Jolene Chu are both on the Watchtower corporations legal team. Over the years all other individuals listed as representatives of the JWHESF have ties to Watchtower related organizations. It is unclear why they omit to state these connections when it is actually quite plainly stated in the name of the organization itself. Possibly a simple oversight.

  The last item discussed is also just an interesting curiosity. In the 2004 JWHESF tax report, the Swiss Vogel foundation contributed $49 900 for a specific project to be carried out by the Jehovah's Witness Holocaust Era Survivors Fund. The Vogel foundation was Alfred Vogel's who was already diseased by 2004 but which continued his legacy. Since the 1930's Vogel was a Naturopath and Phytologist. He had started a company called Bioforce AG which until today still produces Naturopathic remedies and which are distributed around the world, including the USA. The most well known is a cold remedy called Echinaforce.

  Vogel was also a Jehovah's Witness and a personal source who knew him informed me that he also claimed to be part of the “anointed” group of Jehovah's Witnesses. Thus Vogel and his legacy foundation would have had very personal reasons to contribute to the JWHESF fund. Seeing as the nature of the assistance to the recipients was mostly material in nature, it could be speculated that the Vogel Foundation wanted to assist the elderly recipients through the provision of Naturopathic remedies. The project (whatever it may have entailed) was not initiated by the JWHESF and so the Vogel foundation asked for the funds to be returned.

  Sources:

  990 form reports for organizations exempt from income tax for the Jehovah's Witness Holocaust-Era Survivors Fund for the years 2001,2002,2003,2004,2005

  The 2006 Final Report on Assistance to Needy, Elderly compiled by the Humanitarian Support Program which is part of the International Organization for Migration under the subsection Jehovah's Witness Survivors

  Essay: Alfred Vogel (1902–1996) as an example of the development of non-physician naturopathy – especially phytotherapy – in Switzerland by Jörg Melzer, Christian Kleemann, Reinhard Saller - Institute of Complementary Medicine, Dept. of Internal Medicine, University Hospital Zurich, Switzerland
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  28

  Abusing the power of tears. Yet another sign of desperation

  by StarTrekAngel in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  so i was seating at the meeting this past sunday.

  the latest wt article to be studied speaks of "using our imagination" to think about the blessings of the kingdom.

  the whole study was centered around how we can, and should, spent time visualizing ourselves in the new world, working along with our brothers.

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  Saintbertholdt

  1. Congregation tithing

  2. Appealing to emotions

  3. Video presentations galore

  All one needs now are some ol' time revival healings and the transformation will be complete.

  PRAISE JESUS!