Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt 27 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi there all,

  I've been doing some Watchtower membership growth projections. The best, worst and most lightly future scenarios. I've used the worlds population as a barometer of future Watchtower growth. The reason is because it has always intrigued me that the during the 90's and 2000's the growth of the organization always seemed to mirror world population growth. I say 'it seemed' because preaching activity does have a positive impact on growth numbers, however that impact has been waning over the decades. This has been observed by many people and I thought that the time had come to quantify this and project these changes into the future to get an idea of whats going to happen to the Watchtower organization.

  Now there are many projections one can make of possible scenarios and I've done five. First let me explain how I did these projections. (After all, my prognostications should have some weak basis :))

  Some technical terms: People per Publisher (The amount of Humans beings per active Watchtower publisher)

  PpP examples:

  In 1950 there were 7779 people on earth for every publisher
  In 1960 there were 3570 people on earth for every publisher and
  In 1970 there were 2677 people on earth for every publisher

  So as one can see over the decades there has been a proportional increase publisher numbers outstripping human population growth. This looks mighty impressive, that is until you look at the rate of change of PpP over the decades.

  For example:

  PpP per Decade (PpPpD)

  1960 PpP - 1950 PpP = -4209
  1970 PpP - 1960 PpP = -893

  Over the decades the rate at which publisher growth numbers have been proportionally outstripping the world population growth numbers have been declining. Between 2000 and 2010 the number is down to -104. What this means it that it seems as if the Watchtower will eventually grow at the rate of human population growth. In this specific instance I hypothesize that the correlation is valid.

  To get even more technical one can look at the change of this change (PpPpD) as well. This is the deceleration of the proportional rate and can be expressed as a ratio: The PpPpD Ratio. I use this ratio for my projections.

  I also use world population projections as the second variable in the calculations. The US census Bureau does the same sort of thing I am doing and they can reasonably predict the future of the worlds population. The interesting thing is that World Population control seems to be working quite well and it would seem that after 2050 the World's population is actually going to decline from a peak of about 9.5 Billion individuals.

  Now I'm writing all this technical Gobbledygook to give my projections some credence :) After all its just best guess, but its still a lot of fun :)

  The first chart is the how things are chart. The Reality or Facts chart. It has one projection from 2010 until 2020. This is in line with the 2015 numbers and so this projection seems most probable.

  Footnote: In the charts below the 'Average number of publishers' statistic is used because Peak publisher numbers are just used by the Watchtower for the 'feel good' effect. The average number of publishers over the period of a year is more accurate and representative.

  
  THE FACTS CHART
  

  
  

  Note: In 2020 the monthly average publishers will be at about 8.48 million

  Next comes the best guess chart. The Most Probable growth chart. I use the average PpPpD Ratio calculated over the past 6 decades for the projections.

  
  

  1. The Most Probable and Reasonable Scenario

  
  

  Notes: By 2050 the average number of publishers is 11.06 million.

  Actually its not that great if you think about it. It means that the Watchtower will still remain somewhat of a fringe organization overall.

  I have four other projections:

  2. The New World Projection (What if the Watchtower had fantastic growth for the next four decades. There are some reasons why this could conceivably happen. The finding is rather surprising.)
  3. The Lost World Projection (The most startling finding is that the Watchtower has actually dropped the ball during this past decade.)
  4. The pessimist Projection (What if the PpPpD Ratio keeps on declining at the current rate. What happens then?)
  5. The Watchtower Armageddon Projection (What if the Watchtower gets hammered from all sides?)

  So wanna see the other projections?

  Also any comments or suggestions?
• 

  Splash

  What great fun, playing with numbers!

  My only observation is that the age contour of current jw's is not linear.

  I think there are many more older ones than younger ones, and while the nett intake remains low, those exiting (through death) will increase.
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  Hi Flash,

  The pessimist projection will be the one you're looking for then. The PpPpD Ratio keeps on declining at the current rate so this could also be a conceivable scenario as well.

  I first want to give the new world and lost world projections though because there's aserious opportunity that has seemingly been lost which will affect their future growth numbers negatively.
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  steve2

  Good work and I like the way you are putting it out in 'draft' form so to speak. The other unknown factor is the extent to which the larger growth in so-called "Third World" countries and in technologically-advanced Asian countries will continue compared to "Western" countries - as it is this "extra" growth that is leading the annual increases in average publisher numbers.

  Also, it is difficult to predict what ongoing impact natural and manmade disasters in the west will have on JW growth - we know there is typically an increase of religiosity in countries following negative events.

  But, by and large, I agree with the trends you take note of. The heyday of JW growth in the West is over - the time when it was clear that the rate of new converts comnig into the organization outstripped the numbers born-in the organization.
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  John Aquila

  The New World Projection (What if the Watchtower had fantastic growth for the next four decades. There are some reasons why this could conceivably happen.

  What are those reasons?
  
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  What are those reasons?

  I'm doing the write-up now :)
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  DesirousOfChange

  Another 9/11 incident that leads to long term terrorism events.

  Doc
  
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  StrongHaiku

  Saintbertholdt - The New World Projection (What if the Watchtower had fantastic growth for the next four decades. There are some reasons why this could conceivably happen...I'm doing the write-up now :)

  Intriguing post...Can't wait to see what you come up with.

  On a side note: The only thing that comes to my mind that could possibly give the Organization a "fantastic growth for the next four decades" would be for them so set a date for the GT/Armageddon. Historically, that is the only thing I have seen that has almost guaranteed crazy growth.

  
  
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  Saintbertholdt

  So what happens if the Watchtower has sterling growth over the next four decades?
  Some reasons why this could happen:

  1. The USA recedes into a long recession lasting on and off for many decades. This is because if the US keeps on borrowing money it will double its debt in the next decade from $17 Trillion to about $30 Trillion. I use the name 'Long Recession' in remembrance of the long depression in the US in the late 1800's. Also if the USA sneezes the World catches the cold.

  The Watchtower grows best in times of distress so a prolonged recession would certainly bolster their numbers.

  2. China's publisher numbers are currently an unknown quantity. If the Chinese became more legislatively open in the coming decades the Watchtower could conceivable become a legal entity which could bolster the organizations growth significantly, hence the New World Scenario title.

  Under this scenario I would project that the average PpPpD Ratio could double. This ratio is slightly better than the 1980 to 1990 ratio (which was the best) and is projected for four decades. The current PpPpD ratio is lower for 2010 to 2020 as the 2015 numbers are giving a good projection what the 2020 numbers will be and therefore is therefore fixed. Anyway so what happens then?

  2. The 'New World' scenario

  
  

  Notes: Peak publisher numbers in 2050 end up at 13.5 million. This is still quite bland. The spin of the Watchtower would want us to believe that growth is explosive. Even under double average growth acceleration the numbers are still sort of a fizzle. By 2050 human population numbers are seemingly going to decline, so that's the end of explosive growth anyway. What the Watchtower needs is another decade to give them the boost they needed. This is where the 2010-2020 decade comes in and also the next scenario.
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  John Aquila

  The spin of the Watchtower would want us to believe that growth is explosive.

  
  

  (Isaiah 60:22) . . .The little one himself will become a thousand, and the small one a mighty nation. I myself, Jehovah, shall speed it up in its own time.”