Saintbertholdt

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Posts by Saintbertholdt

• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  Steve2,

  JWs have not been the "only" kid on the block for decades - their claimed days of being "the fastest growing religious group in the world" are well and truly over, as the religiuosly needy flood to other groups for consolation.

  Yeah they're actually following a very set growth pattern now.

  If my pessimist projection is correct they can actually stop their preaching activity today and still achieve some growth. Their preaching work is not really adding that much anymore. To become "the fastest growing" religion they'd have to discard a lot of the unattractive ideas like the blood doctrine, door to door etc. And that won't happen anytime soon.
• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  "JW facts states I believe for every two the get baptised one leaves, I'm thinking it's becoming a one to one ratio."

  So you would propose it will become static? When and at what number?
• 
  1

  Straw Poll: In 2050 how many Jehovah's Witness publishers will there be on average?

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. beliefs

  from the topic i made earlier (see below), it made me wonder about the forum's opinion.. straw poll: in 2050 how many jehovah's witness publishers will there be on average?.

  link: http://strawpoll.de/oirz9kyi hope you will participate.. greetings.

  sb.

  1. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  Hi there all,

  From the topic I made earlier (see below), it made me wonder about the forum's opinion.
  

  Straw Poll: In 2050 how many Jehovah's Witness publishers will there be on average?

  Link: http://strawpoll.de/oIRz9ky
  I hope you will participate.

  Greetings

  SB

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/381810002/some-watchtower-growth-projection-numbers-5-scenarios?size=5&page=1

  
  
  
• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  I created a Straw Poll with the Question:

  In 2050 how many Jehovah's Witness publishers will there be on average?

  http://strawpoll.de/oIRz9ky
  
• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  Hi Freddo,

  So based on your idea that "...the quality of dubs (ie staying power, stamina) is dropping." how many average publishers do you project in 2050?

  Just for reference: The 2014 number (In the 2015 yearbook) is 7 867 958.
• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  What if a major cataclysmic scandal hits the Watchtower in the next couple of Years?
  For example: On 5 November 2017 the Watchtower declares chapter 11.
  Who knows why? Perhaps bad investments, and they run out of funds during their building project upheaval and end up making lots of debt that the faithful can't cover. Who knows? Cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria :) Then the scandals keep on coming (sexual abuse, lawsuits etc.) and they do something really dumb like they try another date prediction, which backfires.

  So in this scenario this decades PpPpD drops to zero. Then I use the inverse value (a reverse velocity) of the best decades PpPpD in ascending order. This scenario is a wild wild speculation but then again its Armageddon :)

  A Watchtower Armageddon projection

  
  

  Note: The Average publisher level in 2050 is 1.38 million. Very bad but the organization still survives. Come to think of it, its actually not that bad for the Governing Body. The Risk of Ruin of the organization is virtually zero.

  So if I was a betting man (which I am), I'd put the odds as follows:

  1. The Most Probable and Reasonable Scenario - (1 in 2)

  2. The 'New World' scenario - (1 in 3)

  3. The 'Lost World' scenario - (1 in 10)

  4. The Pessimist scenario - (1 in 3)

  5. A Watchtower Armageddon projection - (1 in 20+)
  
  

  Conclusion: I come to the unfortunate conviction that the Watchtower corporation is here to stay, but that its growth will be less optimistic than the GB would like. General lows from about 10 to a high of 13 million publishers can be expected in 2050. The extremes (3 deviation limit) are about 1.3 and 23 million.

  All in all slightly cloudy with a chance of showers :)

  Thanks for all the comments so far.

  I'd like to hear your odds and comments on these projections or even your own number projections.

  Greetings SB

  
  
  
  
  
• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  So the Pessimist scenario addresses what most people have and will comment on in that there's a slow exodus from the Watchtower. To back that up the PpPpD Ratio has been declining quite linearly between 1990 and 2010. The 2010 decade is bucking the trend though. So what if the old trend resumed after 2020? This would hinge on the idea that sanity prevails and the US decides to stop lending, Greece finally defaults (as it should but probably won't do), the world licks its wounds and promises to return to fiscal prudence. Alternatively the US could innovate its way out of its predicament as it has done in the past with things like the 'green revolution' and the 'internet revolution'. Although the Pessimist scenario is also an unlikely scenario it could also conceivably happen.

  The Pessimist scenario

  
  

  Note: Peak numbers in 2050 end at 10.3 million publishers. Actually not that pessimistic if you come to think about it. Only a million less than the 'reasonable' estimate. The fact is you can't undo 100 years of growth that easily. Witnesses also multiply and have children who are brought up as witnesses and they most probably remain tied to the religion (for some time into adulthood anyway). This is the trend in all other religions on the planet. But what if there was a massive scandal? The final scenario 'The Watchtower Armageddon' scenario covers that.
• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  The 'Lost World' scenario is where the Watchtower has a double the average PpPpD Ratio for the 2010-2020 decade and is then followed by the same growth rate as the 'New World' scenario. This however cannot be done anymore because the decade is half completed and therefore a reasonable projection can be calculated.

  Considering the state of the World economy from 2008 onward its actually quite a surprise that the Watchtower couldn't bolster numbers further than they have. They have bucked the trend by about double, but its still not enough.

  So in this lost paradise scenario, which is highly improbable, what would the numbers have looked like?

  The 'Lost World' scenario

  
  

  Note: Peak numbers in 2050 hit 23.4 million, but this opportunity seems to have passed the Watchtower corporation by. On the other hand stranger things have happened and you never know, ...buuuuut I don't think it will.

  Next the pessimist and Watchtower Armageddon scenarios.
• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  Hi John,

  "The little one himself will become a thousand, and the small one a mighty nation. I myself, Jehovah,shall speed it up in its own time."

  Perhaps if they have a speed up of the acceleration :)
• 
  27

  Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

  by Saintbertholdt in

  1. watchtower
  2. bible

  i've been doing some watchtower membership growth projections.

  the best, worst and most lightly future scenarios.

  i've used the worlds population as a barometer of future watchtower growth.

  1. 
  2. 
  3. 
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  So what happens if the Watchtower has sterling growth over the next four decades?
  Some reasons why this could happen:

  1. The USA recedes into a long recession lasting on and off for many decades. This is because if the US keeps on borrowing money it will double its debt in the next decade from $17 Trillion to about $30 Trillion. I use the name 'Long Recession' in remembrance of the long depression in the US in the late 1800's. Also if the USA sneezes the World catches the cold.

  The Watchtower grows best in times of distress so a prolonged recession would certainly bolster their numbers.

  2. China's publisher numbers are currently an unknown quantity. If the Chinese became more legislatively open in the coming decades the Watchtower could conceivable become a legal entity which could bolster the organizations growth significantly, hence the New World Scenario title.

  Under this scenario I would project that the average PpPpD Ratio could double. This ratio is slightly better than the 1980 to 1990 ratio (which was the best) and is projected for four decades. The current PpPpD ratio is lower for 2010 to 2020 as the 2015 numbers are giving a good projection what the 2020 numbers will be and therefore is therefore fixed. Anyway so what happens then?

  2. The 'New World' scenario

  
  

  Notes: Peak publisher numbers in 2050 end up at 13.5 million. This is still quite bland. The spin of the Watchtower would want us to believe that growth is explosive. Even under double average growth acceleration the numbers are still sort of a fizzle. By 2050 human population numbers are seemingly going to decline, so that's the end of explosive growth anyway. What the Watchtower needs is another decade to give them the boost they needed. This is where the 2010-2020 decade comes in and also the next scenario.