It seems like they are operating with a giant flow chart.
If we lose Norway, then follow this arrow.
If we win Norway, follow this arrow.
After following the Lose Norway arrow, they've now found themselves with a new decision.
If saying hello to disfellowshipped ones, inviting them to the Memorial and crowing about beards and pants doesn't bring people back, but instead backfires...
Yeah. I'd say that's about right where they are right now.
I agree that it's purely reactive and they're throwing anything out there to see what sticks.