Enlarged postate,
I love your name. Welcome to the site. Mine isn't a narrative; it's an explanation.
Posts by DJS
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28Chinese Progress in their Move from a Government Financed Economy to a Private Economy
by fulltimestudent inthe chinese government is said to be about half way in the progress from a centralised command economy to a market driven, private enterprise economy.. .
link: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/china/private-capital-gets-more-bang-in-china-as-economic-reforms-step-up-20141023-11ah6z.html.
canberra times.
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28
Chinese Progress in their Move from a Government Financed Economy to a Private Economy
by fulltimestudent inthe chinese government is said to be about half way in the progress from a centralised command economy to a market driven, private enterprise economy.. .
link: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/china/private-capital-gets-more-bang-in-china-as-economic-reforms-step-up-20141023-11ah6z.html.
canberra times.
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DJS
Alright bicches, it’s time for the second class of Professor DJS’ economics class 101. We have so many OPs re: China’s economic miracle, and my ongoing frustration with dumbass responses to them (King of the North, overtaking the US, blah blah blah) demands a more proactive response. Full Time Student has eloquently posted data. Kudos to him/her. But some of you bicches haven’t a clue about economics. So listen up.
The 2008-2009 global financial crisis resulted in the % of China's GDP tied to exports plunging from 38% in 2007 to 24% (current) almost overnight. In layman's terms that is roughly a 1.3 TRILLION dolllar hit on the GDP. The recession decimated China's low-end (low tech/low margin) export sector. The crisis halted the decades long low-cost export boom that the Chinese government had kept alive.
Most economists believe the boom was kept alive well beyond its natural life span, through years of systematic wage repression (there is a wage/benefit level which will make Chinese low cost/low tech goods unattractive to spoiled western consumers (Walmart, Always the Low Price. Always. Oh, excuse me, new slogan "Save $. Live Better), which would have stopped the train in its tracks – I have referenced this in previous OPs) and wasteful subsidies (can you say Japan circa 1980 boys and girls), both direct and indirect, to manufacturers.
The Chinese government was propping up the engine that had gotten them firmly on the world economic stage, even though it was past time to retire that engine. Remember a few months ago when I briefly discussed letting aging industries die (and let someone else make the low cost/low profit margin stuff) and moving quickly to a new paradigm??? As painful as it may seem in the moment, letting it die (think the textile industry in the US) is the best long-term strategy to maintain an effective economy (Adam Smith says you are welcome).
If you are the Gang-of-Five (or whatever they are called the ruling body these days), what do you do, both to save face and to keep the engine churning and try to get as many of your 1.6 billion people engaged in the 21 st Century? Well, the leaders did what they could control to keep the economy going (some would say on life support). They enabled massive expansion of state-led investment into housing and infrastructure construction (all hail Full Time Student- now, as Paul Harvey would say -the REST of the story).
The infrastructure was likely a very good thing, as it should position China to play in a very large way on the world economic scene. But infrastructure improvements are typically a long-term strategy with long term payback. Good for them, though. It is also a copy/paste from the very Keynsian approach adopted by the US to get out of the Great Depression in the 1930s. Google it.
The housing boom is showing signs of having finally run its course. The boom was fueled by the 600,000 or so Chinese who had expendable income but with nothing to do with it (the Chinese stock market sucks the big one). Buying housing, and speculating that there would be buyers for it at a large profit, resulted in entire cities being built, many of which are not inhabited. Not houses or subdivisions. Entire freaking Cities. Got that? ENTIRE UNINHABITED CITIES. Got that????
Since nearly 1 billion. Let’s stop right there and say it together, class. A fucking .... BILLION. . . people are under/un-educated agrarian peasants who couldn’t afford the cheap consumer goods China is making, much less houses and condos, the impact on the GDP of the housing 'boom" (not really fair to call it that now is it) kinda sorta stops right there, at least for the time being. I also alluded to the inherent concerns with the ‘if you build it they will come’ philosophy months ago.
Part II soon to come.
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28
Chinese Progress in their Move from a Government Financed Economy to a Private Economy
by fulltimestudent inthe chinese government is said to be about half way in the progress from a centralised command economy to a market driven, private enterprise economy.. .
link: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/china/private-capital-gets-more-bang-in-china-as-economic-reforms-step-up-20141023-11ah6z.html.
canberra times.
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DJS
Oceans,
I have taught economics, including global, marco-economic theory and practical applicaion, at the collegiate level, and studied it at the undergrad and graduate levels. But thanks for the concern. Everything you say about the problems associated with Western economies is true, as we have attested to in the past. But the same things are true of the Chinese economy They have a lot of very serious barriers to cross before they establish a stable, iterative economy. With 1.6 billion people, they will without doubt pass up everyone else. Do the math.
But there wiil be bumps in the road along the way. That's all that any of us who know wtf we are talking have ever said. Economics is not simple; anyone reading an article or two and then thinks they understand the topic is a dumbass.
If you really want to discuss global, marco-economic theory and application with me, I suggest that you study the topic for a few years and then get back to me.
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49
MY CONCLUSION IS: 'GOD' DOESN'T EXIST
by NAVYTOWN ini have come to the conclusion that there is no god.
period!!!
if there was a loving, righteous, all-knowing, all powerful god up there somewhere, where is he and what good is he???
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DJS
Alright DJS, if you ignore dumbasses they will go away. If you ignore dumbasses they will go away. If you ignore dumbasses they will go away. Where IS LisaRose when you need her?
Wow, Oceans11, that was a long piece of bullshit. Let me repeat back what I think you are saying so that I'm certain I understand. It sounded like blah, blah, blah, blah, i'm a narcissist, blah blah blah, i like typing a lot into my responses because it makes me seem smart and the sound of my own voice is the most pleasant sound, blah blah blah, I really don't know what I'm talking about and haven't done any real research about the topic but I love narcissistically ranting, blah blah blah.
At least you did use the word opinion a few times.
Oceans, your rant has been addressed so many times on this site. I know lots of atheists. None of them are angry at god or anyone else, and everyone of them has the same story; they spent years analyzing, evaluating, studying and meditating about god. Losing my relgion (that's me in the corner) was a decades long process. I have no atheist heroes. My atheism belongs to me and I never speak of it other than this site. Most of my friends are Xtians, Jews, Hindus, etc. A lof of them are atheists. Great people all.
Also, just a llittle tiny bit of good research on the www would have shown you that atheism has been increasing worldwide for many years, including the very religious US. If you include the number who identify as 'non-religious" (some are afraid to use the term atheist), lots of people are losing their religion (they gotta find their own corner. This is mine).
And as we have pointed out soooo many times, the empirical data shows that the more secular and atheistic a state, region or nation is, the more likely it is to be functional. Geesh, is there a "here's what you say to atheists" book that some of you theists use to type in canned responses??? We keep hearing the same dumbass arguments (I'm not as smart as Cofty - facile is too big of a word for me. And I've copyrighted the use of dumbass on this site. I've talked to my therapist (me) and we both agree that I simply have to use the word.
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Chinese Progress in their Move from a Government Financed Economy to a Private Economy
by fulltimestudent inthe chinese government is said to be about half way in the progress from a centralised command economy to a market driven, private enterprise economy.. .
link: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/china/private-capital-gets-more-bang-in-china-as-economic-reforms-step-up-20141023-11ah6z.html.
canberra times.
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DJS
FTS, thanks for the Chinese economic update, and I'm sorry about the end-of-time conspiracy theorists amongst us who can't avoid the keyboard. This OP directly addresses a comment I made months ago in another Chinese economic OP:
"The Invisible Hand will reach out and touch all nations, just as it did with the Japanese miracle 2 decades ago. The Chinese have a Field of Dreams goal, "If you build it they will come." It is admirable, but sooner or later the Chinese economy will have to compete directly with the world. Absent serious government support, can it thrive? Do they really have a free market capitalisitic economy? Or is the government propping up currencies, spending on infrastructure and enabling 'capatilistic' endeavors to such a degree that, once it is required to compete mano a mano, it will suffer?? Those are 64 dollar questions. There are others."
The Chinese leaders are aware that, for their economy to thrive in the future they will need to compete with the global economic powers on equal footing. Having said that, Oceans is right about one thing (if you can find something rational in that end of time rant) in that economies are a public/private entity. And they should be. Darwinian survival of the fittest capitalism may be ruthlessly efficient, but it is ruthlessly indifferent to the have-nots, the strivers and those simply incapable of thriving otherwise.
China is doing some amazing things; they have some enormous barriers in front of them. And they know it. Governments can prop up economies for only so long until the world demands equanimity. They can build protective walls around certain industries or capabilities for a while (all governments do it), but The Invisible Hand will have its say.
I'm pulling for the Chinese. And the Russians. And the Liberians . . .
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Discussion forum: Communication tips...
by new hope and happiness inre-reading my last thread ".... my former faith, islam and tolerance" i can see my o.p failed to clarify the specific point i wished to debate.
( ironically i thought most posters were off topic).. now it occurd to me that i have joined this " discussion forum" but i have no former exsperience on discussion forums.
(a very sad realization having been here a year).
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DJS
Opinions are fine and acceptable New Hope, they just need to be framed as opinions with some humility - you just might be wrong. How many of us on this site have been wrong about a major issue. Besides all of us.
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MY CONCLUSION IS: 'GOD' DOESN'T EXIST
by NAVYTOWN ini have come to the conclusion that there is no god.
period!!!
if there was a loving, righteous, all-knowing, all powerful god up there somewhere, where is he and what good is he???
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DJS
Witness 007 - can I grab a glass of wine and a girl and get naked or is your religion predicated on beer alone?
NavyTown - Ditto x 1000. It amazes me how anyone educated or smarter than the average bear can remain religious. It also amazes me how anyone coming out of a high control cult like the Dubs continues to seek 'god' in other religions. As if. Some even return to high control groups, such as the Mormons and Islam. No offense intended, please, but I find it impossible to understand. BTW NavyTown, I'm glad you are on this forum; I don't know that I ever disagree with anything you write.
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Discussion forum: Communication tips...
by new hope and happiness inre-reading my last thread ".... my former faith, islam and tolerance" i can see my o.p failed to clarify the specific point i wished to debate.
( ironically i thought most posters were off topic).. now it occurd to me that i have joined this " discussion forum" but i have no former exsperience on discussion forums.
(a very sad realization having been here a year).
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DJS
Good OP New Hope, even though it doesn't seem to be drawing a lot of attention. I agree with you, but the anonymity provided by the Internet allows dumbasses to say anything in any manner. In addition, the world wide web allows for a 'leveling' of the playing field so that dumbasses and smart people can both appear to have a point. In a controlled environment with a rational, educated audience, the dumbasses wouldn't even be invited to the forum, much less be able to hijack or contaminate the discussion.
Spelling and grammar and other communication issues don't really bother me (they would if I was still teaching college). What really annoys me is that so many dumbasses show a deep lack of respect of:
a. the topic (if you don't know anything about it keep quiet, avoid the keyboard, go to google scholar, read a book, or otherwise know wtf you are tallking about when you approach the keyboard). And going quickly to the www to find the first confirmation bias article is not research;
b. debating protocols - debates in the rational grown up world are about 2 things - facts and the correct interpretation of those facts. Anything else is an opinion or a debating strategy employed by someone who doesn't know what they are talking about and are seeking to 'win' points. Show some humility and frame an opinion as an opinion. It amazes me how many dumbasses quickly and arrogantly express entrenced views in disagreement with the absolute experts on a topic who have advanced degrees and decades of experience on a topic while they themselves have nothing more than a high school diploma from Dumbass High; and
c. other posters and lurkers - arrogantly and childishly taking up space that could better be used wastes everyone's time, and as Cofty and others have rightly pointed out, dumbass views can infect others.
Wiinning 'points' on the world wide web is a given; any dumbass viewpoint immediately collects a cadre of like-minded dumbass adherents, which is an annoying thing about the 'net but overall in the greater scheme of things may be a good thing. I'm still wondering about that though. I think all of us (except the dumbasses amongst us) would prefer that dumbasses remain silent, do some research, or simply show some humility. There are few things worse than an entrenched, arrogant dumbass.
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In your opinion: What is the average IQ of the Governing Body?
by LogCon ini don't know if this question has been asked before,.
but, in any case,.
based on the comments of the governing body, at various conventions, annual meetings , info-mmercials, etcetara, etcetara, etcetera, [ i loved yule brenner in the king and i],.
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DJS
Sir82 and Oubilette are likely spot on. The GB have never provided any reasons for anyone thinking their collective IQs are anything but average - at best. They might occasionally have one or two with higher than average IQs, but the tripe and nonsense coming from the Dark Tower over the decades strongly suggests individuals with lower than average intelligence.
Having met a few of them and listened to a lot of them dryly, rotely and moronically read scripted talks at assembles has supported my view that these are uninspired and uninspiring, follow the leader drones. IMHO, it is an insult to intelligent people everywhere to mention these idiots in the same breath. They have shown themselves, at best, to be average.
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The EBOLA conspiracy...
by gopher123 inhey guys.
there has been a ton of illuminati hollywood mind control pre-programming about this virus outbreak before it actually happened.
conspiracy people of the world... unite.. .
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DJS
LisaRose: Your statement: "DJS, you are giving him waaaayyyy too much credit. I think he actually believes this nonsense."
I'm trying to turn over a new leaf and be a kinder gentler DJS because of YOU!!! LOL. Your kind guidance has led me re-evaluate my responses. Apparently I have swung too far the otherway!!!! I'm sooo confused ;-).