SERVICE REPORT 2005 : WATCHTOWER FEB 1ST 2006 (page 9)

InquiryMan

In 2003 the number of countries with negative or zero growth was 7. In 2004 the number of countries with negative or zero growth was 22. In 2005 the number of countries with negative or zero growth was 70!

TheListener

David 2002 said:

Actually, in the US and other countries, they have been building more KHs. In cases in which KH's have been sold (which as happened in Florida and Colorado), the local brothers needed to do so in order to buy or build a larger KH. Meeting attendance continues to exceed the number of publishers in the US as well as in other countries. This means that most likely larger percentage increases are on their way. Even i the US, the 1,035,000 maxium number of publishers was larger the 1,019,000 max of last year. That max was reached during the last part of the service year which may indicate a larger growth trend in the US during the year 2006. (The reason the annual report shows a "0" percent growth rate for the US is because the growth of the average number of publishers, which was about 995,000, was less than 1%. It appears that if the growth is less than 1% in a given country, then 0% percent growth is listed. However, in the US case, there appears to be a greater growth trend for the US, since the 1.035 million figure, from what I understand, was reported later in the service year.)

First, I agree that meeting attendance exceeds publisher numbers. It would have to. There are specific requirements to be a publisher of the good news. However, meeting attendance has been shrinking for the last decade. Shrinking meeting attendance has been the subject of many CO visits. Also, the fact that August had a publisher peak isn't as meaningful as you may think (or may wish us to think). An historical review of service years month by month may not support your conclusion. April 2005 had over 1million publishers but May - July reported 991, 973, 976 (000s) respectively so there was no upward trend there. If you're talking growth trend here is what I see for the last 11 years (1995-2005) in the U.S.:

1995: 3%

1996: 1%

1997: 1%

1998: 2%

1999: 0%

2000: 0%

2001: 0%

2002: 3%

2003: 2%

2004: 0%

2005: 0%

seattleniceguy

>> In 2003 the number of countries with negative or zero growth was 7. In 2004 the number of countries with negative or zero growth was 22. In 2005 the number of countries with negative or zero growth was 70!
Now that's what I call results! Go information technology!
SNG

sir82

However, meeting attendance has been shrinking for the last decade. Shrinking meeting attendance has been the subject of many CO visits.

Meeting attendance is shrinking in English-speaking congregations.

Meeting attendance is soaring in Spanish-speaking and other-language congregations, in places where there are large numbers of immigrants.

In the original post, to which the above reply was posted, the poster cited Colorado and Florida, areas where (1) there are huge numbers of Spanish-speaking immigrants, and (2) into which there are large numbers of people moving in general. Even the English-speaking congregations are growing, as JWs move from NY, NJ, CT, etc. drawn by sunnier weather and/or more affordable housing and/or better work prospects.

The overall trend of JWs in the US breaks down as:

1) English-speakers, 75% of the JWs, dwindling at 2-5% per year.

2) Spanish-speakers, 25% of JWs, growing tremendously, perhaps as much as 8-10% per year.

The net result is an overall "growth" rate of 0% for the whole country.

greendawn

Does that mean that Jehovah has removed his blessing from the org in 70 countries? Past increases were declared to be a blessing.

serendipity

I think the WTS assumes that God's spirit is waning. After looking around for root causes, they've come up with an action plan. So they've stepped up the "beatings" because after all, it's the publishers' fault that the numbers are decreasing. If they want to place blame, they should look in the mirror.

AuldSoul

David 2002,

Those who are actively reporting preaching activity are the ones who are counted. That is a very important distinction from what you said, since reporting is entirely on the "honor system." I happen to know people that [gasp!] lie about it to keep the brothers from hounding them. I also know people who "ring" the screws above and below the doorbell to give the appearance of field ministry.

But maybe by the year 2035 JWs will have small GPS tracking chips inserted with voice recognition software, or better yet brainwave detection software, so that at the end of the month a publisher merely plugs in to a jack and uploads all their conversations and visual information for the month. The Society could then determine what was and was not preaching. Along with determining what was and was not pornography, what was and was not "with greediness," what was and was not perverted sex acts with one's spouse, etc.

No, although there would be judicial advantages to such a system it will never be implemented. They would find that the ACTUAL publishers are far fewer than the REPORTED publishers and that over half the ACTIVE Witnesses should be disfellowshipped. That would never do.

AuldSoul

TheListener

Sir 82 wrote (yellow highlighting mine):

Meeting attendance is shrinking in English-speaking congregations.
Meeting attendance is soaring in Spanish-speaking and other-language congregations, in places where there are large numbers of immigrants.
In the original post, to which the above reply was posted, the poster cited Colorado and Florida, areas where (1) there are huge numbers of Spanish-speaking immigrants, and (2) into which there are large numbers of people moving in general. Even the English-speaking congregations are growing, as JWs move from NY, NJ, CT, etc. drawn by sunnier weather and/or more affordable housing and/or better work prospects.
The overall trend of JWs in the US breaks down as:
1) English-speakers, 75% of the JWs, dwindling at 2-5% per year.
2) Spanish-speakers, 25% of JWs, growing tremendously, perhaps as much as 8-10% per year.
The net result is an overall "growth" rate of 0% for the whole country.

Here is the original post again. I see where he discusses Kingdom Hall sales and builds for the US and parenthetically mentions Florida and Colorado as support for his nationwide supposition. Then after making the Colorado & Florida parenthetical statement regarding KH sales and builds David 2002 goes on to discuss growth rates for the US in general and doesn't appear to be using Florida & Colorado as examples. (again, yellow highlighting mine):

Actually, in the US and other countries, they have been building more KHs. In cases in which KH's have been sold (which as happened in Florida and Colorado), the local brothers needed to do so in order to buy or build a larger KH. Meeting attendance continues to exceed the number of publishers in the US as well as in other countries. This means that most likely larger percentage increases are on their way. Even i the US, the 1,035,000 maxium number of publishers was larger the 1,019,000 max of last year. That max was reached during the last part of the service year which may indicate a larger growth trend in the US during the year 2006. (The reason the annual report shows a "0" percent growth rate for the US is because the growth of the average number of publishers, which was about 995,000, was less than 1%. It appears that if the growth is less than 1% in a given country, then 0% percent growth is listed. However, in the US case, there appears to be a greater growth trend for the US, since the 1.035 million figure, from what I understand, was reported later in the service year.)

I understand your viewpoint regarding immigration and meeting attendance and growth rates.

As an aside, I am not completely convinced that the Spanish congregations are all busting at the seems. There may be some that are but I believe the Spanish growth rate is cooling down. Supposition? Yes. Fact: The Spanish congregations have been struggling for decades to find enough qualified brothers to do the MS and elder work.

AuldSoul

Great point about the struggle for brothers to handle MS and Elder responsibilities, Listener. As I understand it, about four years ago policy changed to allow brothers who were known to be illegal aliens serve in those capacities. How can someone ACTIVELY breaking Caesar's law without Scriptural requirement to do so be appointed? Just ask the Holy Spirit guys up in New York. They should be able to give you Scriptural reasons.

Respectfully,
AuldSoul

TheListener

Auld Soul, you're spot on with that requirements change. Before that they were struggling soooooo bad. Your heart really went out to the few, and I mean few, that were able to serve. Now, it's better but still a definite struggle. That's probably why attendance is swelling, not enough brothers to split the cong. in two.

SERVICE REPORT 2005 : WATCHTOWER FEB 1ST 2006

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