I like the way you think, hillary_step ... facts and figures, hard numbers. I like those. Facts are stubborn little things.
An interesting aside is the average figure of young ones raised in the WTS who face the six-eyed circus (Judicial Committee) before the age of 21, which is, if my memory serves me well is 57%, this obviously does not include the non-reporters.
Sounds a little low. It's been a while since I've really thought about it, but nearly every Witness kid that I've met in the last twenty years has more or less left the org. Imo, the trend will continue... my step-son (unbaptized, high school senior) hangs with elders kids, and they can have some fun. They think they are slick, that they are pulling a fast one, but I was young once. I don't say a word.
... they leave because they are bored senseless by the endless roundabout of sterile meetings, hosted by a group of tired pastel shaded men, who if the truth were known would rather be out sailing and screaming into the wind
In other words, "like their parents," who'd rather be elsewhere, also, and more frequently are making no secret of it. 'Do as I say and not as I do' never was a very good motivator.
For all of their inexperience, it's hard to fool kids. It's always been that way, whether we're talking about JW kids or Albanian kids or Ethiopian kids and on and on. Over the years, they've eavesdropped on enough conversations between their elders, read between the lines of enough magazines, sensed the heartache and disappointment stemming from old folk (including their parents) that they'd rather not go through THE SAME misery... a different misery, yeah, but not the same. Young people who AREN'T raised JWs kill themselves off at an alarming rate. Just think about those that live these days under the tedium of relentless rules.
An increasing trend that seems to have been borne out by many congregations that I have discussed this situation with. About 78% of committees involved those raised in the Truth and under 21 years of age, 60% of these have left the WTS and have not returned.
Kids, humans, have not changed. Today's young people are cut from the same fabric as kids 15, 50, 100, 1000 years ago. They want the same things young people have always wanted. The Society thinks that by repeated threats of Armageddon and the 'end is right around the corner' they can manage (control) the behavior of people who are not about to put up with the b.s. that their parents have. It's not happening. It ain't gonna happen.
peace,
tj