If 86% of kids are leaving. That means 14% are staying. The growth rates are 50% for the last 10 years. That means that witnesses are having a hell of a lot more kids than the average person or that most people that are baptized aren't witness kids. Also, we are only talking about active witnesses as counted by the Watchtower. The news report posted in the news section indicates about 1% of Americans identify as Jehovah's Witnesses, that is about 3 million just in the US. So even though they are inactive, 2 million people still adhere to the beliefs enough to identify it as their religious affiliation.
Methinks the problems of the Watchtower are exaggerated. There methodology clearly produces growth, this is an undisputed fact. The number of issues of the Watchtower that are produced has also risen dramatically, again indicating a successful business plan. Every business has to allow for a certain percentage of customer seepage.
People don't become witnesses or stay witnesses for very long because they believe the end is near. People become and stay witnesses because it matches their goals for spirituality and their goals to socialize with people of like mind.
My opinions are just that, opinions, but I don't think anyone here has statistically significant enough information to draw conclusions as to what attracts, keeps or loses, Jehovah's Witnesses. It would be a fascinating sociological study, but we are just guessing based on our personal feelings and those of others we have been exposed to.
I doubt seriously that many leave strictly out of doctrinal disagreements, no matter what they say. Most people leave because the witnesses no longer fulfill their spiritual needs (which are more complicated than a set of beliefs) or their social needs (including career and education goals, marital or partnership desires, etc.).
The Watchtower Society is what it is. It markets itself to a very specific market which will always be a small market, but look how much money it makes with this structure. They know that they will never be The Catholic Church (Citicorp or Walmart) so they happily settle for being who they are (First National Bank of Metropolis or Smith's Department store).
I emphasize this because the way to get people out is to teach them how to live, not pick pick pick at this or that doctrine or prophecy, etc. That is all mostly irrelevant and surface. The way they get people and keep them is they take away their ability to live or even want to live fully in the short term.
Even the pedophilia thing will go right over 95% of their heads as already shown by the support the pedophiles are getting at the local congregational level. How many less Catholics are there after years of abuse?
Besides, most witnesses who might leave because of doctrine or false prophecy or scandal still don't know how to live happily. I see this in my own family which has 16 people. 1 Dfed, 2 active 13 inactive or children of inactive. The inactive ones would still say they are Jehovah's Witnesses and even though they don't go to meetings they have no life plan, they DON'T KNOW HOW TO LIVE.
I of course wish you all peace, but I think you are barking up the wrong trees.
Hugs
Joel