How long before the Society's growth goes negative?

BurnTheShips

It seems that growth just slows and slows. We are down to under 2%! http://home.zonnet.nl/rsingelenberg/Web-images/graphs/stats_05/annualgrowth_05.htm I suspect if it was not for Hispanic immigration the US would have been negative for a long time now! I go to a Spanish congregation and I hear the English bros always say how there is no growth any more. How long do you think before we have the first negative year since the '70s? Next year? 5 years? What do you think the GB will do when they see the B'Org shrinking? Truly the "waters" are drying up! BurnTheShips

under_believer

Worldwide, it could be decades. Religion is on a huge upswing in Africa and the global South. I work with a Mormon dude and apparently they're experiencing huge growth in South America just like the Witnesses.

In Western, first-world nations, I would expect sustained zero growth before 2010.

frankiespeakin

Since the development of the internet the old farts on the GB(who are not computor savey) are beside themselves as what to do to stem the tide of negative growth. The same old stragedies no longer work, and these guys are so old that thier brains have to deal with hardening of the arteries, that they can not be creative enough to deal with the challenges the information highway posses.

They will never recover, and never have growth like that of the mid 70s. Those days are gone forever! O they may have a little burst of growth here and there but it will be very short lived, because you can only cry wolf somemany times before no one will respond. They can only cry the "end is near" so many times before everyone even those loyal jdubs no longer get excited, and just say to themselves: "Yeah right"!

OnTheWayOut

While I don't know, I suspect negative numbers much sooner than 2010 for 1st world nations.

I also suspect growth to die out in other nations. They are not traditionally Christian in many
lands, they are starting to get technology that opens the information superhighway also.

Expect lawsuits to start overwhelming the WTS, negative publicity to become widely known
among potential Bible students before they make committments. They are already so ineffective.
Old fogeys in the GB will try a few things, but it's kind of late.

IMO, Negative numbers start in 2008-2010 Worldwide.

frankiespeakin

I actually think that the negative growth has already started, even thogh it hasn't shown up in the WT generated figures. Because a negative growth report would be so harmful to the faith of the average JW I really think the spin doctors of the WT organization have figured a way to hide it from the rank and file, most likely buy lowering the hour requirement to be an active publisher, as well as some other way to fudge thier figures to show a more optimistic report.

We all know the WT is not above lying or distortions of the facts when it suits thier needs look at all the misquotes that have been uncovered in thier publications, so then why should we not conclude that they are also not being honest in reporting their growth over the last years.

BurnTheShips

Well, ant bets on growth for 2006? Anyone think it will be down to 1% or lower? It is already down under 2%.

sir82

most likely buy lowering the hour requirement to be an active publisher

Huh???

So, now you're only going to need 10 minutes per month instead of 15?

Anyways, I suspect that what may happen, if the "growth" becomes too alarmingly negative in 1st-world countries, is the disappearance of the country-by-country report in the Yearbook & Feb. 1 Watchtower. Just show a grand total with worldwide figures - they can probably still milk a positive growth rate overall for a decade or so longer.

OnTheWayOut

most likely by lowering the hour requirement to be an active publisher

They actually did that, don't laugh. There is a little known method where older JW's can count parts of an hour each month and stay active preachers. That would put them back into the total numbers. They just report 15 minutes or so each month.
WOW, I never thought of it as a way to bolster negative numbers. I was certain that the current Kingdom News #37 was a way to get inactive publishers out again.

Elsewhere

I did the numbers last year....

BurnTheShips

"I did the numbers last year"

Well, that is assuming a straight line decline, if you look at the older years on your chart, the percentages varied wildly.
Methinks all it would take for the WT to quickly bolster their numbers is to change the 6 month inactive rule to 1 year.
Another 9/11 or similar catastrophe could get the drones out in droves too.

How long before the Society's growth goes negative?

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