How long before the Society's growth goes negative?

by BurnTheShips 31 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Gill

  It depends on whether you can trust the figures they give now as accurate or not.

  The goalposts are moved now to only having to report 15 mins for some pubs. How long before the goal posts are moved furthur? How do we know for sure the figures are not doctored.

  In our old cong there used to be 115 publishers. Now there are 75 and I know of similar positions in other congs. However, I don't see a huge fall in the UK overall figures.

  I reckon it's all made up anyway.

  Don't trust anything they say!
• 

  startingover

  I was looking for some info on Mormon growth and I came upon this. The similarities are hilarious.
• 

  coolhandluke

  here is the problem with that... The JW's think that because of the door being narrow and few being the ones finding it that this is good news. Just like they think that a streaming to Mt. Zion is a good thing. They paint on both sides of the line for this very reason. They'll just twist it to be a good thing
• 

  willyloman

  I love it when this question pops up, as it often does here. First of all, the premise of the question is that the Society's growth is currently positive. But that assumes the WTS' numbers are accurate, and it's long been established that many of their numbers that we know something about are inaccurate. Example: The billions of hours of field service that show up on their reports each year are totally bogus, as everyone knows... the numbers are fudged, made up, or estimated by countless dubs (and dub congregation secretaries).

  The Society knows this and shrugs it off. So why would any of their other numbers be right on?

  The truth is that, in my little corner of the world - California - there is no doubt the growth has gone negative. And California is a bellwether, often predicting trends that will soon be nation- and world-wide. In an area where the population has doubled in the past 15 years, the number of congregations is unchanged, despite some artificial growth engineered by the Circuit Overseer some years back when he insisted the local dubs buy a lot and built two new KH's on it, to accommodate "all the future growth." they did, and what happened is that two congos that were each sharing halls with two other congos moved into the new buildings. The number of congos did not change. The number of publishers is pretty much stagnant (in fact, in the late 90's and early 00's, when I was active, the attendance was dropping dramatically, despite massive move-ins of new citizens from metro areas, including quite a few dubs).

  In our old hall, in another state, we received word recently that the two congos that share a hall built in the early 1990's are still sharing the hall, still have about the same number of publishers, and there are no new congo's anwhere in the area. This despite that fact that the area has exploded with population, more than doubling in that time.

  If you contrast that with the 15 or so years prior to 1990, there were new congos formed and new halls built everytime you turned around, especially in high growth areas like the ones I have described. There can only be one conclusion from these observations, and that is that dubs are losing people out the back door as fast (or faster) than they are coming in the front. I think this is a trend that will soon be obvious throughout the country and the world.

  I don't believe for a minute that their "growth" is in positive territory, in real terms. To me, the demise of the WTS, spurred on by dubs voting with their feet, started several years ago.
• 

  Elsewhere

  Well, that is assuming a straight line decline, if you look at the older years on your chart, the percentages varied wildly

  I based my future values on the fact that the WTS has suffered a very consistent decline since 1984. That was about the time the WTS started using a more business-like structure in how they managed the congregations, which in turn resulted in more consistent results.

  So long as they continue to operate like a business the results should continue to follow the trend line.
• 

  yaddayadda

  I'm convinced many JW's and even the Watchtower Society are secretly holding to the idea that Armageddon will come by 2014. Many are just grimly hanging on by the skin of their teeth as it is, and if it doesn't come by then, it will be the death knell for the organisations growth. After that they will go the way of the Worldwide Church of God after Herbert Armstrong's death, ie, shrivel up and splinter.
• 

  Frannie Banannie

  pfffttt! Haven't you heard? The courts ordered the WTS to deliver over the pedophiles' files and they (consequently?) issued a tract that the end of false religion is near....heheheh
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  DannyBloem

  actually if you caluclate the growth compared to the growth of the world polulation, then it is already negative!

  if you put a best fitting curve through the figures of the last 20 years then 2010 will be the first year of negatve growth.

  Danny
• 

  Qcmbr

  Starting over - just to put balance on your triumphalism. LDS theology teaches that the greater work of conversion to Jesus Christ (NOT Mormonism) is taking place amongst those that have already died where all the former prophets , apostles and christians are working to fulfill the mission of Jesus Christ and allow all people throughout time to accept Jesus - especially those who couldn't possibly have heard the good news through circumstance. The numbers of members here in mortality aren't as important as the influence they wield. When Jesus started the Christian church it was miniscule and suffered abject activity figures amongst its early converts, utter confusion and splintering into diametrically opposed factions and its almost total ruination with its official adoption by Constantine and the resulting apostacy that followed. Until christians stop worrying about who is best and start worrying about what God might actually want we'll still be squabbling like children when He returns and we'll look pretty stupid. At least those who don't believe have made up their mind but those who believe make it almost impossible to accept Jesus as no one can accurately describe Him. What we have is instead is attraction of converts 'by brand' - if you like saved by faith happy clapping go the the BAs, if you want to be scared knickerless about Armageddon go to the JWs, if you want your worship all mystical and done on your behalf go to the Catholics. What is certain is that IF Jesus and the whole Christian Ethos is correct the good guys will win and no one will talk about the splinter groups of religion. To experience growth in this homogenous world you have to appeal to a niche and when you've mined that particular mindset or fashions and politics change you find periods of stagnation and growth depending on who you appeal to. If we get just one nuclear war the JWs will treble in short shift but it won't particularly make them right just more scary:)
• 

  Alpheta

  The bottom line is - the bottom line! Headquarters doesn't give diddly squat about increasing the numbers UNLESS that means a big fresh influx of cash. And they sure aren't going to get a big fresh influx of cash from third world country converts where the average income is what - $100 or less per annum? The growth in Spanish language congregations in the US will moderate too; I haven't seen the latest numbers, but I seem to have a recollection that the former large end-over-end yearly increases in growth in Mexico has greatly moderated over the last few years. My though is that if Mexicans arent becoming witnesses in the home country at the same rate they formerly were, they'll not be likely to convert when they come to the US. Too busy working at minimum wage jobs and sending money back home to support the family.

  Remember the overall stats. I don't recall where the posts were, but (working from memory now), if all the people baptized over the last 20 years are added to the number of witnesses 20 years ago, and without subtracting any loss for death, there should be over 9 million witnesses by now. But that number just does not creep up above 6 million. If I recall the stats correctly, the outflow over the past few years has accelerated. So, when the WTBTS speaks of "growth", what they really mean to say is "we're not bleeding members as quickly as we were before". I used to be impressed by the numbers reported as coming to the Memorials, but I'm not anymore. Who gives a rip about them, they don't put money in the boxes in the back of the hall, it's like people going to church once a year, at Christmas time. These people are not going to become hard-core JWs who pour their hearts and most of their cash into the Society's whims!

  If the Society wants to brag about the great growth they're experiencing in Africa and other like places, let them! Sooner or later, even the rank and file will figure out that it does NOT cost $8,000 to build a thatch-roofed, tin-sided kingdom hall in the Congo. Guess they are figuring it out already, heh, since the people who report here on local Kingdom Hall accounts from time to time show that accounts are down, down, down. I was in from 93 until 2003 and when I look back, I mark a distinct increase in the call for money from the platform for this, that and the other thing, from about 1999 onward, and it was really getting annoying by the time I left in October, 2003 since one of the most important premises of being the "true religion" is that Jehovah would provde, and they WOULD NEVER HAVE TO BEG FOR MONEY. We don't KNOW what the WTBTS finances are overall, but I don't imagine things have improved since 2003.