Poet and writer Mark Twain sez: "if a million people believe in a stupid thing for a hundred years,it's STILL a stupid thing
Astonishing Publisher Peak in Britain for August 2006
by slimboyfat 72 Replies latest watchtower bible
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slimboyfat
No arguments there Danny!
But I find it fascinating that the Witnesses still manage to increase somehow despite everything.
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Gill
Thanks for the 'astounding figures'!
I have a couple of problems with them.
The first is that, August comes after July. In July there's a lot of holiday makers, more than usual, in the UK and so a lot may well not have put in their reports in July, therefore a fairer chance than usual that more than normal would have been double counted.
The second problem I have with the figures, is I just don't see the dubs out on the preaching work around here very often. I know that the meeting attendances have become pitifully small compared to the 1990s. Something just doesn't ring true with these figures.
The third problem is that really I don't feel confident in trusting ANY figure that the Society put down on paper.
I Don't trust or Believe anything they say.
There is NO WAY that in my area in which three congs are know to me, there has been ANY kind of increase! That I know for a fact due to inside information. They're struggling for cash, meeting attendances, and, unless there is a large foreign influx, since there is a large Polish, temporary population in the UK at the moment, I can see no other explanation for it.
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slimboyfat
The first is that, August comes after July. In July there's a lot of holiday makers, more than usual, in the UK and so a lot may well not have put in their reports in July, therefore a fairer chance than usual that more than normal would have been double counted.
That's right. That is why August is always the peak figure, I think you have interpreted that correctly. But I think you miss the main point. That observation explains why August is always higher than any other month, but it does not explain why this year's August is higher than last year's. We are comparing like for like, and the factor you mention affects both figures and therefore is irrelevant when comparing them.
The second problem I have with the figures, is I just don't see the dubs out on the preaching work around here very often. I know that the meeting attendances have become pitifully small compared to the 1990s. Something just doesn't ring true with these figures.
I also think there may be some inflating of the figures on an individual level - perhaps even more so than there was in the past. There seems no way of proving that however.
The third problem is that really I don't feel confident in trusting ANY figure that the Society put down on paper.
Well it has been known for the Witnesses to publish inflated figures on occasion. I remember reading of one interesting example of an African branch that inflated the reported numbers sent to Bethel because they saw it made the GB happy when they reported such good figures. But on the whole the Witness figures are pretty reliable, certainly more accurate than comparable figures from other denominations, as social scientists such as Rodney Stark have noted. Even Jim Penton and Ray Franz have stated they have no reason to doubt the figures on the whole, though there may always be some minor inaccuracies.
The best evidence for the reliability of the figures comes from countries where the census returns including answers to specific questions about denominational affiliation confirm the Witness figures. In fact it is very common in South American countries in particular for many more people to describe themsevles as Witnesses than are counted in the strict publisher count reported in the Watchtower.
Here is just one example. For Chile in 2002 the Witnesses reported 60,701 publishers. Yet in the census that year 119,455 reported themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses. That is much more than simply counting children as well, indicating that the Witness figures are actually quite conservative. That is not an isolated example - the same pattern of more Witnesses self-reporting occurs whenever the census asks for specific denominational affiliation. By contrast the Mormons always find that far fewer report themselves as Mormons than are claimed as members by the church.
http://www.ine.cl/cd2002/religion.pdf
Same goes for Brazil:
http://www.ibge.gov.br/home/estatistica/populacao/censo2000/populacao/religiao_Censo2000.pdf
Slim
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slimboyfat
I don't read Spanish, but I think the census for Chile even says they only count those over 15 years old - making the number of reported Witnesses even more impressive.
Does anyone read Spanish?
If the Polish immigrants are to explain the increase, I wonder if that means that a lot of Polish Witnesses are moving to Britain or whether many Poles are becoming Witnesses when they come over here? I am a bit doubtful about that explanation I must admit. Poles and other immigrants must have some effect, but I really don't think they account for all of the increase.
The Witnesses are not doing that well in my locality either, but they are doing okay in other places.
Slim
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Clam
If the Polish immigrants are to explain the increase, I wonder if that means that a lot of Polish Witnesses are moving to Britain or whether many Poles are becoming Witnesses when they come over here?
I can only give my personal experience which is only hearsay anyway(!) I've heard at my family's Congo that quite a few Eastern Europeans have latched onto the KH and the Dubs as a way of intergrating. This has caused some resentment from English Dubs, has caused a couple of marriage breaks, and has also resulted in a "shift system" for meetings.
By the way Slim how are the figures over there in Afghanistan?
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Gill
Immigrants are 'easy game' for the Witnesses!
I know! That's what happened to my parents. They just 'wanted to be in the gang!' And what a gang they chose.
I've told them before, many times, if you hadn't come to England, and stayed in your own countries you would never have fallen into the Watchtower trap.
I know for a fact that they don't completely understand the Watchtower doctrine as I can completely befuddle them in seconds. They believe the Watchtower is saying one thing, as they would understand it, when in fact it's saying another.
They cannot understand that to the Watchtower, christ is not the redeemer of the R and F ordinary Witness Great Crowd. Even when shown in writing, a mental block then goes up and I can see, 'but if we leave the Watchtower, we'll have no friends.'
Fact is, many non JWs would have been their friends over the years but the Watchtower policy of 'non association' has kept them isolated and lonely ....totally dependent on their crazy congregation for any human contact.
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dozy
My view (for what it is worth) is that the foreign language field is masking a continued small but noticable downward trend in the number of publishers. Like other posters , I have noticed very few "new ones" other than children of JWs being baptised. The number of deaths and faders / DFd never to returns must exceed this.
Roughly , the increase since 2001 marked the beginning of the surge in immigration and foreign language groups. I don't have any accurate figures , but assuming 11 COs on the "foreign circuit" , there must be upwards of 6 - 7 ,000 in these congregations & groups , including over 1,000 Chinese. Although the majority are existing JWs who are learning a foreign language , that still leaves a couple of thousand new foreign ones.
The "Polish" effect is not to be discounted , as well. I've heard that over 2,000 JW Poles have moved in to the UK over the last couple of years , swamping the locals in areas like East Anglia & London. (There are congs with 80 Poles sitting in the back , who weren't there last year). The figure seems accurate , as it would roughly tie in applying a 1 in 300 ratio to the 600,000+ Polish immigrants since 2005. Add the Russians , Lithuanians etc etc and this would explain the increase.
Just a couple of further observations. August always used to be the "peak" month , but I don't think that is the case nowadays. The cong effort used to be to get the figures up for the end of the service year , but I haven't seen any WTS sponsored effort in recent times.My own feeling is that the peak is usually in May , but I don't have any figures to back this up.
Also , if a publisher doesn't book hours in one month , but puts two reports next month , then they aren't counted as two publishers. Personally , I have always regarded the WTS as quite meticulous , even picky , in trying to be as accurate as possible with figures.
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LittleToe
Another contributing factor may be that there was plenty of stiring the pot with the "big announcement". While everyone was getting excited about "New Light", it turned out to be another lousy tract!
Any little buzz and people suddenly leap into "spiritual activity" for fear of being seen as jumping into the ark at the last moment.