Flu made in china, make em stop it

by Satanus 25 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  onacruse

  All that being said, i am ready to see some extrapolation examples.

  Well, I'll take my best shot!

  1) The Plague--total mortality estimates range between 25-40% of the world's population;

  2) The Spanish influenza--total mortality estimates range between 1-2%.

  A 1-40% mortality of a new pandemic would yield 60,000,000-2,400,000,000 deaths.

  Of course, many of the deaths due to the 1918 flu were due to complications: pneumonia, etc. Many of these would be ameliorated by modern health-care techniques--but would modern health-care facilities have the capacity to deal with such an influx of patients? The aftermath of recent catastrophes would suggest not, at least in less-industrialized countries.
• 

  Satanus

  Thanks for those, ona.

  The plague.

  In nuremberg, the death rate was only 10%, compared w 50%, generally, and the highest in china @ around two thirds. Plague still lives in various places in england (suppressing smart remark), but rarely kills, anymore.

  These few figures show that a straight forward extrapolation breaks as soon as it was exported from china. At the present day, the extrapolation has no relevance, that i can see. I suppose the germ could always get a super boost to it's dna and take over the world, but why lay awake worrying about something so remote? Worry about something more closer, like a new album from celine dion?

  I will consider your third example.

  S
• 

  onacruse

  I will consider your third example.

  Now, now, now! That simply will not do!

  I gave you two historically verifiable mortality rates, and you just limp back with a

  At the present day, the extrapolation has no relevance, that i can see.

  So, then, in repost to:

  I will consider your third example.

  I say: I will consider your first, before my third.

  Craig (of the "doing his best to take advantage of Satanus in his recuperative though debilitated state" class)

  btw: Who the heck is Celine Dion? Is she on American Idol? Then indeed, I will die from that loooooooooooooong before I die of the flu! LOL
• 

  Satanus

  I will consider your third example.

  Now, now, now! That simply will not do!

  I gave you two historically verifiable mortality rates, and you just limp back with a

  At the present day, the extrapolation has no relevance, that i can see.

  So, then, in repost to:

  I will consider your third example.

  I say: I will consider your first, before my third.

  Craig (of the "doing his best to take advantage of Satanus in his recuperative though debilitated state" class)

  Ok, ok. Look, i just meant that i'm going to answer it later. I'm going to read up on the spanish flu to see how the mortality rate went. Is it a straight line, or a curve.

  btw: Who the heck is Celine Dion? Is she on American Idol? Then indeed, I will die from that loooooooooooooong before I die of the flu! LOL

  You're a lucky bastard to be american. She is a canadian singer that was pushed through the media. She has a screaming banshee voice. Celine would have all the american idols on their knees begging for mercy after one note. Thank the gods that you don't know of her. If you win too many points in this discussion, i might be tempted to dump some of her songs on your wife. That's right, your wife. She will go absolutely gaga over her, and then, you'll be forced to listen to her for the rest of your married life.

  S

  Ps, exptrapolation #1 did not extrapolate. It crashed.
• 

  onacruse

  I'm going to read up on the spanish flu to see how the mortality rate went. Is it a straight line, or a curve.

  Now that would be interesting to know. Again, I'm by no means an epidemiologist, but based on comparable population/prey differential equation analyses modeling (with which I have a modicum of familiarity), I would suspect that the infection rate would be a "high-acceleration" curve, and the mortality rate a curve, with a lower rate of change. (Pardon my terminology...it's been a while).

  If you win too many points in this discussion, i might be tempted to dump some of her songs on your wife. That's right, your wife. She will go absolutely gaga over her, and then, you'll be forced to listen to her for the rest of your married life.

  As it is, half the time when I want to wander off to bed and want to watch some important show like "Battlestar Galactica," Kate's already got both TVs recording such drivel as you describe.

  Craig (with both feet and one arm already in the grave from another thread) LOL

  edit to add: But now you got me started, dangit! I'm gonna have to dig through my applied math books and find the correct description! (Also, to calculate the ballistic trajectory to take out your house! LOL)

  edit again to add: I found it! Schenk's Chapter 9 on Separable Differential Equations, pp. 442-446. And if you make me work this hard, you at least owe Kate and me a lunch!!
• 

  Satanus

  Ona

  Sorry, this may take a few days, as i'm back at work and stuff. However, feel free to amass evidence here for your thought, if you want. Otherwise, wait for my ass to get the time to read up on the spanish flu.

  S