Will the WTS ever show a decrease in publishers?

by cultswatter 24 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  OnTheWayOut

  The memorial and district convention invitation tracts, and the fact that a jw can remain
  active with just 15 minutes of service per month obviously help

  I think the numbers would have been negative for 2005 or 2006 (or both) if not for the
  15 minute publishers and the "reactivate-publishers-who-just-have-to-leave-flyers-and
  -speak-to-nobody" campaigns.

  They count publishers in their growth numbers, so now that they have used up these
  tricks, expect a push in 2007 for getting children started as unbaptized publishers.
  This way, they can put off negative numbers for another year.

  Keep in mind that many JW's have started living in "this system of things" after the
  1995 doctrinal change. They got married and/or had children when they would have
  waited for Armageddon if the light had not gotten brighter. Many of their children are
  8 to 11 years old. They have a bunch of these to indoctrinate for a few years.

  I expect that the "flyer" campaigns won't be as effective at reactivating publishers this
  year, but to keep costs down, they will do it anyway. The 15-minute publishers will be
  expanded (without telling the ranks) encouraging any irregular or inactive publishers over
  60 to enroll. I expect a break-even on that. About the same number of new ones will
  enroll as old ones who drop-out. Even if an old person has to do only 15 minutes, eventually
  some will say "No, i didn't do any informal preaching this month, and I am tired of it."

  I imagine tiny positive climbs for another year or two, but then all the tricks are used up.
• 

  jgnat

  Here's some stats showing the significant drop in average pioneers in 2005. Were these pioneers possibly switched over to publishers, in order to delay the announcement in drop of average publishers a little longer?

  Year	Av. Pioneers (thousands)	% Change
  97	706
  98	699	-1%
  99	738	6%
  00	787	7%
  01	787	0%
  02	799	2%
  03	825	3%
  04	858	4%
  05	623	-27%
  06	642	3%
• 

  Zico

  We won't see one for a while, I actually think we'll see a bigger than average increase this year (in comparison to the last decade anyway)
• 

  CyrusThePersian

  I'm with Zico, we will not see a decrease for a while because of the Watchtower's thrust into third world countries as well as outreaches to foreign language groups in first world countries like the USA and the United Kingdom.

  However, just like any other apocalyptic group, time is against them. As the world continues on, day after day, year after year, with no Army-geddon in sight, people will inevitably lose interest therefore change and readjustment become necessary. The WT's tactic so far has been to push Armageddon into the unknown (but real soon!) future. Even this will wear thin in time. I wonder what their future tactic will be?

  I'm sure any closet reformers at the Watchtower headquarters are well aware of the radical reform undertaken by the Worldwide Church of God ( an organization similar to the Witnesses in practice and teachings) in the late 1980's and how their attempts at mainstreaming led to the splintering from which that organization never recovered.

  ...but change is a must, unless they want to see their org die a slow painful death. I'm interested in seeing what they try. I think we are already seeing the beginnings of change with these tract campaigns, making service easier. What's next do you think? What ideas do they have up their sleeves to stave off the inevitable? It's interesting to me to watch the org in its death throes!

  CyrusThePersian
• 

  done4good

  I sometimes wonder if the expansion in the third world will actually hasten their demise. If you think about it, where will the money come from? Certainly not the third world. With numbers, (and donations), dropping off in the more developed countries, any real expansion, (expense), in the third world would only contribute towards financial hardship for the WTS. Numbers won't help them here.

  j
• 

  OnTheWayOut

  jgnat, thats profound:

  Here's some stats showing the significant drop in average pioneers in 2005. Were these pioneers possibly switched over to publishers, in order to delay the announcement in drop of average publishers a little longer?

  I do remember the organization push to make pioneers examine their service hours and drop if they were
  considerably off the required total. I think 700 hours was still safe (requirement is 840 for the year) but only
  for one year. They expected that to pick up after that one year. They very well could have shaken out the
  699-and-below pioneers in 2005 to get an increase in regular publishers, then kept the 700-and-above for
  another year, so they could shake them out the next year.

  I learned something today. Thanks for reminding me that the organization is all about numbers and legalism.
• 

  Mum

  As long as there are people who feel disenfranchised, alienated and broken in spirit, cults will thrive. Human development, education and a higher standard of living can help most.

  If the WT wants to keep some power, it can remake itself. After all, a few years ago the Worldwide Church of God went mainline and is still thriving.

  Regards,

  SandraC
• 

  johnny cip

  I don't know why so many here trust the wt's numbers? i don't trust anything the wt prints, including thier #'s. 75-85% of all the jw kids i grew up with back from the 60's-1980's are out. and my youngest brother that is 16 years my junior. says he know very few from him time that are still jw's. here we are talking aBOUT 200-300 jw kids. with less than 40 still active if that , i can't even count 10 out of the over 100 jw kids i knew personally. but all their parents are still in. jw kids have been dropping like flies for decades . the wt is lying. the kids/young adults are leaving by the bus loads. john
• 

  zack

  Whatever the net increase may be over time hides the fundamental number:TURNOVER

  How many actually STAY a JW for a lifetime? That compared to Baptists, Catholics, Mormons, etc....

  More and more are leaving. In time this cannot but help to create a critical mass of Ex-JW's that will far outnumber JW's.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Jgnat,

  I hate to rain on your parade (that's not true actually) but the average pioneer figues only appear to drop in 2005 because in that year in the report they split the figures up between aux. pioneers and pioneers + special pioneers. So the eqivalent figure for 2005 to compare with 2004 was really 623,308 + 219,926 = 843,232. Sheesh, I'd have thought you coulda worked that out.

  Slim