It seems that most religions break off into branches. Christians from Jews, Lutherans from Catholics, etc., etc. I ran across a group in Seattle on the net that still follows the old C.T. Russell teachings.
Scandal could drive people away. Another high-ranking official like Franz was could do it.
Problem is, the JWs (at least when I was one) remain so anonymous in a way. There were GB groupies who knew the names of all the GB members. To me and most of the people I knew, they were just some anonymous group. Didn't know their names and didn't feel like I needed to. I think people will follow a revolution out the door if there is a spokesman that you can line up behind. I just don't see anybody but the pres. with any sort of name-recognition clout among them.
Ray Franz stood out when he left. The small article about him in Time was circulated and it made him a celebrity in a way. When I found out he had a book, I found a way to find one. Many others have left because of his book too.
There's the possibility that another high-ranking official will defect. I don't think they could cause a splinter group. They'd more likely pull people away like Franz did. But then again, I'm the outsider now. I think a JW who sees the JWs aren't the "true religion" wants to turn to something else. It's what's engrained in them. If not this, then what? Franz didn't really tell anybody what to go believe or what religion to join now. If he had, I think there would have been a splinter. Somebody who wanted to start a religion probably could do what Franz did, then tell them what to believe now.
Problem still is who. Last I heard, they were grafting in new, younger GB members. The old 1935 ones aren't going to defect now (if any are still around) and the new ones (in my opinion) would be second-class GB members and not be as highly respected. Could they generate a following? And how?
The web can reach a lot of people. Maybe this would be a way for an ex-official to reach people and build a following.