The Empire State building was hit by a B25 not a B52 - the building suffered big damage. It was a turbo prop and was carrying considerably less fuel than the planes that hit the WTC. The velocity of the strike and hence rate of change of momentum and thus force would be lower.
So who moved Ockham's Razor? interesting take on 9/11 conspiracy theories
by coffee_black 56 Replies latest social current
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coffee_black
In the case of 9/11 theories, first of all, labeling them conspiracy theories is an ad hominem attack
Huh? I hate name calling and personal attacks and I don't see that here at all.. With all of the differing theories out there...what else what other term/terms would you use? I think Conspiracy (group planning and execution) and theory (unproven explanation) are accurate descriptive terms.
Coffee
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Leolaia
When I hear someone say that the towers were not demolitioned, I think, "Really" with a sarcastic tone in my voice. "It sure looks like a demolition to me, and to EVERYBODY.
It doesn't look like a CD to those who do them:
http://www.implosionworld.com/Article-WTC%20STUDY%208-06%20w%20clarif%20as%20of%209-8-06%20.pdf
It should also be apparent to anyone who does CDI that there was no opportunity or evidence that such a massive (the largest CDI operation in history) preparation operation had been done. The burden of proof is on the person arguing that such a thing was done in secret, that the towers were "demolitioned".
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funkyderek
Shawn10538:
I have used Ockham's Razor many times to argue my point in this or that. but one thing about it; it is not a proof of anything at all.
Nobody ever suggested it was. It's a rule of thumb and it's a good one. If you see a vaguely equine shape in the distance you are probably justified in assuming it's a horse. It may turn out to be a zebra but (unless you live in Africa or are at the zoo) most of the time it will be a horse. Assuming it's a unicorn is a thoroughly bad idea.
In reality complexity exists on every level. if we were to apply Ockham's Razor to everything, we would never have invented rockets, cured diseases etc.
How so?
The truth of the matter is that things are exactly as complex as they happen to be. They are neither less complex nor more complex than they really are. just because we think it makes sense that it should be less complex, or if it is logical that it be less complex, this does not change the reality of the matter, and it doesn't take the place of, or nullify actual empirical evidence.
It's in the absence of evidence or where evidence can lead to more than one conclusion that Ockham's Razor is used. For example, many of the conspiracy theorists claim that it wasn't really a plane that hit the Pentagon but a missile. That means a hijack was faked, phone calls from passengers were faked, the plane was brought to a secret location where it and some or all of the passengers were made to look like they had been in a high-speed crash. A missile was then fired on the Pentagon and the various aircraft and body parts were transported to the scene and placed to look like debris from an impact. The security camera footage was expertly faked and hundreds of witnesses were successfully bought off. Or, the official story: a plane crashed into the Pentagon. Both are compatible with the available evidence. One of them stretches plausibility to breaking point. Ockham's Razor simply says: it's probably the other one.
Just because something is PREFERRABLE does not make it true. So, Ockham's theory does not prove anything at all. The loop hole in it is "all things being equal." It is not equal to the reality to assume that something is less complicated than it really is.
It's not supposed to prove anything.
In the case of 9/11 theories, first of all, labeling them conspiracy theories is an ad hominem attack.
No it isn't. Not even close. Calling theories that involve a conspiracy "conspiracy theories" is not any sort of attack. It's using words to describe the thing that those words mean.
It is labeling and name calling.
It is of course labelling (that's what words are for, after all) but I don't see how it's name calling.
Second, there are a lot of unanswered questions.
What rule of thumb should you use when there are unanswered questions? (Hint: It's in the title of the thread.)
When I hear someone say that the towers were not demolitioned, I think, "Really" with a sarcastic tone in my voice.
Do you put your hands on your hips and give a withering look as well? That may make you feel good but it doesn't substitute for actually knowing a little about the subject at hand.
It sure looks like a demolition to me, and to EVERYBODY.
To you perhaps, and to a certain fringe element of society, but certainly not to everybody. To me it looked like structural collapse caused by the fuel-laden passenger jets that had slammed into the towers minutes earlier. All the evidence supports this theory.
Gee, so those planes were the first planes in all of history to be completely evaporated without a single trace?
What are you talking about? They didn't evaporate. There was significant debris from both planes, but it's hardly surprising that they mostly disintegrated on impact. Obviously, you have no knowledge of engineering but a smidgen of common sense would be enough in this case.
I'm not saying I know the answers,
Good, because clearly you don't.
I'm just saying, I think we need to keep investigating 9/11. there is just too many unanswered questions.
I agree that you need to keep investigating but the answers are there, you've just chosen to ignore or reject them. Example:
And that Popular Mechanics article was just not very convincing. it bordered on the ridiculous.
If only there were a SINGLE other plane/building catastrophe that could verify that buildings would fall like a demolition upon impact, it would be easier to believe.
Or if only somebody had caught the events on tape so we could have another look at them.
But the singularity of this event is what should make everyone be very suspicious.
That is probably what makes some people so suspicious. It was an unprecedented event so people's previous experience didn't prepare them for what happened. Some people simply refused to believe that it really happened the way billions of people saw it happening.
In fact, the Empire State building DID endure a plane collision. I believe it was a B-52 if I'm not mistaken. The building is still there.
Of course you're mistaken. It seems to be a theme with you. It was a B-25 bomber as someone already mentioned. It was smaller, slower and lighter than a Boeing 767 and the pilot was trying to avoid the building, not to hit it. It still caused $1 million worth of damage.
Shawn, you don't need to be a structural engineer to work this out. A bit of common sense and a few minutes on the Internet should be enough to answer all your questions.
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Leolaia
Usually airliner crashes by themselves are unique, unprecedented events, involving a singular confluence of causes and factors, such as the structure and condition of the airplane (which, with its millions of parts, leaves innumerable room for variation), behavior of the pilot, weather conditions, etc. Often the NTSB finds a new cause or kind of failure that had never been seen before. But they do not throw up their hands and say, "This instance of Reason X is a singular event which we have never seen before, so it couldn't have been Reason X, it had to have been an 'inside job'."
The fact is, 9/11 was a unique, unprecedented event. Never had those kind of aircraft hit those kinds of buildings at those speeds with that much fuel, damaging the structure in just that kind of way, and producing fires that weakened certain kinds of structural elements to just the extent that it did. Similarly, never in history had a building (WTC3, the Greek Orthodox chuch) been completely flattened by debris from another building. One could come up with many other unprecedented things about 9/11.
For everything that happens, there is a first time. When that first time happens, the fact that it never happened before doesn't mean that it didn't happen or couldn't happen. No other steel bridge ever collapsed before due to harmonic resonance. That is, until it happened with the Tacoma Narrows Bridge. Since it never had happened before, is that evidence that harmonic resonance was not the cause? Of course not. It was the first time in history that that kind of bridge with that specific structural weakness fell under exactly the right kind of conditions that produced the collapse.
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hillary_step
Shawn,
You have backed the wrong horse with this one.
The most important line in the article at the beginning of the thread is this one:
Ultimately, therefore, whether or not you buy into the government-conspiracy theory depends not so much on facts as on what you are willing to believe.
We all once fed into this abberation of thinking when we became Jehovah's Witnesses. The reason for this is that we all wanted to believe that the silly little lives we live actually have some meaning beyond the immediate. Something that seems to show that huge forces are at play around us give our lives some purpose when the reality is merely, live or be lived.
It is exciting and somehow deflates our insecurities to think that the freak of timing that allowed a few semi-educated fanatics to bring down New Yorks pride was actually something more sinister, more vast and more meaningful, but the facts show otherwise. As noted above, when a person wants to believe something, they will believe it in the face of evidence to the contrary.
This is not about 9/11, this is all about the fraility of the human condition.
HS
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Caedes
No other steel bridge ever collapsed before due to harmonic resonance. That is, until it happened with the Tacoma Narrows Bridge.
Although it in no way diminishes your point it had actually happened several times before (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angers_Bridge) and I have read that Roman soldiers used to break step when crossing bridges (Unfortunately I can't remember where I read it) to avoid the problem of resonance.
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Qcmbr
You can come down on whatever side of the argument you like but let's apply Occam's razor backwards. Lets unwind from now back to those events:
Now.
Utterly corrupt administration in charge of US and in all probability UK. The US administration is easy to look at - choice between two people who both joined an elite secret society, one of the people had their father in charge of the country. This is not democracy this is a centrally planned system - in the UK we historically put crowns on families who ruled and played power games and only a few key families ran UK affairs for centuries. In the US we are closing in on a Clinton double act - this is NOT democracy - the US is full of clever / principled / statesmanlike people who could - should be in line for voting but only a few families who are corrupt are actually available to vote for. Corrupt?? Oh yes - Bush - in Saudi pay , Clinton - land scandal and bare faced liar ("I did not have...") and these are just the things that are revealed.
Two sovereign states that have NO proven link to any US attacks - certainly the administrations of both countries had nothing to do with terrorism in the US / UK now under occupation. Forget any grandiose ideas of liberation. Troops that invade a country, depose the rulers, put in a puppet regime, award all reconstruction work to home firms paid for by the resources of the territories under control are hostile occupiers. The Germans did it and we beat them twice - now the US and the UK are doing it - we are invaders. The people paying the price are those who always pay for war - 19 year olds and innocent covilians - the people who make money - those in raw materials (like oil) and military manufactures. Please refer back to ruling elite in US and look at conflict of interest issues.
Corrupt puppet regime and pseudo administration in place (rogue organisations operating for huge profit outside of law - killing, raping and pillaging at will - Blackwater and dare I say it US/UK military.
Guantanamo Bay - modern day torture and concentration facility. Extreme rendition and other torture usage proven. Abu ghraib. US military/CIA proven to be utterly corrupt, immoral and sadistic. The swastika has been replaced by stars and stripes.
Private rights removed in UK and US wholesale - basic rights denied. Stop and search, phone tapping and police state here now.
US and
Then
Weapons of mass destruction lie given to public DESPITE weapons inspectors saying they found none. Blair and Bush lie again and again (UK caught with pants down when report used as one basis of war proven to be largely the work of a graduate if I remember rightly.) Focusing on Blair - no real apology and no culpability for utterly failing his public trust - in same administration top minister sacked for helping a family worker to get faster UK visa - this is utterly corrupt no matter which way you look at it. Bush spending tax money like water and friends and family personally gaining cash.
Incredible military operation in place in unbelievable time. US and UK military in place for a full scale modern invasion of two countries including funding and political players.
No WMD ever found. No acts of terrorism. No regime change in worse countries - including those actually with WMD aimed at West.
Some of the supposed terrorist hijackers are reported as alive living in other countries (this may be discardable as this is highly debateable.)
The point in question
Unbelievable Al Qaeda own goal / stunning success. Three sets turbo prop trained pilots manage to pilot three passenger jets across US airspace and hit with utter accuracy three targets smack on. Most astonishing is Pentagon hit which impacts spot on without fouling up on lawn outside. Any real pilots on this site should be able to confirm that circumstances aside this is piloting skill of sheer breathtaking excellence x3. These people trained in the US in small aircarft - it normally takes hundreds of air hours before even being considered for larger aircarft and certainly not as pilot. Three buildings pancake in dubious circumstances - one maybe but three is a miracle Allah works miracle for Al Qeada and Bush/Blair military plans. Mini mirale at site - during disaster wallet of hijaker is found on ground having survived where steel beams apparently do not!!! Words from Minority Report come to mind .."orgy of evidence." Whatever people think about whether this was an inside job complete with squibs and insurance scams or a terrorist attack of sublime genius and Hollywood movie luck so be it. What is not in doubt is the perfection of the timing - it could not have happened at a better time or in a better way for leadership of the US/UK. If this was a coincidence it was a fortuitous coincidence of staggering proportions - rather like the Reichstag fire that propelled Hitler to power (but now we know that that was very likely to be an inside job.)
Before
Excuse needed for war on countries in Middle East - public opinion not in place.
'Devout' muslims willing to die for Allah but not willing to follow Koran on more basic tenets such as morality and alcohol.
Plan made to invade Afganistan and Iraq way beyond mere military war games. These are detailed in depth plans that are to be used. -
coffee_black
It just dawned on me that I have the perfect expert to discuss this with. This Wednesday I'm attending a monthly dinner meeting of CSI (Construction Specifications Institute) There are a lot of engineers and architects and spec writers in who attend every month. Usually at my table is an engineer who works for a company who does forensic diagnosis of structural failure. It's his company's job to determime what caused the building to fall...the bridge to collapse....tunnel to leak...etc. They do work all over the country, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were actually called in to do their thing on the World Trade Center . I'll get his input..should be fascinating...and let you know what he says.
Coffee
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Leolaia
Ah, I should have specified it as wind-induced harmonic resonance.