To me, the 3.1% growth for 2007 is not surprising considering the strategic moves WT leadership has made in recent months. After years of hardly an announcement or change of any significance, in fairly quick succession over the last 18 mos. several changes were announced and either have already or will be soon instituted. Note:
1) Late in 2005 it was announced that the Awake! magazine would be monthly instead of semi-monthly and the articles would be less generic and more pointed in "announcing the kingdom message". This was instituted in Jan 2006 and the magazines even began to look different. There have been several key articles (Oct 07 "Keep Your Children Safe") and there have been two "special" editions and distribution campaigns (Sept 06 - "Is There a Creator" and Nov 07 - "Can You Trust the Bible?"). This created some intitial excitemet among the friends although the newness is wearing off quickly.
2) The April 06 KM announced a special campaign to advertise the "Deliverance at Hand" district conventions. This was a global campaign wherein each publisher in each congregation was to distribute up to 50 special full page invitations to the convention. This was the first year of this type of campaign and while it was generally a bomb with the public, it did generate some excitement among the friends and it was an easy way to make time in service.
3) The Sept 06 KM announced the special campaign to distribute the Kingdom News #37 "The End of False Religion is Near". This was a global campaign that ran from Oct 16, 2006 to Nov 12, 2006. While the campaign was generally a flop (and you could say has even backfired considering the recent pedophile lawsuit settlements), to most Witnesses this kept them busy, was an easy way to make their time, and the "doom and gloom" message was effective in instilling more fear and trepidation in them.
4) The Nov 06 KM announced that in Jan 07, each bookstudy will be studying the "Revelation Climax" book. There was a front page article and a full study schedule on p.7 which showed that this study will continue until July 2008. The Sept 06 KM contained an insert of the adjustments to the "Revelation Climax" book, but then it was announced that a new "revised" version was being printed - both of which generated much discussion and anticipation. Make no mistake, each time this book has been studied there has generally been a spike in urgency among the friends - especially newer ones who have never studied it before.
5) The Feb 07 KM insert announced a "Special Campaign to Advertise the Memorial" using a full page colorful invitation (instead of the small handbill) with a striking illustration of a tortured Jesus with a crown of thorns on the front. This was the first time a campaign like this has been used - similar to the campaigns used the past two years for the district conventions. A pure stroke of genius on the part of the WT leaders to institute such a blowout campaign during the memorial season when there are more auxilliary pioneers than any other time of the year. No wonder the memorial partakers went up by 348 from the 2006 year! Expect this campaign and a similar increase in partakers in 2008.
6) The April 07 KM again announced a special campaign to advertise globally the 2007 district conventions. This was the 2nd year of this global campaign wherein each publisher in each congregation was to distribute up to 50 special full page invitations to the convention. From all indications this campaign bombed with the public even more than the previous year, and unlike the 2006 campaign, it generated even less excitement among the friends.
7) The July 07 KM front page article was entitled "Exciting Changes for The Watchtower!" where it was announced that beginning in Jan 08 there will be two different editions - a "public" edition and a "sudy" edition both of which would be monthly instead of semi-monthly. There has been much discussion about this among the friends for months and the excitement is high going into 2008.
8) In late fall of 2007, a letter was read to all congregations stating that beginning in Jan 2008 the public talk will be shortened to 30 min (from 45 min). Not much else has been said on this, but the impending change has created much discussion among the friends.
9) Most recently, as announced at the annual meeting in New York in Oct 2007, beginning in 2008 there will be a week- long Elders school conducted at Patterson for all elders with a special program for P.O.s. At least here locally there has been much discussion and anticipation by some elders, while others are less enthused. I figure this whole thing is less about instruction but about gaining more control over the minds of those who attend. I sense desperation on the part of the WT leaders here.
These successive announcements & campaigns have been particularly effective on the most zealous JW's - especially the newer ones in keeping them stoked up. Still, there is a level of discontent among the long-timers that I have not seen since the 1975 era - especially among elders and their families. Expect this to continue as we get further from 1914, the annointed numbers go up, and the WT leaders explanations of things gets more implausible (the Rev. book is almost comical), the hidden scandals of the WT Society (UN and Pedophile issues) become more widely known, the realization by more and more that the "faithful & discreet slave" is really the GB, and that increasingly the world-wide work donations are being used for legal expenses and to pay settlements.
As far as future growth, here in my city in central North Carolina USA, things are not going well for English speaking congregations at all. At least two english speaking congs have been dissolved (due to poor attendance) and merged with other congs, one KHall project has been cancelled even after the land was paid for, and the shortage of English speaking elders and servants is higher than I have ever seen. Locally, there have been several new foreign language congs and groups formed and this is where all the growth is and I see this trend continuing for 2008.