by Dogpatch 111 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
The figures look interesting but I think I may have misunderstood what the last column (% increase over 5 years refers to) because, for example, in Taiwan, from 4,753 (2003) to 6,054 (2007) is not a 127% increase. My basic maths is admittedly rusty, but how do you arrive at 127% increase?
It should be 27% the later figure is 127% of the former, or a 27% increase.
Does anybody know how the WTS calculates peak publishers? It can make a big difference. For example, the peak of 6,957,852 could mean that there were that many publishers in a single month. Or it could be the total of the individual peaks of the different nations. This could be different because different countries could have their peaks on different months, so the figure would be higher than the actual total of publishers in any month. If they did it by congregation then they would get an even higher figure. I guess the extreme would be to do it by publisher. If you go out even once in that twelve months your personal "peak' would be 1, so the figure would refer to the total number of publishers who reported time that year, not any specific peak at one time.
Has the WTS ever clarified how they do this. If not, it gives them a lot of latitude in abusing the figures. Also, did anyone notice that the rate of growth almost doubled from 1.6% to 3.1% while the number baptised only went up from 248,327 in 2006 to 298,304 in 2007. Assuming the death rate remained about the same, this would either mean that they lost fewer people to DA and DF (seems unlikely given the media exposure of the pedophilia scandal) or they reactivated a lot of inactive ones or they changed their accounting methods.
Does anybody know how the WTS calculates peak publishers
There is something very fishy about the peak numbers. Anyone with the Library CD can check this by looking at the monthly stats in the KM (you can only get the US numbers, of course).
These are the US publisher stats for 2006:
US Publisher stats for 2005:
There is something very wrong about this. If the peak numbers are fabricated, then the averages will also be distorted.
penny
Yes, those are some big jumps in August. I did some primitive numerical analyses (when people make up numbers they tend to fall into certain patterns that can be picked up through statistical means) on the WTS stats to check for fraud. I didn't find any problems with the other stats, but the peak numbers were suspicious. However, the sample size wasn't big enough to draw any definite conclusions. I would like to find a computer program that could do a better job and check several years stats. This could provide a better indication of whether they are being honest.
I'd like to get hold of some KMs from Australia to see if the August numbers are higher here. I do have a couple of KMs from 2002 and the August figures are not much higher than previous months. So maybe it's only the US that does that.
Maybe there is something unusual about August in the US? Holidays, nice weather?
Are parttakers the same as fds/anointed.End of system close per 2000 wt because most of anionted are elderly and some will be on earth when armie hits.
Bob
I wouldn't be surprised if August is the peak every year. September is the start of the new service year, not January. This is done so that all the foreign countries are able to total their numbers and send them to Crooklyn between August and November, so that the previous service year can be reported in December for the January publications.
So, here's how it plays out in all the individual local congregations: It's the end of August. The usuals turn in their reports for August like every other month. It's also the end of the service year, so the Cong Secretary has to finish filling out the cards and a report to the branch. Frantic time August to get some missing months filled out to close the books for the service year. You track down a few missed ones from the vacation months that you missed back in May, June, July and that adds maybe 5-7 extra reports for August. While your actual number of publishers and the average would still be the same, the report count might be:
May 65
June 64
July 66
August 72
Your actual publishers were 66 or 67, but the late reports added in August create an artificial peak of reports, not publishers.
Oh, and I meant to add that even if it is a genuine 3% increase, that's terribly low. You would think that Jehovah, Jesus, the angels, the resurrected anointed, and the Holy Spirit would be able to crank out 20% growth easy every year. From my view, aside from occasional spurts of zeal, the r&f are getting tired of being hounded to do more. Oh, and you can subtract my 1 for a more accurate figure.
Or maybe they're using Luke 19:40 for new light and are counting rocks as publishers.
Thank you to everyone for your hospitality (with one outstanding exception).
Perhaps I should clarify. Institutions with as much entrenched physical and human capital as the WTBTS move with a relatively glacial pace. There are many people who know that problems are significant but cannot move because their livelihoods are at stake.
The problem comes when change is necessary (and it is slowly dawning on the leadership that change IS necessary) but there is reactionary resistance against change. Remember the disaster that was the French Revolution. The Jacobins and the Committee for Public Safety created a terror state to instill "law or order" amidst the chaos after the monarchy was overthrown.
The reference point for ex-JWs has to be glasnost and the fall of the Soviet Union. The economic pressure to reform is going to become great on the WTBTS as the child molestation issue and the blood issue force more legal expenses while the membership's contributions begin to slowly dwindle.
I think the best way to consider this increase is to consider the "lifecycle" of a JW. How many are lifers; how many are transient? This is why "intensity of belief" is important. Too often posters deem the JW's to be a cult. In some ways that is correct. But it is a cult in the same way that Stalinism is a cult.
The WTBTS, like an big organization, is inherently political and social. The key is to look at its rhythms and not its statistics. The WTBTS is still stuck in the mid-20th century. But economic and social realities will force it to change.
And remember new people bring new customs and new ideas. (Why else would this board accept new posters?) It works the same with the WTBTS. Just because they have a few thousand more people doesn't mean that they are cookie-cutter JWs. Sometimes their teachers are troubled by the corruption and intellectual dishonesty as well.
Change is coming. It is slower than most of us want. But it is coming. The newer generations are better educated, better informed and less apocalyptic. This cultural shift will bring a change.
Face the future with confidence. You are winning-slowly.
"Change is coming. It is slower than most of us want. But it is coming. The newer generations are better educated, better informed and less apocalyptic. This cultural shift will bring a change."
Welcome to the board, nyetx.
I slightly disagree with some aspects of your analysis. Changes are not coming; they are happening right now. Do you want a bigger change than the 1935 cut-off date? The re-interpretation of the 1914 generation? The increased number of anointed? etc.?
What some have said is that the WT Society is a master of effecting changes in a very slow motion. So, only a few people will realize and, even so, only after some time have passed.
My sister, for instance, once scoffed the anointed number that refused to come down. She might react angrily now. Nobody knows. My hope is that my telephone rings. I hope!
Observador.
