For You Know: Life in 1960

by larc 28 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  larc

  You Know,

  You have read one person's analysis and absorbed it well. You have never taken the time to look at facts behind the analysis, which I have attempted to do for you. Now, the theorist that you idolize wrote an article about forecasting, kinda sorta. What he actually wrote was a model of economic events, that I have demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt to be wrong. So, let me describe for you several methods of forecasting, which your hero either does not understand or simply ignores.

  Least Squares Fit: This works when data forms a linear function and one can extrapolate into the future from that linear function.

  Exponential Models: This works well in the long run for productivity and stock market increases. The exponent for productivity is +1.02 for the last 35 years, not -1.02 as LaRouch hypothesized. This means that productivity doubled in 30 years. It was not cut in half. The exponent for the stock market is 1.12.

  Cyclical Models: If one assumes a linear model during good times, one assumes that they will continue forever. If one assumes a linear model during bad times, one comes to believe that everyone will die of starvation. Now, the reality is that most factors cycle. Things vary from good to bad. As a society, we never end up in utopia and we don't end up in total devastastion either. I think this is the most fundemental concept that you do not grasp.

  Well, You Know, I think you have potential. You are a bright young man and you have confictions. Those are good characteristics. I hope I have broadened you horizens.
• 

  larc

  You Know,

  I don't think you understand the implications of some of your own words. You stated that the "Rust Belt" has not fully recovered. Now, if you believe in a linear model, then the rust belt should be destroyed by now. To say that it has not fully recovered, leads to the admission that it is on its way back up again. In other words, it fits a cyclic model, not a linear model.

  What say you?
• 

  larc

  You Know,

  Another thing we need to discuss is the Bretton Woods agreement. First of all, you give too much credit to Roosevelt and to much blame to Nixon. The fact is that the agreement was hammered out with representatives from 44 countries, from July 1 to July 22, 1944. The fact is that the system worked up until 1971. At that time there was a system failure. That is, the system was about to collapse. A temporary fix was put in place that worked for a year or two and then a better solution was found.

  You Know, much of the Bretton Woods system is still in place. What aspect of it that has been changed would you like to see restored, and why?

  Also, your hero, LaRouch is long on problems and short on solutions. After reading much of his material, I could only find two solutions. Set up tarrifs and freeze the value of currency. I think these are stupid ideas in today's economy. Perhaps, I am missing something. Perhaps you can explain LaRouch's solutions to today's economic problems.
• 

  larc

  You Know,

  I asked you to provide facts to back up your assertions, which have not done, nor do I think you will. You stated, for example, that it was government funding that was spent to miniturize computers for the space program and that is what lead to the personal computer. I said that, that is simply not true. Since you will not spend the time to find out the facts, I will give them to you.

  The concept of the integrated circuit was conceived in 1952 by G.W. Dummer at Britain's Radar Establisment. In 1958, Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments and Robert Noyce at Fairchild both indepently built the first integrated circuit. After this research and developement was done in a corporate environment, the first application was in Air Force computers and in the Minute Man Missle. The important fact here is that private enterprise came up with the technology, not government sponsored reseach. That is not how the government works. The government requests applications, once techology has been developed. This is also true of the transister which was invented at Bell Labs in 1948 by Bardean, Shockly and Brattain.

  Most technological inovations have been as result of corporate R&D funding, not government sponsorship. As I said before, the government sends out bids to have something built, once the technology is in place. They do not create technology.

  Some inventions, like the integrated circuit are unexpected surprises. Here is what Kilby the codesigner of the integrated circuit had to say, "What we didn't realize then was that the integrated circuit would reduce the cost of electronic functions by a factor of a million to one. Nothing had ever done that for anything before."
  
  This amazing break through in technology was not created by government. Government took advantage of it once it had been invented.

  Once again, You Know, you simply don't know what you are talking about.
• 

  larc

  You Know,

  I guess this thread is going to be a repeat of the other one, where I provide a large number of posts with no response from you. In my last post, I showed how miniturization occured, which not the way you said it occured. Now, I will address another assertion of yours, to wit (a Rutherford expression), the assertion that our manufacturing capability is so poor that we can not take care of ourselves. As I said, this is simply not true. I even gave you a hint as to how you could find this out. It has to do with our trade deficit as a percent of our GDP. Now, if this was a big percent, then that would indicate that you are correct. That would mean that our manfacturing capability has gone to hell and we can't care of our selves. The fact is, the percent of our trade deficit as a percent of GDP is only 2%. Now, I think you would agree that, that is a small number.

  You Know, I know your mind is made up. I'm sorry that I have to confuse you with facts.
• 

  Naeblis

  You Know has always asserted that people insult him because they can't argue against his theories. Now you come along willing to put in the time to totally humiliate him and he doesn't know what to do. LOL You've shattered his little internet world. The only thing he can do is show up every few weeks, call you stupid, and leave. You've ruined him Larc. Good job :)
• 

  TR

  Well, YK did a fantastic job of avoiding Seeker's post. Nice non-rebuttal, YK. Why am I not suprised?

  TR

  I'm gonna make mince meat outta that Osama!
• 

  TR

  YK,

  I couldn't find a pic of an ostrich with his head in the sand, so I'll have to use this one:

  I'm gonna make mince meat outta that Osama!
• 

  Satanus

  bttt for you knows convenience