That's why they have such catch phrases "But as for me, determined I will be, to serve in loyalty..." and "Loyal submission in recognition, this to our God we owe...". Such are designed to prevent people that are in but not producing any results from walking out.
British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers
by slimboyfat 88 Replies latest jw friends
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Borgia
Interesting read!
The rewards of membership are found in possessing and proclaiming the truth, rather than in access to rituals, emotionally uplifting worship, or a range of social opportunities.
note "emotionally uplifting worship" and "range of social opportunities". Assemblies are for some persons an utter flesh market where they can finally check out the hot studs and girls.............An assembly can be emotional uplifting if you allow to get carried away by the whim of today. But if you use your head......well........it's rather an emotional wearing experience. Ther meetings.....well.......the ROI here is quite bleak....you spent 4 hours (2 hours prep + 2 hours attendence) and what do you get?
Meetings resemble training seminars more than conventional religious services.
Sure enough. The 5 minute song and prayer are only about what you need to do. Check the any song. Hardly any song is related to praise. But mostly related to what you need to do...e.g. you are falling short again! So is prayer. It in effect says this: listen Lord, we're stupid so we need you spirit to understand your ideas. On top of being stupid for not understanding we're being stupid for sinning. So we need you spirit to do the right thing. We know you find sinning heavily offensive (why do we like it by the way?) but maybe please.....you want to forgive us. Let's now start with the training seminar.......
The difficulty is that if recruitment appears to be the raison d'etre of activity,
It not only appears to be, it is propounded as the main reason the "christian cong" exist at all. Social cohesion is only a means to an end..........
and then for extended periods not merely the individual publisher but the entire congregation experience no success, the consequential loss of morale could be substantial.
This ties in with uplifting assemblies. That's why you have 3 of which one is a biggie. Read "merchants of deception" and you'll see it is a clever ploy to keep people attached.
If members stay firm in their faith
That's the problem, is it not. Many members to not stay firm in their faith. Check out the WT's and you'll soon find that faith in the visible representation of the WTS is important to remain a strong going JW
and enjoy the solidarity that comes from mutual striving (however fruitless),
Although there is encouragement to disciple making.......I fail to see the mutual striving. Maybe a covert jealousy. But the interesting thing is it does not invoke a major thrust to improve own skills and opportunities. I wonder how deeply entrenched this disciple making wish actually is?
the position is sustainable.
As we all know the growth comes from a few areas: foreign language (poor bastards who all want a better life in a country where they have social isolation) and kids. 67% is falling away.......
If they are more like members of a pyramid scheme that must continue to grow in order to survive, however, the prospects may be bleak.
Quite a mathematical approach.....what this does not take into account is one major spoiler: END TIME!.........
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dozy
Interesting article. I would go for the stagnation rather than collapse scenario , however (assuming one of the nuclear threats to “the truth” doesn’t materializes - a major schism / high level scandal or WCG style acknowledgement of failings / profound change of doctrine (eg scrapping blood ban / 1914) / financial crisis.)
2 factors not mentioned in the article have to be considered.
(1) Huge hurdle in leaving JWs
(2) “The rewards of membership are found in possessing and proclaiming the truth, rather than in access to rituals, emotionally uplifting worship, or a range of social opportunities.” I venture to disagree – I think the primary motivation of most JWs is the social circle – especially in mature JW countries where most JWs are 2 nd , 3 rd or even 4 th generation , with numerous interlocking family members & friends. Most JWs accept that there is very little “reward” in the ministry & go through the motions. They aren’t motivated or even expected to produce any recruits.
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Doubting Bro
Very interesting article. I tend to think that stagnation and then a slow but steady decline mainly due to the reasons that Dozy brings up. I know there are a lot of folks who don't understand/fully believe the theology but who are JWs because all their friends and family are and to leave would mean to give them all up. The price is very high to leave.
Now, if something big happened and family groups decided to leave together, then it could come crashing down very quickly. I just don't seem them doing anything to upset the apple cart.
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Meeting Junkie No More
Wow - I fully concur with what this guy is saying. I think there's a tipping point coming, and once that critical stage is reached (within the next 5 years - 2014), the exodus will be EN MASSE. If I were a dub, and saw congregations shrinking massively and whole families leaving, something in the rear recesses of my mind would start going off and I'd be tempted to want to find out what is leading so many away, all AT THE SAME TIME! Eventually word of ongoing deception by the higher-ups in what is being dispensed to the rank and file will spread, and just like leaven (but this time in a GOOD WAY!), info will spread through the entire mass. I foresee this as a good thing, because at least people will not feel like they're the only ones who were duped; they'll have even more kinship with each other, because it will be a SHARED REALIZATION. Media attention focussed on the phenomenon will only help speed the downfall. Looking forward to interesting times ahead.
You just can't stop the flow of information! At present, the congregations (not counting 3rd world countries, but they will eventually follow) are full of people inwardly quashing doubts, but simultandeously wondering if they've been had. Still going to the hall out of habit - but many staying home 'ill' (basically sick of the whole charade!).
So many now openly admit that the world 'is FULL OF GOOD PEOPLE', and use that as the reason why they are doing the preaching work. That's a huge disconnect from previous bs that we have to rescue 'worldlies who have been deceived by Satan'. In my opinion, once you realize there are a lot of 'good people' in the world, the whole US vs. THEM mentality of the JW's begins to break down. HALLELUJAH!
Just my 2c
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sir82
If I were a dub, and saw congregations shrinking massively and whole families leaving, something in the rear recesses of my mind would start going off and I'd be tempted to want to find out what is leading so many away, all AT THE SAME TIME!
Is it a coincidence that as of January 2009 the monthly publisher counts have been dropped from the Kingdom Ministry?
I.e., assuming such shrinkage occurs, would JWs know about anything happening beyond their own congregation, or congregations sharing their Kingdom Hall, or at most within nearby congregations within their circuit? Might they think that what they see is just a local phenomenon and that in other parts of the country / world, things are going well?
Does the Society have an inkling of something coming that might prompt such a large defection?
Fun times for speculators!
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Olin Moyles Ghost
I'm not buying it. The author's premise is based on JWs becoming discouraged/disillusioned because of lack of success in converting people in the ministry. Well, as anyone who has been a JW should recognize--JWs don't care whether they convert anyone...they just go out in service to count time and keep the elders off their backs.
I venture to say that (at least in the U.S.), a majority of publishers have never had a Bible Student outside their family progress to baptism. I know folks who have pioneered for years and never brought anyone to baptism. It doesn't stop them from pioneering--much less cause them to leave the org.
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slimboyfat
I think it's interesting to note that while many assume the Internet is having a big impact on Witness growth this author does not mention it at all in his analysis of possible reasons for declining rates of growth. He also fails to mention, what I personally believe is a more important factor in recent stagnation, which is the abandonment of the "generation" teaching in 1995 which effectively meant Armageddon was postponed indefinitely.
Social ties are of course important, but would they be enough to keep people going if they en masse no longer believed in the religion or felt it had lost its way? I doubt it. Many on this forum seem to assume that very large numbers of Jehovah's Witnesses don't believe in it any more and only keep going because of a mixture of habit, fear of shunning, and social ties. I doubt that very much. Just because many of us here are in that position there is a danger of projecting our own feelings onto others. I tend to assume that the vast majority of Jehovah's Witnesses are what they outwardly appear: people who are generally highly committed to a strict belief system that promises salvation from impending calamity if they are obedient. Otherwise how do you explain the vast sacrifices they make in their lives for the faith?
A possibility that is not explored in the article is that Jehovah's Witnesses may return to strong growth. This is because the author's central argument is that societies have a 'carrying capacity' for groups like Jehovah's Witnesses and the reason their growth has slowed is because they are approaching their limit. I am not convinced. Even if there is a 'carrying capacity' for Jehovah's Witnesses I don't think it has been reached or that that is the reason why growth has slowed down. I think internal organizational factors are much more important.
Jehovah's Witnesses have gone through periods of poor growth before, even leaving aside the period of disappointment after 1975. During the 1960s growth slowed right down almost as much as in recent years, and yet they bounced back. I don't think it should be ruled out that they could pull it off again.
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sir82
During the 1960s growth slowed right down almost as much as in recent years, and yet they bounced back. I don't think it should be ruled out that they could pull it off again.
And that growth was fully attributable to the "stay alive 'til '75!" hysteria. Without a hard date and the accompanying urgency ("only 90 more months until 1975!") the growth doesn't happen.
Another period of decent growth was from the mid-80's to mid-90's, with (1) the remaining promise of "Armageddon before the generation of 1914 dies out" and (2) opening up of the Iron Curtain and subsequent mass proselytization. Since then, of course, the "generation" teaching has changed a couple of times and religious fervor has cooled off in Russia and other Eastern bloc countries.
I.e, to grow as much as in the past, it appears they need either (a) something to whip up enthusiasm to a fever pitch or (b) a brand new virtually untouched territory.
I don't see anything happening with regard to (a). There's still too many people around, including (especially?) at Bethel who wouldn't go for a new hard (or even soft) date. And without a date, where is the sense of urgency?
With regard to (b), there's China and India and the Muslim world. I don't see anything opening up there soon.
I'm thinking stagnation will set in, with -1 to 1% growth in the more advanced nations and 2-3% in areas where the population is more inclined to clutch at any straw offering a glimmer of hope for the future.
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leavingwt
I think many of us assume the Internet will play a role in reaching unbaptized children of JWs, becuase the Internet assisted so many of us with our exit. You're correct, though. It's only an assumption. Further demonization of the Internet by Watchtower could 'stop the bleeding' in some cases. It all remains to be seen.
I personally believer, however, had my "worldly" classmates had Google on a cellphone, during my school years, some seriously truthful JW debunking would have taken place. Teachers and students wouldn't of had to settle for whatever stock WT defense I gave them, regarding indefensible beliefs.